PM faces ‘perfect storm of sh**tery’ with Budget his last chance, pollsters say
Next month’s Budget will mark the Conservative Party’s last chance to turn around its chances at the general election, with the Prime Minister facing a “perfect storm of shittery” later this week, polling experts have said.
The UK entered a recession on Thursday despite Rishi Sunak’s pledge to grow the economy, placing renewed pressure on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to cut taxes at the spring Budget on 6 March in order to boost the economy.
But with the Conservative Party facing two potential by-election defeats on Thursday in Wellingborough and Kingswood, polling experts said next month’s Budget is probably the last chance to improve the party’s polling ahead of the general election.
Joe Twyman, director of public opinion firm Deltapoll, said “losing both those seats a day after a recession is announced would just be a perfect storm of shittery for the Conservatives”.
“Where the Conservatives have been in trouble is that a series of events have created a narrative they are not the best party to deal with the economy,” he told i.
“The broad story is that we’re in recession again, the country is not improving, your own personal economic circumstances are not going to improve – all that is very damaging, and events like this feed into that personal economic expectation management, which is so important [for voters].”
Mr Twyman said the Chancellor would now have to pull the punches at the Budget and offer voters a reason to vote Conservative.
Labour has maintained a lead over around 20 points for more than a year although a Savanta poll published on Wednesday suggested the lead has been dented by the party’s recent U-turn on its promise to invest £28bn on green projects.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party now stands 12 points ahead of Mr Sunak’s, according to the poll, with 41 per cent of people saying they would vote Labour at the general election – a seven-point drop compared to last month.
Experts have suggested the recent row over antisemitism could narrow the lead further, after two Labour candidates were suspended earlier this week over anti-Israel comments.
But Mr Twyman insisted that voters were unlikely to remember internal rows at the ballot box, and that the economy remained the number one priority for the public.
“What matters to voters in most cases is the economy, the cost of living, sometimes things like the NHS and immigration, but it’s still ‘the economy, stupid’,” he told i.
The Chancellor has hinted that he will unveil tax cuts next in a bid to boost the economy, but insisted he would do so “in a way that was responsible” and unlikely to fuel inflation.
But Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said it could prove too late to change the public’s mind.
“In our polling, 69 per cent think the Government are doing badly on the economy. When you make [the economy] the sort of cornerstone of your narrative and the public don’t perceive you to be doing well on it, then it just shows how bad it is,” he said.
Mr Hopkins suggested a buoyant reception to next month’s Budget could even prompt the Government to call an early general election “so they can ride that momentum into a short campaign”.
However, he also warned that the Prime Minister could face a fresh coup attempt if the Conservatives lose both by-elections on Thursday.
“If they do lose both then I can see the Simon Clarkes and the Liz Trusses and the plotters coming out of the woodwork again, because you know, it kind of starts to imply that Rishi Sunak can’t win things,” he said.
“If the Tories don’t come second and Reform [UK] do well, I can’t help but think that the plotters are going to be out in force again.”
