Home form and keeping Steve Cooper are vital for a team lacking goals
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What is likely to go well?
Between the beginning of November and the end of the season, Nottingham Forest finished 13th in the table for points, joint-13th for goals scored and 13th for goals conceded. That is the blueprint for this season. After the furore of the maddest summer in Premier League transfer window history, Forest settled down, found the right core of players and became a lower mid-table team after play-off promotion. That’s a fine effort.
The key was the home form; it will be again. Over the whole season, Forest ranked 10th in the division for home performance. The atmosphere at the City Ground was genuinely transformative. It dragged Forest on, particularly against Brighton, Southampton and Arsenal in the spring. The key will be to keep up that intensity even if things go awry during the second season.
Forest are now in a better position than this time last year, even if pre-season has been a bit sticky. Look at a selection of players in the matchday squad against Newcastle on the opening day in 2022: Alex Mighten, Jack Colback, Sam Surridge, Harry Toffolo, Lyle Taylor, Cafu, Oliver Hammond, Loic Mbo Soh, Lewis O’Brien. Forest have moved on from all of those now, to greater and lesser extents. There is less mania than before, to the extent that some supporters are moaning about the lack of transfers. It’s never dull.
What is going to be a challenge?
Injuries were a problem last season and, despite a number of appointments to address the issue, may be again. The season hasn’t yet started and Moussa Niakhate has a dislocated elbow, Felipe hasn’t appeared in pre-season due to a knee problem, Taiwo Awoniyi hasn’t been seen for weeks and Omar Richards still isn’t back from the injury that kept him out of the entirety of last season.
The theme of pre-season has been a lack of goals; that could extend into the season. Forest look to play on the counter to create chances, but too frequently last season became a little too trapped into their own third of the pitch and couldn’t make enough connections to release the pressure. If Awoniyi is out for a while, that will continue to hamper any progress.
Forest are also going to have to sort out the away form. They won fewer games and took fewer points on the road than any other team in the league, Cooper seemingly shifting between shapes but never avoiding his team conceding goals in clusters through lapses in concentration or individual mistakes.
There is also a risk of this falling apart should Cooper leave, either because owner Evangelos Marinakis gets too impatient (and Cooper almost lost his job twice last season) or because the manager is approached by a more stable club. As Forest supporters will tell you, upheaval always lies just around the corner. So far, it has been the sporting directors that have paid the price.
How has the transfer window gone so far?
The vastness of last season’s activity, in terms of both money spent and players recruited, was always going to mean that the pursestrings were tightened with FFP a real concern. Just as hard is moving on unwanted fringe players who are being paid very handsomely at Forest. That is the overriding theme of the summer: at least eight players are available for transfer but have not yet left and may well not.
Which has left Forest stuttering because they do not know the exact budgets or the amount of available space in the 25-man squad. Matt Turner has been signed from Arsenal and will have a chance to prove himself as the No 1 while a deal for the injured Dean Henderson is worked upon. Ola Aina joined on a free transfer and is likely to start the season at left wing-back.
Forest also would like another defensive midfielder and centre-back, but that may depend on the sale of Brennan Johnson to Brentford, Aston Villa or Tottenham. Ibrahim Sangare has been approached, but the finances of that deal surely only work if Johnson is sold for £45m.
Key player
Here’s the thing: Morgan Gibbs-White is clearly Forest’s best player and, if another midfielder isn’t signed, Ryan Yates’ form and fitness will be crucial. Felipe is the defensive leader.
But for pure impact, Awoniyi wins. Forest won 42 per cent of the games that Awoniyi started last season and only 15 per cent of the games he missed. He is a presence and a nuisance, capable of holding up the ball and bringing Gibbs-White and Johnson into play and scored the goals that kept Forest up. Without him, Forest lose that presence; Chris Wood isn’t the answer. So, true to form, Awoniyi seems to be carrying an injury heading into the new season.
The manager
I’m still not sure Forest realise how lucky they are to have Cooper. He took a team from the bottom of the Championship, without top-flight football in almost 25 years, to Premier League safety in the space of 20 months. And he did it while managing the mania and with his future constantly called into question.
Cooper gets it. His relationship with the supporters and young players made this happen, and if he is still Forest’s manager in May 2024 it is because they have had a tremendous season. Marinakis is ambitious, to a point of fault. Cooper must walk through the storm again.
Prediction
The away form remains a concern, as would Cooper leaving. But safe, just. 17th
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