The charts that show Labour would be in trouble in a snap election

It is no secret that, less than a year into Government, Labour has struggled to maintain its dominance in the polls.

Forecasts this far out from the next general election should be treated with caution, but if Reform UK were to realise recent polling at the ballot box, it would mean Labour losing its parliamentary majority.

Recent opinion polls have given Nigel Farage’s party a strong lead, ranging from four to seven points since early May, which it translated into success at the recent local elections by taking control of 10 councils.

Reform also narrowly won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, overseeing a significant 17.4 per cent swing from Labour in what was one of the party’s safest seats.

And it picked up two mayoralties in the Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire combined authorities.

Although the next general election will be held no later than Wednesday, 15 August 2029, these results could serve as an early warning for Labour.

There was even recent polling, published by The i Paper, suggesting that the previously unlikely scenario of Farage entering Number 10 would become a reality if an election were held today.

Here, The i Paper takes a look at five key charts that highlight some of the biggest issues facing the Labour Party today.

Labour does not tempt Reform voters

When Starmer announced a major shake-up of the immigration system just weeks after the local elections, many speculated that this was an attempt to win back supporters from Reform.

And it wasn’t just figures in Westminster who thought that. Recent polling by YouGov, conducted before the immigration announcement, suggests that most Britons believe that Reform voters are the group Labour is trying to appeal to.

But chasing Farage’s coattails may not be a winning strategy for Starmer. The same polling also found that just 8 per cent of Reform voters were open to switching to Labour at the general election, and that figure has now dropped to just 4 per cent.

In fact, 56 per cent of 2024 Reform voters said they believed Labour was trying to court them, more than supporters of any other party and significantly higher than the 48 per cent of Labour voters who felt the party was trying to keep them on side.

These figures underline one of the key challenges facing Labour as it looks towards future elections – how to tackle the rising threat of Reform. While it may seem politically wise to try and bring Reform voters on side, this set of polling suggests that it may not bring the results Labour hopes.

The Conservatives are struggling to counter Reform

The Conservative Party is currently grappling with how to recover from its worst defeat in modern history.

Last year, the party went from 372 seats to just 121, with combined threats of Labour and Reform contributing to their demise in many constituencies.

The election of Kemi Badenoch as the party’s new leader in November 2024 was meant to be a reset moment and a chance to revitalise the party’s fortunes.

However, an overview of polling since September last year suggests that Badenoch is struggling to turn around the Tory Party’s fortunes.

Shortly after she took over, polling from More in Common suggested the party would get 29 per cent of the vote, but that has since fallen to 21 per cent as of 19 May.

Over the same period, Reform has gone from 19 per cent of the vote to 30 per cent, significantly ahead of Labour on 22 per cent.

These figures have significant implications for Labour. The longer the Conservatives struggle to tackle the threat of Reform and win back right-leaning voters, the greater the party’s threat to Starmer come future elections.

In other words, the Conservatives’ stagnation increases the likelihood that Reform will become a major player in the Commons in the future.

Rachel Reeves is unpopular with the public

Rachel Reeves made history last July by becoming the UK’s first female Chancellor, but her first year in office has been marred by difficult decisions and reports of Cabinet rifts.

The Treasury has experienced significant backlash for cutting the winter fuel payment, hiking national insurance contributions for businesses and reforming inheritance tax for farmers.

Securing economic growth is one of the key goals being pursued by Starmer’s Government. However, having that job in the hands of an unpopular figure could spell electoral trouble for Labour in the future.

Recent Ipsos polling found that the Chancellor’s popularity ratings were lower than those of every leader of a national party.

Just 15 per cent of those polls had a favourable view of her, compared to 55 per cent with an unfavourable view, giving her a net popularity rating of -40.

In comparison, Starmer’s net popularity rating is -29, while Badenoch’s is -25 and Farage’s is -18.

Labour says the economic situation it inherited from the Conservatives has forced the Chancellor to make the decisions that are driving her unpopularity with voters.

Her controversial fiscal policies, such as removing the winter fuel allowance for most pensioners, are designed to put the economy back on course to growth after the Tories left them with a £22bn financial black hole, the party argues.

Chancellors are often disliked by the public due to the sometimes tough financial decisions they make, with George Osborne’s infamous austerity policy being almost universally loathed.

But Reeves’s unpopularity does create a specific conundrum for Sir Keir Starmer, who has pinned so much of his Government’s programme on economic success by putting it at the heart of his agenda.

U-turns might not be as unpopular as Labour fears

The Government’s decision, taken shortly after the election, to cut winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners has received significant backlash.

This week, the Prime Minister suggested that the Government was rethinking the policy, but only after much political capital and public goodwill had been expended over the ten months that ministers spent defending the decision.

U-turns are often painted as damaging for governments, but recent polling by More in Common suggests that might not be the case.

The survey, conducted before the winter fuel payment U-turn, found that 59 per cent of Britons indicated they would think better of the Government if they reconsidered the policy.

This figure rose to 67 per cent among those who had switched to Labour at the last election.

Polling like this presents a challenge for the Government. While going back on a policy may not be as harmful as many fear, it is still a major gamble for any political party to change course.

It also means ministers must carefully consider their priorities. Are they more focused on winning over voters or making decisions that they believe will help the country in the long run?

Polls like this may only provide a snapshot of how voters respond to policy changes, but they are food for thought for a Government facing many tough decisions over how to handle the public finances.

Reform could be on track to winning power

With years to go until the next general election and many factors impacting who gets elected, it is nearly impossible to predict how many MPs a party might win in the future.

This said, current polling does give a strong indication of the problems Labour will face over the coming years as they seek to secure a second term.

Reform is undeniably the biggest threat, with a recent analysis from media and communications firm PLMR in partnership with Electoral Calculus predicting that, if an election were held today, Farage’s party would take the biggest share of seats.

Current polling also suggests there could be some volatility at future elections as Labour, Reform, and the Conservatives jostle for first place.

According to the PLMR analysis, Reform could win 227 seats to Labour’s 180 and the Conservatives’ 133. Under this scenario, no party would achieve the 326 majority needed for a majority, leading to a hung parliament.

Reform and the Conservatives could achieve a majority with a coalition, but with the former party splitting the vote, there is no option for Labour to stay in power.

This polling also highlights an added challenge for Labour — the future of its Cabinet.

Under this modelling, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall are among those who could lose their seats to Reform.