Permutations and odds for the Championship, League One and League Two

The race for promotion is entering the final straight across the EFL, with the Championship, League One and League Two campaigns set to conclude in early May.

And after automatic promotion is secured, and relegation confirmed, from there the play-offs will decide one final promotion spot from each league.

We already know Burnley are going up, so too Leyton Orient, but who else is in contention for promotion or relegation?

Here is i’s rundown of the EFL permutations, from the Championship down to League Two…

Championship permutations

  • Promoted: Burnley
  • Relegated: N/A

How it works: First and second secure automatic promotion, third through to sixth reach the play-offs, and the bottom three are relegated

Automatic promotion

Burnley have secured an immediate return to the Premier League and could secure the Championship title if Sheffield United fail to beat West Brom on Wednesday.

Sheffield United, who lost their FA Cup semi-final to Manchester City on Saturday, are set to secure second thanks to a healthy seven-point advantage, and game in hand, over Luton Town in third – they will be promoted if they beat the Baggies on Wednesday.

Burnley players celebrate promotion to the Premier League following the Sky Bet Championship match at the Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough. Picture date: Friday April 7, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story SOCCER Middlesbrough. Photo credit should read: Richard Sellers/PA Wire. RESTRICTIONS: EDITORIAL USE ONLY No use with unauthorised audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or "live" services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club/league/player publications.
Burnley players celebrate promotion to the Premier League (Photo: PA)

Play-off spots

Luton Town and Middlesbrough have secured at least a play-off spot. The pair could still mathematically catch Sheffield United in second, but only if the Blades fail to pick up another win.

Championship promotion odds

Best odds as of 20 April

  • Sheff Utd – 1-200
  • Middlesbrough – 15-8
  • Luton – 3-1
  • West Brom – 8-1
  • Coventry – 16-1
  • Blackburn – 19-1

The battle below Luton and Boro is much tighter. Currently Coventry (66pts) are fifth and Sunderland (65pts) sixth, narrowly above Millwall (65pts), Blackburn (65pts), West Brom (63pts), Preston (63pts), Norwich (62pts) and Swansea (62pts). Both Blackburn and West Brom have a game in hand over their play-off rivals.

Relegation battle

With two games remaining, Wigan are four points and Blackpool three points adrift of safety after both winning on the weekend. Reading are 22nd and occupy the final relegation spot, just one point behind Huddersfield, while Cardiff City, Rotherham United and QPR are still not safe.

League One permutations

  • Promoted: N/A
  • Relegated: Forest Green Rovers

How it works: First and second secure automatic promotion, third through to sixth reach the play-offs, and the bottom four are relegated

Automatic promotion

A fascinating four-way battle has just seven points separating first and fourth, but it is advantage Plymouth Argyle and Ipswich Town heading into the final few weeks.

All won this past weekend, too. Plymouth are first with 92 points, Ipswich are second with 91 points, and both teams have a game in hand – three matches remaining – over Sheffield Wednesday, who sit third with 90 points. Barnsley also have a game in hand over Wednesday and with 85 points they still harbour outside hopes of making one of the two automatic promotion spots.

Play-off spots

Both Wednesday and Barnsley are mathematically guaranteed a play-off spot already, and below them Bolton, Derby and Peterborough United are vying for the two final play-off places.

Bolton (75pts) are fifth and have a game in hand over Derby (75pts) and Peterborough (73pts).

Relegation battle

Forest Green Rovers are a mighty 14 points adrift from safety and have been relegated down to League Two.

There is then just five points separating five clubs. MK Dons (43pts) and Oxford United (41pts) are currently outside the drop-zone, with Morecambe (41pts), Cambridge United (40pts) and Accrington Stanley (38pts) on course to join Forest Green unless their fortunes change.

EFL final day and play-off dates

The final day of the regular season in League One is Sunday 7 May and a day later on Monday 8 May for the Championship and League Two.

The Championship play-off final is on Saturday 27 May (kick-off 4.45pm), the League Two play-off final on Sunday 28 May (kick-off 1.30pm), and League One play-off final on Monday 29 May (kick-off 3pm) – all at Wembley.

The first legs of the play-off semi-finals will be played between Friday 12 May and Sunday 14 May. The return legs are held from 16 May to 20 May.

League Two

  • Promoted: Leyton Orient
  • Relegated: Rochdale

How it works: First, second and third secure automatic promotion, fourth through to seventh reach the play-offs, and the bottom two are relegated

Automatic promotion

Leyton Orient secured promotion last week despite losing at Gillingham. They have a seven-point lead at the top of League Two and also have a game in hand over second-placed Northampton (80pts), who along with Stevenage (76pts) are in pole position for the two remaining automatic spots.

Leyton Orient players celebrate promotion to Sky Bet League One following the Sky Bet League Two match at the Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham. Picture date: Tuesday April 18, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story SOCCER Gillingham. Photo credit should read: Joe Giddens/PA Wire. RESTRICTIONS: EDITORIAL USE ONLY No use with unauthorised audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or "live" services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club/league/player publications.
Leyton Orient players celebrate promotion to Sky Bet League One (Photo: PA)

Play-off spots

Stockport (75pts) and Carlisle(75pts) are only a point behind Stevenage, who do have a game in hand, while Salford, Bradford and Mansfield are in a right battle – all on 72 points, with one side set to miss out.

Relegation battle

Rochdale are down and could soon be joined by Hartlepool, who need to win their final two games and hope Crawley Town do not pick up another point. They would also have to overturn a goal difference swing of six goals.

What about the National League?

Wrexham earned promotion to League Two on Saturday, ending a 15-year absence from the Football League.

Notts County will have to settle for the play-offs despite a mammoth haul that ordinarily would have won the title with ease.

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