UKHSA and ONS release latest Winter COVID-19 Infection Study Data

Latest update

Winter COVID-19 Infection Study shows a continued decline in COVID-19 in England and Scotland.

The latest data from the Winter COVID-19 Infection Study, an epidemiological study run in partnership by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows a clear decline in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England and Scotland in the 2 weeks up to 10 January. 

Analysis by UKHSA suggests that prevalence in the community is 2.3%, or around one in every 43 people. This represents a decrease in prevalence from 3.1% (one in every 32 people) in the previous report. 

Positivity data from the ONS indicates that of the approximately 26,000 participants who reported LFD test results in the last reporting period, 1.9% tested positive for COVID-19, compared to 2.7% in the last report. 

The most recent data shows a clear decline in prevalence in Scotland and most of the regions in England. This decline was also observed for the age groups between 18 to 74. 

Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance at UKHSA said:

This week’s data confirms the early signs of a decline in COVID-19 across the country that we saw in last week’s report. While this is welcome, it is important to recognise that this does not mean that the risk of becoming ill with COVID-19 has gone away. In previous years, we have sometimes seen a decline in early January followed by an increase over the next few weeks, so it remains important that we continue to do what we can to reduce transmission.

Those people who are most at risk of severe illness from COVID-19 can still receive a seasonal vaccination until the end of this month, and we urge anyone eligible who has not already done so to come forward. You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a COVID-19 vaccination walk-in site.

If you are showing symptoms of COVID-19 or other respiratory illnesses, you should try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are older or more vulnerable.

Previous update

11 January 2024

The latest data from the Winter CIS, from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows early signs that COVID-19 prevalence in England and Scotland has begun to decrease. Estimated prevalence fell to 3.1% (one in 32 people) across England and Scotland in the 2 weeks to 3 January, down from 4.2% (one in 24 people) in the 2 weeks to 13 December.

However, it is not unexpected for surveillance data to show a temporary change in the transmission rates of respiratory infections over the Christmas period. UKHSA and the ONS will continue to monitor the data closely to confirm whether this drop in prevalence will be sustained.

The Winter CIS was launched jointly by UKHSA and ONS in November 2023 to deliver real-time prevalence and positivity data to aid the surveillance of COVID-19 in the community and help understand the winter pressures on the NHS.

There are early signs of a fall in prevalence in all regions of England and in Scotland, with the largest decline being observed in London.

Prevalence was assessed to be highest among those aged 18 to 44 years, while the lowest rates were found in those aged under 18 years.

Positivity data among the sample cohort, reported by ONS also indicated early signs of a decrease in the rate of COVID-19.

Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance at UKHSA said:

It is encouraging to see the first signs of a potential downturn in the rate of COVID-19 infection across the country. However, we should not assume that COVID-19 prevalence will rapidly drop to low levels. It is not unusual to see a temporary change in the transmission rates of respiratory infections over the Christmas period, when schools and workplaces are closed.

It is still as important as ever that we continue to take sensible precautions to protect ourselves and those around us. If you are showing symptoms of COVID-19 or other respiratory illnesses, you should try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are older or more vulnerable.

Those people who are most at risk of severe illness from COVID-19 can still come forward for their seasonal vaccination until 31 January 2024. You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a COVID-19 vaccination walk-in site.

UKHSA and ONS will release the next set of Winter CIS results on 18 January and then revert to a fortnightly publication schedule thereafter.

There’s more information on vaccines and data estimates.

21 December 2023

The Winter CIS was launched jointly by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in November 2023 to deliver real-time prevalence and positivity data to aid the surveillance of COVID-19 in the community and help understand the winter pressures on the NHS.

The study collects data through self-reported lateral flow device (LFD) results and questionnaire responses from approximately 150,000 participants across England and Scotland, providing up to 30,000 LFD test results per week.

The latest report estimates a prevalence of 4.2% across the total population in England and Scotland. This means that approximately 1 in every 24 people could test positive for COVID-19 infection at the current time.

Prevalence rates were highest in people aged 18 to 44 years, and the highest prevalence regionally was found in London.

UKHSA is urging all those eligible to come forward for a seasonal COVID-19 vaccine before the window closes on 31 January 2024.

You are eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine if you are:

• aged 65 years or over (by 31 March 2024)
• aged 6 months to 64 years and are at increased risk
• living in a care home for older adults
• a frontline health or social care worker
• aged 16 to 64 years and are a carer
• aged 12 to 64 years and live with someone with a weakened immune system

Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance, UKHSA said:

At this time of year, the cold weather, shorter days and increased socialising mean that the potential for transmission of respiratory viruses like COVID-19 is particularly high. This, as well as the possible impact of new variants, means it’s not unexpected to see cases increasing.

If you are showing symptoms of COVID-19 or other respiratory illnesses, you should try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are older or more vulnerable.

It’s important that those people who are most at risk of severe illness and hospitalisation as a result of COVID-19 come forward for their seasonal vaccination to make sure they have the best possible protection this winter. You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a COVID-19 vaccination walk-in site.

After Christmas, UKHSA and ONS will release the next set of Winter CIS results on 11 January. This will be followed by another report on 18 January and will revert to fortnightly thereafter.

More information

Although the main vaccine delivery programme has now ceased and you can no longer book a seasonal COVID-19 vaccine online or by calling NHS 119, you may still be able to book a COVID-19 vaccine with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a COVID-19 vaccination walk-in site.

The last date you will be able to get your seasonal COVID-19 vaccine is 31 January 2024.

UKHSA estimates are based on the same underlying data as the positivity numbers reported by ONS. UKHSA’s estimates of prevalence account for the known sensitivity of the LFD assay and the composition of the study cohort.