How Budget drama could trigger an early election in Scotland
Leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) John Swinney will be hoping that his first Budget as Scotland’s First Minister will not be his last, as he tries to avoid a chain of events that could trigger an early Holyrood election.
As his Finance Secretary Shona Robison prepares to set out the Scottish Government’s annual tax and spending plans on Wednesday, there are jitters from some in the SNP that their Budget bill may fail to pass.
With the SNP two MSPs short of a working majority at Holyrood, Swinney is relying on either the Scottish Liberal Democrats or the Scottish Greens to get the Budget through.
The First Minister will be desperately trying to avoid a dramatic impasse that could see voters going to the polls in spring 2025 – one year ahead of the scheduled May 2026 election.
Political experts and various party sources told The i Paper they expect the SNP to get its economic plan through after some tough negotiations – but warned that a collapse in talks and an early election was “not impossible”.
The Lib Dems appear the most likely to agree a Budget deal – to be voted on in late January or early February – with key demands expected to be discussed at a meeting with SNP ministers on Tuesday.
Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton has warned that his MSPs will not vote for the Budget if the plan includes “one penny” of spending on Scottish independence.
The SNP appears to have little choice on the key demand. Swinney’s party can no longer count on support from former allies in the Greens.
The SNP’s relationship with the pro-independence left-wing party has been fraught ever since it scrapped a coalition agreement in May – a move which sparked the resignation of Swinney’s predecessor Humza Yousaf.
Dr Nick McKerrell, a senior lecturer in law at Glasgow Caledonian University, described the weeks ahead as a “game of chicken”.
No party is particularly keen on an election in the spring of 2025, he said. But the party leaders will not want to be seen backing away from one either.
“An election early next year is unlikely, because it’s a messy scenario that is probably not in anyone’s interests,” said Dr McKerrell. “But there’s always a first time for everything in politics. It’s not impossible we get an election next year.”
He added: “There are factors that have never been in place before – the length of time the SNP have been in government, the way in which they angered the Greens, and how intense the independence issue has been after the 2014 referendum.”
Even if Swinney cannot get the Budget passed in February, the rules still require two-thirds of MSPs to vote in favour of an unscheduled election.
Parties may be inclined to let voters resolve the issue at that stage, because if a Budget cannot be passed, Scotland’s devolved income tax rates would default back to UK rates.
A key factor in the weeks ahead will be the party’s own campaign finances. Even with an election in 2025, the scheduled May 2026 vote would still take place, meaning two expensive elections in 12 months.
Andy Maciver, former Scottish Tory communications chief, told The i Paper: “It is absolutely possible the Budget fails – people can overreach, or back themselves into a corner.”
“But no one really wants an early election,” he added. Maciver said polling did not look particularly good for SNP, Scottish Labour or Scottish Tories, with only Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party enjoying a rise in support north of the border since the general election.
The co-founder of the consultancy Message Matters said the Budget was an opportunity for the Lib Dems to be seen “as the pragmatic party that gets things done”.
With a strong hand to get concessions from the SNP, Maciver added: “I think they should be ambitious and go for big strategic wins you can talk about for a long time. Some extra money for dentistry is not enough.”
The Scottish Lib Dems are keen for more money to be allocated to NHS dentistry, mental health support and more generous rules around carers’ allowance. The i Paper understands they are also pushing for extra cash for projects in their four MSPs’ constituencies.
A Lib Dem source said: “We’re willing to be the grown-ups in the room.” But they also warned: “We need to see more money on the table for our priorities.”
The Greens haven’t ruled out support for the Budget. But they have more exacting demands, wanting to see free school meals to all P6 and P7 pupils, a £2 cap on bus fares, as well as all climate-related spending maintained.
A Scottish Greens source said: “We don’t want to be seen supporting a bad Budget. The SNP still needs to prove we can trust them to deliver.”
An SNP source said there was “still a possibility the Budget doesn’t go through”, before adding: “But I think we will get a deal, probably with the Liberal Democrats. All the parties are skint, so there’s no appetite for an election now.”
Polling expert Mark Diffley said an early election was a “possibility”. But he believes the parties would be wary about going before voters in the spring of 2025.
“There’s a risk for any party that your voters will see you propping up a pretty unpopular government. For the Lib Dems that is outweighed by the fact they will be able to say we won concessions on things they care about,” said the founder of The Diffley Partnership consultancy.
The Budget comes against a backdrop of dire public finances, somewhat alleviated by a £3.4bn increase in the next financial year from the UK Government, announced at Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ autumn Budget.
Scottish Labour finance spokesman Michael Marra said the SNP was “out of excuses” after Labour “delivered record levels of funding for Scotland”.
The SNP has said it wanted to “mitigate” cuts made by Labour at Westminster. Swinney’s party has already announced that Wednesday’s Budget plan will allow for a devolved winter heating payment next year, which will give a universal payment of at least £100 to all pensioners.
