Tamworth and Mid Beds by-election defeats tell us nothing , No 10 insiders claim

Rishi Sunak plans to double down on his political strategy despite a double by-election blow casting doubt on his election plans.

The loss of previously safe seats Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire for Labour could herald a Tory general election defeat as bad as Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, pollsters have warned.

But Conservative strategists are adamant that Sir Keir Starmer remains unpopular with the public and insist that Mr Sunak’s “change” argument has a chance of breaking through.

If Labour achieved a nationwide swing on the same scale as those seen in Tamworth and Mid Beds, the Tories would be left with fewer than 100 seats at a general election.

But Conservative insiders believe that the result was primarily due to their usual voters declining to turn out at the polls, rather than deciding to back Labour.

A source told i: “What did we learn? Absolutely nothing. Polls show retention at around 60 per cent and minimal switching, which is exactly what happened. There is no great meaning to be taken from it.”

A member of Mr Sunak’s inner circle added: “There is no love for Labour, there is no swell of support for Keir Starmer to become Prime Minister – this is not 97, he is not Tony Blair.

“The contrast between the two leaders is clear. I can’t remember the last time Starmer took a stand on anything. Rishi is getting things done while Starmer just kind of nods along.”

The insider promised to continue the existing No 10 strategy of bearing down on pressing issues such as inflation and NHS waiting lists, while setting out a serious of longer-term decisions, despite Labour’s poll lead remaining largely stable in recent months.

They said: “We have made these five promises, we are working hard on them, we have made some big changes for the long-term good of the country – no one could say the PM’s conference speech didn’t have substance – and we are getting on with it. A lot can change in a year, we are just going to keep working hard for the country.”

Greg Hands, the Tory party chairman, insisted that “people were happy with the job that Rishi Sunak is doing as Prime Minister” but added: “Clearly there’s been a lot of, if you like, background circumstances in those two by-elections that have also made the job difficult for us.”

He told Sky News: “I’m going to be looking at the dynamics and the operation of those by-elections but I think we had a very good campaign, we had good candidates, we just need to find a way of incentivising Conservatives to turn up to vote next year at the general election