Rishi Sunak facing political fight of his life as he wars with right wing Tories over Rwanda bill | Politics News
It was but three hours after the prime minister published his emergency Rwanda legislation and issued a “unite or die” plea to his parliamentary party that his immigration minister gave his answer, and quit government.
Rishi Sunak’s once close ally, Robert Jenrick, apparently didn’t want to unite and issued a resignation letter that clearly warned the prime minister that his policy was about to die.
He called the bill the PM was proposing “a triumph of hope over experience” as he warned that the “stakes for the country were too high for us to not pursue stronger protections required to end the merry-go-round of legal challenges”.
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The Tories are a party fearing “electoral oblivion”, with many MPs believing any chance of survival has to rest on those planes getting off the ground next April.
The question now is what happens to the prime minister as he confronts the biggest crisis he has faced by a country mile.
With his party deeply divided over how to proceed with the emergency laws, Mr Sunak has unleashed a vicious backlash on the right of the party, with not one, but two, leaders in Suella Braverman and Mr Jenrick.
There are up to 100 MPs in the right wing groups, such as the ERG, the New Conservatives, the Common Sense Group, who met this week to discuss strategy as they sought to press the PM to pull out of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) – the step they believe necessary to start the flights.
And while not all of them are willing to rebel, one figure with understanding of the factions and followings of this side of the party thinks there are 30 or so MPs willing to back Ms Braverman – enough to sink Mr Sunak’s majority.
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As for the mood, it’s sulphurous. I’m told that Mr Jenrick went AWOL after saying the bill didn’t go far enough, even though, as two sources told me, Number 10 had the lawyers the immigration minister had been consulting saying it did.
But in a sign of the growing animosity, a source close to Mr Jenrick said: “This is completely untrue. They were presented with respectable legal arguments for strengthening the bill but made the political choice not to go further.
“They were uber cautious, and as a result the bill won’t work.”
It all adds to the sense that there are a group on the right of the party ready to blow this prime minister up, with eyes, not on the general election, but what comes next for the Conservative Party.
Even those who are backing the PM’s approach last night admitted the real chance of defeat, saying: “He will be hoping that the co-ordinated nature of this might bind the rest of the party together, but there are enough of them to defeat the bill, [and] at this stage of the parliament that would be a very big challenge.”
The second reading of this bill looks set to be next Tuesday, and between now and then Mr Sunak has the fight of his political career on his hands to convince the bulk of MPs on the right of the party that the legality of this bill will work and get flights off the ground.
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The plan of attack was laid out in the PM’s letter to Mr Jenrick on Wednesday night, where he told his former friend that his departure from government was “based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation”.
A letter for Mr Jenrick’s supporters rather than the man himself, Mr Sunak said his emergency legislation would work because it “makes clear parliament deems Rwanda safe and no court can second guess that”.
The PM’s letter added: “It misapplies relevant parts of the Human Rights Act and makes clear it is for a minister to decide whether or not to comply with temporary injections by the European Court of Human Rights”.
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Mr Sunak also said Rwanda wouldn’t accept the scheme if it could be considered in breach of our international law – so what Mr Jenrick wants is a non-starter.
Two sides then at war, a sitting prime minister and the woman – and man – that would succeed him.
Over the next few days, it will be a battle for the hearts and minds of MPs as the PM’s team frantically tries to convince MPs that his plan will work and to stay the course.
It is a battle he has to win.
