Boost for Sunak as Reform slips in polls in first week of campaign

Reform UK is facing a squeeze on its support following the start of the general election in an apparent boost for Rishi Sunak.

The Conservatives remain “extremely unlikely” to win the election, pollsters BMG warned following the results of their first weekly survey for i since the campaign kicked off.

But the slight fall in backing for Reform provided a glimmer of hope that the Tory strategy of peeling off voters from their right-wing rival may be starting to succeed.

The poll – carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday this week – showed that 43 per cent of voters currently back Labour and 27 per cent support the Conservatives. Reform come third on 11 per cent, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 9 per cent and the Greens on 6 per cent.

The 16-point gap between Labour and the Tories is unchanged from the last BMG survey in April, although each party has put on two points since then.

Reform has fallen from its previous level of 14 per cent – but still remains well above the support it was recording a year ago.

Oliver White of BMG said: “Traditionally we see the polls narrowing throughout an election campaign, but one week in Labour holds a 16-point lead, the same as in our last poll conducted in late April. This sizeable lead will translate into a landslide victory for Labour if these numbers hold until 4 July.”

He added: “The shift in support for Reform UK is small and within the margin of error, but their vote share is down by a few points. This is something to watch as the campaign develops, especially since the Tory strategy appears to be a defensive one, aiming to win back some of their core voters.”

Mr White said there was “plenty of scope for things to change”, pointing to the major shift in polling over the course of the 2017 campaign when Jeremy Corbyn came close to blocking Theresa May’s Conservatives from re-election, but concluded: “As it stands, the chances of Rishi Sunak preventing Keir Starmer from entering Downing Street after this election remain extremely unlikely.”

The Tories have made a series of eye-catching announcements – including the return of national service for teenagers and a guarantee that income tax will not be levied on the state pension – which appear designed to appeal to older voters and those tempted to back Reform.

Commentators have argued that Mr Sunak is pursuing a so-called “Dunkirk strategy”, which is designed to limit the Conservatives’ losses rather than to pull off an against-the-odds victory.

The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have very slightly improved from their lows of earlier this year but remain deep in negative territory with 21 per cent of voters approving of his performance and 59 per cent dissatisfied, for a net rating of -38. Sir Keir Starmer is on -1 with 32 per cent of voters favourable and 33 per cent disapproving.

And voters are much more likely to see the Tories as disunited than they are Labour – barely one in five think the Conservative is united internally with two thirds saying they are divided, while half say Labour is united and fewer than a third believe they are divided.

BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,500 GB adults online between 28 and 29 May. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.