My three-word plea for the new F1 season: Anyone But Verstappen
Consumed as we have been by the Christian Horner affair and Lewis Hamilton’s leap into the arms of Ferrari in 2025, it feels like the new Formula One season is already weeks old. However, all these soundbites, as juicy as they have been, finally fall into the turbulent air of racing cars at the opening grand prix of 2024 in Bahrain.
Last week’s test around the same Sakhir circuit delivered a withering judgment on those crossing fingers for a more competitive year. F1’s longest season spans a record 24 races, two more than took place last year. As Carlos Sainz observed after signing off with the quickest time on the third day, albeit in qualifying trim, 24 races “will feel a bit much” if Red Bull’s new car sustains over another season the gains it made across the winter.
There was some encouragement during Friday’s first practice with Verstappen grumbling about down shift issues and a car jumping all over the place. Practice is not the race, of course, and Verstappen does love a moan. A gusting wind, to which Sakhir is prone, and somewhat warmer conditions than in the race, which takes place in the early evening, were perhaps factors.
Or perhaps the quasi-zero sidepod design adopted this year after being discarded by Mercedes was playing up. The shrinkage is not total but sufficient to raise eyebrows. The new design is predicated on improved cooling and air flow. The difference to the abandoned Mercedes is in the clever radiator and brake duct packaging beneath the covers. This has allowed Red Bull to scoop out more space around the rear of the car, which creates even more downforce than last season’s winner.
If that’s the bad news, the good news is that Ferrari appears to have cured the car’s appetite for gorging on rubber when carrying a fuller fuel load. The Ferrari has always been quick over a qualifying lap, but performance drained rapidly as the tyres went off on long runs. Following a radical programme of revisions estimated at 95 percent change by team principal Fred Vasseur, the drivers report a car that is just as quick over a single lap and much more compliant over longer distances.
Mercedes too are in a much healthier place than a year ago. The wholly redesigned car with a new chassis and suspension architecture has delivered pretty much the performance suggested by the simulations, which amounts to a eureka moment after two seasons desperately trying to work out why the track and the sim were so far apart.
Testing was mostly about establishing a baseline and collecting data for Mercedes. Some call this sandbagging, suggesting the 2024 Merc has more to give in race trim than we saw last week. Certainly, Mercedes have invested heavily in a new front suspension that mirrors the pull rod system first adopted in this new period of ground force aerodynamics by Red Bull.
The suspension innovations include the capacity to make the car responsive to differing circuits in more subtle ways, a feature beyond the scope of last year’s concept. That did not stop George Russell complaining of some bouncing at the front under braking last week, and an overall lack of downforce. But the bouncing was not a consequence of chassis and floor design, which was the case with an old car prone to porpoising, and is more straightforward to fix.
As Russell also pointed out, that is the purpose of testing, and further, because the car is behaving as the simulations predicted, there will be less experimentation and more certainty in the season-long developmental race that, upgrades permitting, will ultimately determine if he has a shot at a first world title or Hamilton at an eighth before his move to Maranello.
Hamilton’s Ferrari announcement has set the driver market ablaze. Fernando Alonso’s hand went straight up to announce his candidacy as Hamilton’s replacement, cheekily observing that of the three world champions on the grid, only one is available to Mercedes next year. Alonso provided the only counterpoint to Verstappen’s dominance in the early part of 2023, posting five podium finishes in his first six races with Aston Martin.
Since Aston Martin appear to have fallen victim to McLaren’s resurgence, a move up the road to Brackley from Silverstone makes sense for Alonso and would appeal to Mercedes given the promise of instant returns that comes with the two-time world champion. Against that, Mercedes believe they have in their possession the next wonder boy, 17-year-old Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who has skipped F3 altogether to race in F2 with Prema this season after winning in F4 in 2022 and regional formulas in Europe and the Middle East last year.
Wolff is haunted at missing out on Verstappen five years ago when he opted instead to retain Valtteri Bottas to partner Hamilton. This has echoes of Sir Frank Williams dumping Jenson Button for Juan Pablo Montoya after just one season in F1 two decades ago for fear of passing up the next Michael Schumacher.
The difference in Alonso’s case is this; he is that generational driver, albeit at the wrong end of his career. And what a story it would be were Alonso to be the one to end Verstappen’s dominance with a third world title in the car Hamilton ditched. That’s for next year, of course. For this, it’s all about making a race of it again.
For what it’s worth, the quickest car on track in first practice was Daniel Ricciardo, ironically in the junior Red Bull, RB. Ricciardo was on the softer tyre, four tenths quicker than Verstappen, who when judged against cars on the mediums, was second, a tenth behind Oscar Piastri’s McLaren. Friday’s qualifying will tell us more about the outright potential of the cars before Saturday’s race delivers the ultimate verdict. Either way, as unkind as it may seem, F1 would benefit from an ABV booster jab this season. Anyone But Verstappen.
Jenson Button’s F1 predictions
By Lucy Wilde
There is a mix of realism and tempered optimism among Red Bull’s nine rivals hoping to cause disruption for the sport’s most dominant team and driver.
i explores some of the key talking points ahead of the new season with the help of 2009 world champion and Sky Sports expert Jenson Button.
Will anyone stop Verstappen?
It is less a question of “will” and more a question of “can” anyone put the brakes on Verstappen’s success this season.
The Dutchman has recorded 54 race wins, 32 pole positions and 30 fastest laps after claiming a third championship title last year. His continued dominance in 2024 feels inevitable.
Button believes the emergence of a driver that could rival the three-time championship victor this year is unlikely.
“It has to be Verstappen [to win],” Button tells i. “He’s on a high, he’s had three mega years and the team has done a great job.
Though Red Bull’s preparations for the season have been clouded by the investigation into team principal Christian Horner – who has now been cleared – their new car’s performance during testing proved they remain out in front.
In an upgrade of last year’s car, Verstappen’s RB20 was 1.1 seconds per lap ahead of the rest of the pack. His rivals have their work cut out.
Who is the best of the rest?
The non-Red Bull teams only need to look at the stats to realise what it will take to beat the title defenders. In 2023 Red Bull won 21 out of 22 grands prix with Verstappen leading 75 per cent of all laps.
Repeating this will require a first-class driver and first-class car. Red Bull may have both, but Horner fears their rivals will close the gap this season.
“I’m fully expecting there’ll be diminishing returns this year,” Horner said. “We got to the top of the curve quicker than others.”
It’s likely the field will converge. “I hope Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren get a lot closer to Red Bull. We all want more of a fight at the front. That has to be the dream for F1,” Button adds.
Ferrari are ones to watch. They ended last year with five pole positions from the final nine races and Carlos Sainz secured the only non-Red Bull win of the season in Singapore.
Who will spring a surprise?
While it would be easy to discount the teams previously destined for middle-of-the-pack status, the new season brings new car designs, fresh ambition and, inevitably, new opportunities.
Button predicts Williams’ Alex Albon could be a surprise success. “I’m looking forward to seeing the progress and results Williams can make and how far both drivers can move up the grid. Especially Alex Albon. He’s been on such good form the last two years.”
It took Williams until day three of testing to showcase their potential. Two stoppages on day one put them on the back foot but they demonstrated good race pace with Albon at the wheel.
Albon scored 27 of his team’s 28 points last year. With a new and improved car – and a new team principal in the form of James Vowles – there is no reason to underestimate his potential.
How will Lewis Hamilton fare?
With seven world titles already under his belt, Hamilton’s surprise move to Ferrari in 2025 has adding an extra layer of intrigue to this season.
While the former world champion will no doubt be looking to put a swift end to his two season win drought, Button believes he may have another year of frustration ahead.
“You’d say he’ll have more chance of another F1 title at Ferrari because he’s only got one more year at Mercedes,” Button says.
Mercedes have redeveloped their car with a new chassis and gearbox, but are under no illusions there is still a big gap to the dominant Red Bull.
“There are no miracles in sport,” team principal Toto Wolff said recently. “We need to be realistic about the odds of beating a team that is a fair chunk ahead.
“But our ambition is strong. It is Red Bull and a very successful car that are the benchmark we are aiming to beat.”
Jenson Button was speaking as Sky Sports announced the release of an AI generated track – The Greatest Track on Earth – which features sections from fan-favourite tracks across the globe.
