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England’s biggest enemy before next Ashes is hiding in plain sight

Such is the madness of England’s schedule that there was just a single day between the end of the Test summer and the start of the T20 series against Australia on Wednesday – and that’s only because Sri Lanka won inside four days at The Oval.

That schedule is easing from January, hence why Brendon McCullum, Test coach since 2022, is able to also take charge of the white-ball teams come the New Year.

Yet the biggest challenge McCullum faces is managing the workload of his best all-format players so they are not burnt out or injured by the time the Ashes begin in 14 months’ time.

England have 12 Tests between now and then – six in Pakistan and New Zealand before Christmas, a one-off match against Zimbabwe at the start of next summer and the five against India that follow.

Sandwiched in between all this is a white-ball tour of India starting in January and then the Champions Trophy in Pakistan that is expected to start in mid-February.

There’s also white-ball series at home next summer against the West Indies and South Africa followed by three ODIs in Ireland next September.

It’s a hell of a lot of cricket and in an ideal world, McCullum would want his best players available for as many games as possible.

Unfortunately, the world is less than ideal, with the need for player management paramount to avoid a situation where England’s best players are ruled out through injury or see their form drop off because of burnout.

The warning signs are already flashing for England, with Ben Stokes, Mark Wood and Zak Crawley all currently recovering from injury. Crawley’s fractured finger was nothing to do with scheduling.

But Stokes and Wood? England’s Test captain pulled up with a torn hamstring during the Hundred. He had just finished his first Test series in two years as a full all-rounder having undergone surgery on his injured knee last November. Why was he playing in the Hundred?

Wood suffered a thigh strain in the first Test against Sri Lanka. He has since been ruled out for the rest of the year with a bone stress injury to the right elbow he had surgery on two years ago.

Wood has been well looked after by England. But even long periods of rest were unable to prevent him suffering a major injury.

Cricket - Third Test - England v Sri Lanka - The Oval, London, Britain - September 8, 2024 England's Harry Brook walks after losing his wicket, lbw bowled by Sri Lanka's Vishwa Fernando Action Images via Reuters/Paul Childs
Brook looked mentally exhausted at The Oval (Photo: Reuters)

The 34-year-old was one of only three Test players this summer to have also taken part in the T20 World Cup in the Caribbean in June. The other two, batters Harry Brook and Ben Duckett, saw their form dip towards the end of the summer. Both had also played seven matches in the Hundred in between the West Indies and Sri Lanka Test series.

Brook, in particular, tailed off dramatically during the Sri Lanka series and his performance at The Oval was that of a player who looked mentally exhausted.

The Yorkshireman had missed the Test tour of India at the start of the year following the death of his grandmother but was part of the 50-over World Cup campaign there the previous autumn.

Gus Atkinson also played three games in that 50-over World Cup before being a squad member for the five-Test series in India . A fantastic first Test summer where he played every match followed. But he was withdrawn from the upcoming ODIs against Australia after he felt a niggle in his calf at The Oval.

Both Brook and Duckett are in the squad for those Australia ODIs. They should be rested for at least the final couple of matches, with the series ending just three days before England set off for their Test tour of Pakistan on 2 October.

Olly Stone, off the back of his first Test appearances in three years following a succession of injuries, is also involved in those Australia one-dayers and the Pakistan tour. He needs to be managed carefully with one eye on the next Ashes.

Jofra Archer, who played eight T20 World Cup games in June, will also be involved in those white-ball series against Australia.

Archer will not play red-ball cricket until next summer but his step up to 50-over cricket this month needs to be carefully managed.

England will desperately want a fully-fit fast-bowling unit for those Ashes Down Under. Having three of Archer, Wood, Stone, Atkinson and Josh Tongue, who has been out for the last 13 months with a pectoral injury, would feel like a win at this stage.

But even that modest ambition will take all the skill of England’s medical team and judgement of McCullum to become a reality.

Can England make the WTC final anyway?

England still have faint hopes of reaching next summer’s World Test Championship final – but they will probably have to win all six of their winter Tests to have a chance.

Defeat by Sri Lanka at The Oval on Monday was a significant dent to England’s hopes of making the showpiece at Lord’s next June.

But there is still a way they can get there with two 3-0 clean sweeps in their series in Pakistan and New Zealand before Christmas.

Even then Stokes’ men will be relying on other results to help them out.

One scenario that would see them qualify would be an India series win in Australia in a five-match series played from November to January, combined with South Africa failing to win one of their two Tests in Bangladesh in October and Australia doing the same in Sri Lanka in January.

If South Africa win 2-0 in Bangladesh, they would need to fail to win two of their four home Tests this winter against Sri Lanka and Pakistan not to edge ahead of England.

If as is likely, India win all five of their home Tests against Bangladesh and New Zealand before heading to Australia, any series win Down Under for Pat Cummins’ men would eliminate England from contention regardless of other results.

An India draw from one of their quintet of home matches would need Australia to beat them 4-0 or 5-0 to give either England or South Africa a chance of reaching the top two.

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