Boris Johnson like ‘the last drunk standing’ but election worries growing for Sunak’s Tories

At first light on Thursday, Rishi Sunak was following a team of immigration enforcement officers as they carried out a dawn raid on illegal migrants living in Hounslow, West London.

It was a pointed show of studied indifference towards the action about to begin on the Prime Minister’s home turf later that day as the House of Commons’ own enforcers – otherwise known as the Privileges Committee – got tough and published a damning report on Boris Johnson’s lies over Partygate.

Number 10 were keen to point out on Friday morning that Mr Sunak had still yet to read their excoriating verdict into Mr Johnson’s actions in an attempt to show that the current PM views the Johnson saga as little more than a distraction.

But despite such efforts, the reality is that Downing Street has lost another week dealing with the Conservative Party psychodrama that trails in Mr Johnson’s wake, rather than tackling the major issues of the day, not least rising mortgage rates and stubbornly high inflation.

It began with the PM embroiled in an unseemly war of words with Mr Johnson over his predecessor’s honours list, after the latter saw his promises to ennoble several of his staunchest allies come to nothing.

The row spilled out into the public arena in a way that even the bitter feud between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had never quite managed to.

The ex PM accused Mr Sunak of talking “utter rubbish” about whether it would have been necessary to overrule the House of Lords’s vetting committee on the issue of handing out peerages to four Tory MPs.

His attacks then swiftly turned to Tory grandee and member of the Privileges Committee Sir Bernard Jenkin, who was accused of attending his own lockdown-breaking party.

The source of the story is unknown, but Conservative MPs were quick to point the finger at the Johnson camp, whom they accused of “lobbing hand grenades” in a bid to undermine the committee.

One former minister described Mr Johnson as being like “the last drunk standing, throwing random punches at anyone who comes near him”.

“We’ve all moved on without him,” the MP told i. “We’re now seeing the delusions of someone who once had a future.”

A smattering of Mr Johnson’s acolytes spoke out publicly against the Privileges Committee’s decision to hand him a nominal 90 day suspension, and block him from holding a former member’s parliamentary pass. But many within the ranks of the Conservative parliamentary party were relieved to see the back of their former leader.

“Even the last diehard disciples seem to be abandoning him,” said one Tory MP “[It’s] actually rather sad.”

A former Cabinet minister went further, branding Mr Johnson as a “busted flush”. But the senior Tory warned that his departure was unlikely to relieve the pressure on the Prime Minister.

“I don’t think this necessarily makes the party any easier for Rishi to handle,” the source told i. “That’s mainly because everyone is worried about the election rather than having Boris in the wings.”

The Westminster bubble may have found the Boris Johnson Show absorbing. But for the blue elements of the audience it has been a difficult watch as they will know that the Conservatives’ prospects at the next election have not improved.

Mr Sunak now faces a crunch week when the latest inflation figures are due to be published, followed by another likely increase to interest rates, piling on yet more misery for homeowners already hurting thanks to the prolonged cost of living crisis.

Figures published earlier this week showed a surprise increase in salaries, prompting fears that the Prime Minister’s pledge to halve inflation by the end of the year could prove more challenging than expected.

The uptick in small boat crossings by migrants this week thanks in large part to the weather, is also threatening to severely undermine his vow to “Stop the Boats”.

The former Cabinet minister was not optimistic about the party’s prospects given the current headwinds. “Obviously, it’s never over until it’s over. And who knows what could happen to either main party between now and the general election.

“But the polling seems very consistent – and we aren’t in the lead.”

Mr Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are under growing pressure to address the rise in mortgage repayment costs – but they remain adamant that the only viable way to do so is to bring inflation down by maintaining fiscal discipline and limiting public-sector wage rises.

A Treasury source told i: “Throughout Covid people got used to the idea that the Government can just step in and pay for them when they run into trouble, but this is a totally different type of crisis and that sort of solution just isn’t available.”

A No 10 insider added: “As ever with a Rishi Sunak government – patience is a virtue.”

Whether the electorate will be willing to wait for the Prime Minister’s policies to bear fruit is open to debate, however.

Polling this week showing the Tories to be trailing Labour among mortgage holders shows the scale of the challenge in front of the party, with Labour’s attack line branding the soaring borrowing costs as the “Conservatives’ mortgage hike” beginning to work among key demographics.

Labour insiders were privately delighted by the Conservative Party’s knack of dominating the headlines with its rolling civil war. Keir Starmer’s party this week backtracked on another of its key policies, this time universal free childcare from nine months, with barely an eyebrow being raised.

But Labour has come under fresh scrutiny after Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves last week rowed back on the party’s promise to invest £28bn a year in green industries after the next election. It will now “ramp up” spending from 2027, rather than bring it in immediately from 2024.

Senior party sources insist Labour has a “full policy programme” for every Whitehall department ready to go, but it will not begin to reveal its plans until the first quarter of 2024.

“If we do we risk the policies being nicked by the Tories. We’re not about to do that,” the source said.

Both Labour and the Conservatives will be able to put their respective popularity to the test next month, with the two by-elections caused by Mr Johnson’s and his ally Nigel Adams’s resignation. A third is expected later in the year after Ms Dorries formally informs the authorities of her stepping down.

The Tory leadership has demanded that each of its MPs must visit each of the constituencies three times in an attempt to avoid what would be hugely damaging defeats a little more than a year out from an expected general election date.

Labour is insistent it is going into the by-elections with a plan to try to win all three seats, despite the Tories enjoying sizeable majorities in Mr Adams’s former Selby and Ainsty seat and Ms Dorries’s Mid-Bedfordshire constituency.

But some in the party said that they felt the leadership’s confidence, particularly in the wake of the local election results, was a bit misguided.

A party source said: “The issue with the Leader of the Opposition is that they think they are the team of 1997 but I don’t think they are. I think it has got more of an Ed Miliband feel about it.

Despite the murmurings of misgivings within the Labour ranks, the party looks odds on to pinch Mr Johnson’s former seat. Should Labour take Selby and Ainsty, which currently has a 20,000 majority for the Tories, then alarm bells will be ringing in Downing Street.

Such a result could mean it is Rishi Sunak’s turn to be turfed out of his home come the general election in 2024.