Boris Johnson’s allies dream of a Trump-style comeback

For Boris Johnson’s allies, there is an alternative history of the past two-and-a-half years of British politics in which he is not toppled from power in July 2022.

In this parallel reality, Johnson puts forward a less market-troubling, but still pro-growth Budget in the autumn of that year and, crucially, successfully defends his Conservative majority in a 2024 election.

Whether this counterfactual timeline would have actually turned out this way, no one will ever know. But it is one which continues to nag away at a group of his political allies who hope that Johnson might at some point return to the Westminster frontline to save the Tory party from potentially another electoral defeat or, more disastrously, being overtaken by Reform as the leading force on the British right.

It is the growing success of Nigel Farage’s party since the general election campaign, which threatens to split the right – together with the astonishing comeback of Donald Trump as US president – that is making Johnson’s allies wistful for their former leader.

But friends of Johnson believe that, unlike the American presidential system, it is too difficult for him to mount a similar comeback, which would involve him being elected as an MP in a by-election, waiting for a Tory leadership contest and winning the support of enough MPs who did not turn against him in 2022. 

And friends also questioned whether he really has the “appetite” to come back.

Several of Johnson’s most loyal Cabinet allies recently spoke publicly and enthusiastically about the prospect of his return before the next election – potentially in a by-election in a (relatively) safe Conservative seat.

Jacob Rees-Mogg told the Sun on Sunday: “I have not spoken to him about this, but he must be looking at Donald Trump and thinking, ‘Look, Donald can do it, he’s 78. I’ve just turned 60 – a lot of life in me yet’.”

His former colleague, Brendan Clarke-Smith, told the Sunday Express: “He’s one of the great comeback kings of politics. Why not?”

And Nadine Dorries told the same newspaper: “There are red lights flashing on the road ahead which tell us that week by week Nigel Farage is growing on the political stage.

“I would say the only reason that is happening is because Boris Johnson has exited that political stage. That is facilitating his growth, both in popularity and as the alternative.” Although Dorries added: “Of course I want to see him [Johnson] there, I make no apology for that. The problem is, does he want it?”

And that is the $1m (£790,000) (after-dinner speaking fee) question. In the first six months after leaving office in September 2022, Johnson made £5m from speeches and other outside earnings, and he remains in demand on the circuit, meaning that figure is likely to be well over £10m by now.

He was paid a £510,000 advance for writing his memoirs, Unleashed, and reportedly earns a six-figure annual sum for writing a weekly column in the Daily Mail.

These earnings enabled Johnson and his wife Carrie to buy a £3.8m mansion in Oxfordshire in March in 2023, where they live with their three young children, Dilyn the dog and a clutch of farmyard animals.

On her Instagram account, Mrs Johnson paints an idyllic picture of countryside life and has recently suggested the couple want to build an outdoor sauna in their garden.

With the former prime minister living in domestic bliss and earning far more than he could as an MP, and the Conservative Party reduced to a rump of 121 MPs after July’s election, why would he want to return to the fray?

In his memoir, Johnson claimed that he had “no idea” whether he would stand again as an MP. But he did – in classic Johnson style – tease readers a little, saying: “I used to claim that my chances of becoming PM were about the same as my being reincarnated as an olive or decapitated by a frisbee. 

“The longer I spend away from Westminster, the stronger my belief that you should only get involved if you really think you can be useful.”

A spokesperson for Johnson declined to comment on whether he was interested in a comeback, while a source close to him said he was “very busy” promoting Unleashed, as well as continuing to write and advocate for causes such as Ukraine.

But another friend said: “My honest view, having seen what happened with Trump and reflected on that, is that if you had a presidential system or a head of government that is elected for a fixed term then it [a comeback] would be a very real possibility.

“A lot of people out there are missing what he provided. [But] I think he is very conscious of the reality: you can only get to be prime minister by being a leader of a party in our system. The party system has proved itself to be brutal across the board in recent years, not just for the Tories.

“It is rough. I don’t think he has got the appetite for some sort of futile, not to mention humiliating, attempted return.

“It is that futility that is the main thing. He is very very realistic.”

For Johnson’s detractors in the Tory party, there were good reasons for his downfall – namely that many of his MPs turned against him over partygate and sleaze.

Then again, 75 Conservative MPs stood down at the election, and 26 of the current batch of 121 are newly elected, suggesting there could have been enough churn to look at Johnson – who after all was an election-winner – in a new light.

Yet these MPs have only just elected a new leader: Kemi Badenoch. And even Johnson’s most ardent political fans believe she should be given a chance to prove herself.

The former prime minister himself told The Spectator in November that Badenoch had shown “impatience and zip” in wanting to make the Tories electable again, and praised her for a strong start.

A friend said Johnson admires Badenoch and added that her election was “a sign of the party being as he genuinely believes meritocratic”.

They added: “The progressive left talk the talk about ethnic minorities and gay rights but then only have white heterosexual privileged men as leaders.

“I think most people would forgive him for thinking there is nobody in politics at the moment, apart from Farage, who touches on the charisma that Boris has.

“If he had not been toppled, if he had just got through the summer [of 2022], he would have got to a growth budget that was not all-your-Christmases-at-once like Liz Truss had, but a serious plan to start growth.

“He would have had a plan to get people through the cost of living.

“There is no vision [with the current Government]. There is no strategy, there is no ambition.

“Boris has a belief that Britain is the best place on the planet. I don’t think that Keir Starmer thinks that.”

Thanks to the weakened Tory party, Farage’s Reform are building on the already breakout success of their general election performance in July, when they scooped 14 per cent of the vote from a virtual standing start.

Latest polls suggest Reform are now on an average of 21 per cent, snapping at the heels of the Tories on 26 per cent and Labour, who have slumped since election day also to 26 per cent.

This rise has coincided with a number of defections from the Conservatives to Reform, begging the question: would Johnson ever jump ship to a party that would no doubt welcome him with open arms?

A friend of Johnson dismissed the idea, saying: “Boris is a Conservative through and through. He is a liberal capitalist. He was in favour of migration from the Commonwealth – although not uncontrolled migration.

“He is not a Reform guy. I would be astonished and disappointed [if he joined Reform].”