Why Man Utd and Newcastle’s Champions League exits are also a blow for Spurs

Manchester United and Newcastle’s Champions League exits may have affected the Premier League’s hopes of securing an extra place in the competition next season.

A bit like the Uniteds, we are all saying goodbye to the Champions League as we know it, with a format change making the eight groups of four a thing of the past come next season.

Europe’s premier competition is expanding in 2024-25, from 32 to 36 teams. There will be four extra places under the new “Swiss model“, and two of them will be given to the two domestic leagues whose teams have performed the best collectively in Europe the previous season.

If that sounds like a boost for the Premier League, it is, as it could become a “top five” that qualify – but England is likely to face fierce competition from the other nations where the top four also qualify for the Champions League: Italy, Germany and Spain.

Belgium, France, and other nations lower down unlikely to trouble the top two spots of Uefa’s coefficient system (for leagues, not individual clubs).

Why Man Utd and Newcastle exit is a blow

Manchester United exited Europe entirely – they finished bottom of their Champions League group and will therefore not even play in the Europa League knockouts – and Newcastle followed suit one night later.

That has already had an impact on Uefa’s standings, which are ranked based on the average performance of each club in Europe.

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Each nation therefore requires as many clubs to go as far in their respective European competitions as possible.

But while Manchester United and Newcastle may be out, six English sides remain in Europe.

And so, should Manchester City and Arsenal go far in the Champions League then the Premier League could have a chance of fifth securing a place in next year’s competition.

That could therefore mean a huge deal for whoever finishes fifth in the Premier League – currently, Tottenham are in that position, but come the end of the season it could well be Aston Villa, or even one of Newcastle or Manchester United.

Premier League table

How Liverpool, Brighton and West Ham fare in the Europa League – likewise Aston Villa in the Conference League – also has an impact.

Villa, currently third in the Premier League, therefore know their own Conference League fate could boost their chances of playing Champions League football next season – should they drop down a couple of places in the table by May.

England no longer favourites

England has placed in the top two in six of the past seven seasons, and if this change had been in place last season, then Liverpool – who finished fifth in the 2022-23 Premier League table – would have qualified for the Champions League. So too would Atalanta have done, given Italy were the second-best performers across Europe.

But for now, English sides have an uphill battle. They are currently outside the top two with Italy first and Germany second.

Uefa rankings by county

Current average of association club coefficients:

• 1. Italy – 11.857 (Seven clubs)
• 2. Germany – 11.785 (Seven clubs)
• —
• 3. Spain – 11.562 (Eight clubs)
• 4. England – 10.750 (Eight clubs)
• 5. Belgium – 9.400 (Five clubs)

Seven Bundesliga sides have played in Europe this season, with Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig all into the Champions League knockout stages. Union Berlin are out, while Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg have advanced in the Europa League and Eintracht Frankfurt in the Conference League.

Meanwhile, Italian sides Inter, Lazio and Napoli are in the Champions League knockout stages, while AC Milan drop down to join fellow Roma and Atalanta in the Europa League. Fiorentina are through in the Conference League.

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Spain have suffered the blow of two La Liga sides being knocked out of Europe entirely already. Sevilla were bottom of their Champions League group, while Osasuna could not get out of their Conference League group.

That leaves Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Real Sociedad with some heavy lifting to do in the Champions League – the same can be said for Real Betis and Villarreal in the Europa League.

All four nations who are vying for that extra spot have therefore suffered setbacks, but perhaps for England it has been the most significant with Manchester United and Newcastle now out entirely.

However, given the four nations’ respective clubs largely make up the Champions League last 16, it is a race that will only truly start to take shape come the New Year.

If City, Liverpool and Villa were to win the respective competitions in which they are the current bookmakers’ favourites, fifth place in the Premier League could yet secure a Champions League spot.

It also makes for scenarios where supporters would need rival clubs to perform well. United may need a favour from City – or Spurs from Arsenal – and that could make for some conflicted feelings.