After 1,146 days, Ukraine could be getting Taurus missiles – but is it too late?

Germany is willing to send Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine, the country’s incoming leader has said, as it tries to help Kyiv “get ahead” in the war.

Berlin has long resisted sending Taurus to Ukraine, despite repeated requests, citing fears of escalating conflict with Russia. Today marks the 1,146th day since Russia’s invasion on 24 February 2022.

But if Germany does send finally the missiles, more than three years after Russia invaded, can they turn Kyiv’s fortunes around — or is it too little too late?

Taurus would bolster Ukrainian firepower – but are similar to what it has already

It is not entirely clear how Taurus missiles compare to other missiles already given to Ukraine, but Taurus has “similar dimensions and is in roughly the same category of weapons” as the Storm Shadows, according to analysts at intelligence firm Janes said.

“On paper, the KEPD 350 Taurus cruise missile appears to have greater reach than other Western-supplied weapons in Ukrainian service, while still promising high precision and a powerful warhead able to tackle a range of strategic target types,” they said.

A different engine is said to give Taurus a longer range than the Storm Shadows, of over 500km (310 miles) but the official range of Storm Shadow has fluctuated over the years with manufacturer MBDA stating they can hit targets “in excess of 300km” and the Royal Air Force referencing 550km (341.7 miles) and 250km (155 miles) ranges at different times.

If Taurus missiles can travel further than Ukraine’s current long-range missiles, Ukrainian jet crews would be able to launch their weapons from beyond the reach of Russian air defences and hit a wider range of targets within Russian-held territory, Janes said — provided Germany does not impose any targeting or planning restrictions.

“Although the weapons are broadly comparable, their slightly differing functions and profiles mean that the injection of Taurus into Ukraine’s arsenal would give it additional strategic and tactical options for target selection and how exactly to engage them, while also simultaneously complicating the defensive picture for Russian forces,” Janes analysts said.

Taurus donations ‘helpful but not decisive’

Should the donations go ahead, Dr​​​​ Sidharth Kaushal, senior research fellow at the defence think-tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said that Taurus will be “very helpful” to Ukraine – but will not singlehandedly change the course of the conflict.

Ukraine gets through large quantities of missiles but the stockpiles of British Storm Shadows and US ATACMs are “limited”, so a boost in long-range missile supply will help bolster Ukrainian firepower.

The Taurus warhead is slightly larger than the Storm Shadow’s, and viewed by some as being more effective against large structures, but Dr Kaushal will not necessarily represent a “paradigm shift in terms of effectiveness”.

“The major challenge that the Ukrainians face is steady pressure across a broad front which is slowly eroding their capacity. The ability to strike targets such as command posts or supply lines like the Kerch Bridge [between Russia and occupied Crimea] at depth is helpful, but not decisive in this context.

“The Russians have also taken steps to mitigate the vulnerability of some of their other points of failure; for example not relying on concentrated munitions storage sites,” Dr Kaushal said.

“The ability to strike high-value targets at long ranges is certainly useful but is something Ukraine has already through cruise missiles like Storm Shadow and ballistic missiles like ATACMs. The new addition does not fundamentally change the battlefield dynamics, though it is a welcome development.”

James Nixey, head of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, said that while Taurus might not alter the course of the war, “it all helps”.

“This war isn’t over and Ukraine is still in this fight,” he said. “Ukraine does have a weapons shortage, so it’s absolutely not too little too late. But of course, it would have been better had they been given earlier.”

Germany shows its teeth

Taurus might be more important as a signal of German commitment to Ukraine than a tool on the battlefield, Dr Kaushal said.

The possibility of Taurus donation marks a “significant statement of intent by the incoming [Friedrich] Merz government” and a “break with standing German policy”.

But Kyiv has asked for Taurus missiles before to no avail, so why is Germany changing its mind now?

“Firstly, a new administration may wish to have daylight between itself and a predecessor — which Merz criticised on several occasions for tepid support to Ukraine,” Dr Kaushal said.

“Notably, he supported the transfer of Taurus while in opposition and so this may reflect a desire to make good on statements of support made before he was chancellor in waiting.”

Germany may also be bolstering aid in a bid to fill the gap left by the US, which has been wavering in its support for Ukraine.

“There is a stated desire to avoid the perception that changing US policy means that Ukraine will be abandoned because Europe lacks the capacity to support it,” Dr Kaushal said.

“Merz has publicly expressed the idea that Europe must have the capacity to act in a world where US support cannot be assumed. This could be intended to provide tangible evidence of Germany’s commitment to this outcome.”

Janes analysts suggested Merz had adopted a more “assertive” foreign policy stance and that sending Taurus to Ukraine was part of his wider ambition to “boost Germany’s international standing and leadership role in European defence to the same level as the United Kingdom and France.”

The move would bring it into line with European partners who are already sending cruise missiles.

The UK has long been supplying Storm Shadow missiles, which were fired into Russian territory for the first time in November after Downing Street eased its restrictions on their use.

“Our European partners are already supplying cruise missiles,” said Merz on Sunday night. “The British are doing it, the French are doing it, and the Americans are doing it anyway. This must be jointly agreed. And if it agreed, then Germany should take part.”

Russia hits back at Taurus suggestions

Russia has accused Germany of attempting to escalate the conflict.

“Merz’s statements clearly indicate that he advocates a tougher stance and supports steps that can, and inevitably will, lead to further escalation of the situation around Ukraine,” the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said.

“We are seeing the same approach in other European capitals as well.”

One senior Russian official often prone to aggressive anti-Western rhetoric called Merz a “Nazi”, an insult frequently used against the Ukrainian government in an attempt to justify the unprovoked invasion.

Push to bolster Ukraine as peace talks stall

A change in policy towards Taurus missiles comes as US-brokered peace negotiations fail to reach a conclusion, with Merz saying that “at some point, [Putin] must recognise the hopelessness of this war, which means we have to help Ukraine”.

Berlin may be hoping that any increase in contribution can deal Ukraine a marginally better hand at the negotiating table.

A peace deal seems likely to end the fighting on current battlelines – even though this would mean Ukraine having to cede territory to Russia – so both sides are attempting to make last-minute gains as Trump attempts to force a deal.

The Kremlin has been stalling talks and setting out a series of extreme demands for an agreement, while simultaneously ramping up attacks on Ukrainian civilians.

On Sunday, Russia killed at least 34 civilians and injured 117 in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy.

Merz said this was a “serious war crime” and evidence of “what Putin does to those who talk to him about a ceasefire”.

Russia has little incentive to negotiate as it makes gains on the battlefield and its defence-focused economy continues to survive despite Western sanctions, analysts said.

Janes analysis found that the peace talks were almost certainly decisive in Germany’s changing on Taurus.

“Merz believes that providing Ukraine with all the necessary military equipment, and to strengthen Ukraine as much as possible, is the most effective way of dealing with Russia and enabling Ukraine to enter peace negotiations in a stronger position,” they said.

Nixey said also that this context had likely proven decisive in Merz’s decision to consider sending Taurus missiles, with Russia’s clear unwillingness to engage in a ceasefire making it “easier for Europe to send all it can and for Merz to go stronger”.

“I think Merz was also waiting for the politics at home to get better. Now his chancellorship is all but confirmed, he’s in a stronger position,” he said.

“Merz has wavered on this. During the campaign he said he would send them, then said he was a chancellor of peace, and now has said he would indeed deliver them. It may be that the attacks in Sumy also tipped him over.

“It’s hard to divine the precise ratio of factors which contributed, but I would suggest that combination of Merz feeling stronger, the international context, and [the recent attacks by Russia] led to this decision.”