UK can’t afford to increase defence spending despite threats, minister admits

The Government cannot afford to increase spending on defence, a minister has admitted, despite fears that the UK could be dragged into a war with Russia.

More Conservative MPs added to a growing feeling of dissent over the failure of Jeremy Hunt to increase funds in the Budget, after two ministers broke cover to demand an immediate increase in spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP.

One Tory former minister described the lack of funds as “deeply dishonourable”.

The Chancellor has insisted the Government will reach the 2.5 per cent target, from its current level of around 2.2 per cent, “when economic conditions allow”.

But in an urgent debate in the Commons on the issue, several senior Tory MPs told Defence Minister James Cartlidge the level of spending should be dependent on the level of the threat facing the UK’s security, rather than the economic outlook.

But Mr Cartlidge said: “Yes, we set the aspiration of 2.5 per cent, and the answer to that is when the economic conditions allow.

“I think it would be imprudent to commit to such a level of spending if we didn’t think it could be sustained. I think it would be the worst thing to have spent maybe one year or two years and then have to go backwards again, because we didn’t think it was sustainable. So it is about balancing affordability against commitment.”

He said that spending would increase as a share of GDP to 2.3 per cent next year.

But shadow Defence Secretary John Healey told the Commons that analysis by the House of Commons library, based on the smallprint of last week’s Budget, has revealed that next year’s defence spending will in fact show a reduction of £2.5bn in real terms.

There are growing fears that UK Armed Forces personnel may have to engage directly, as part of a wider Nato force, in a conflict with Russia as its war in Ukraine persists.

In the run-up to the Budget, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps asked Mr Hunt for the 2.5 per cent target to be met as soon as possible, warning in January that the globe was shifting from a “post-war to a pre-war world”.

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In a robust series of exchanges with Labour, Tory and SNP MPs on Monday, Mr Cartlidge insisted spending is increasing as a share of GDP but admitted the UK “thought we were in a more peaceful era – those illusions have been shattered by Putin, we’ve all had to wake up to that”.

Mr Healey said: “There is a growing gap between the Defence Secretary’s rhetoric and the reality for our Armed Forces that are charged with preparing for this new dangerous era.

“In the Budget there was no new money for defence, nothing new for Ukraine, nothing for Gaza or the UK’s operations in the Middle East.”

Sir Jeremy Quin, Tory chairman of the Defence Committee, told the minister the UK’s armed forces were “having to prepare for the pre-war phase” and added that the timing of the 2.5 per cent target “needs to be determined by the level of threat as a priority expenditure, rather than as economic conditions allow”.

Conservative MP Mark Francois, a former defence minister, said the Government’s cuts to defence are “deeply dishonourable” and it should be “ashamed”.

He added: “The Red Book, the Budget bible, shows very clearly in tables 2.1 and 2.2 that the core defence budget next year has been cut by £2.5bn, that is true.

“It ill-behoves any Government, let alone one which purports to call itself Conservative, to then try and use one off payments to Ukraine or for overspends in the nuclear budget from the consolidated fund and pretend they’re part of the defence budget, when everyone in this House knows they’re not.

“So I say to the Government, if not to the minister who I have great regard for, as the son of a D-Day veteran, more in anger than in sorrow, what the Government have done is deeply dishonourable and they should be ashamed of themselves.”

Sir Julian Lewis, Conservative chairman of the Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee, told the minister that in the past 20 years of the Cold War the UK spent between 4.1 per cent and 5.6 per cent of GDP on defence.

He added: “Does that not show both sides of the House that we have an awfully long way to go, now there’s a hot war in Europe, before we match what we used to do when there was a Cold War in Europe.”

Another Tory MP, John Baron, who is chairman of the 1922 backbench Defence Committee, told the minister: “May I remind him that it’s the first duty of any government to ensure that defence spending primarily reflects the threat rather than the ability to pay.

“We have a war in Europe, we have an increasingly belligerent Russia.”

Senior Conservative MP James Gray said he was “disappointed” by the Defence Minister’s “tepid promise” to move to 2.5 per cent of GDP.

At the weekend, Foreign Office Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan and Security Minister Tom Tugendhat broke cover to call for the uplift to 2.5 per cent immediately, while i understands that a number of Cabinet ministers have raised concerns in private about defence spending with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Chancellor.

Downing Street have insisted that the ministers’ public comments were in line with government policy.