Could Israel reoccupy Gaza? Whether Palestinians can flee to Egypt, and the fate of hostages explained
Israel’s retaliation against Hamas for its ruthless attack over the weekend has been fierce, with with airstrikes hammering sites across Gaza and Israeli troops mobilising for an expected ground offensive.
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza have killed at least 950 people with an additional 5,000 individuals wounded, the local health ministry said on Wednesday.
For many of the 2.3 million Palestinians who live on the strip of land, the mobilisation and intense bombardment feels all too familiar, only this time the ground invasion could eclipse Israel’s incursions in 2008 and 2014.
It follows Hamas’s unprecedented cross-border attack in which it killed more than 1,200 Israelis and took scores of hostages, a move that potentially complicates any Israeli response.
After Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, vowed “mighty revenge” to root out Hamas, an Israeli ground invasion in Gaza is all but inevitable.
While the scale and depth of the operation is unclear, what remains certain is the toll it will have on the civilian population.
“The militant groups, by virtue of the spatial organisation of Gaza, are embedded within the civilian population,” said Simon Mabon, professor of international relations at Lancaster University.
“This is going to all-encompassing because it’s people’s homes. Densely populated fighting is always difficult, it is bloody and intense and casualties will be devastating.”
Could Israel reoccupy Gaza?
Israel occupied the Gaza Strip until 2005. Hamas took control of the enclave in 2006 after electoral success in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections, and then victory in a brief violent conflict with rival Palestinian faction Fatah.
Since then, the passage of people and goods in and out of Gaza has been strictly controlled under a blockade enforced by Israel and neighbouring Egypt.
Professor Moban said it was possible that Israel may attempt to reoccupy the Gaza Strip, but this would be made trickier by the serious practical and legal implications.
“There would be an attempt to really eviscerate Hamas and other militant Islamist factions such as Islamic Jihad. That’s an incredibly complicated strategic task,” he told i.
“It would also lead to a change in the political dynamics. Israel will have to create some other mechanism of political organisation, and what that would look like is anyone’s guess right now.”
There are multiple groups vying to lead the Palestinians. The Fatah political party is the driving force behind the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA), the latter of which governs the West Bank in a tense partnership with occupying Israel.
“Fatah hasn’t got much influence in Gaza, the PA is moribund and [PA President Mahmoud] Abbas wields no influence in Gaza, very little influence in the West Bank as well, so there’s a lot of uncertainty,” Professor Mabon added.
For Gazans, an Israeli occupation would not see a huge change for a population already living under a blockade, but there may be an increased Israeli presence in everyday life.
“There would be efforts to regulate all parts of the minutiae of life,” said Professor Mabon. “Israeli agents would be present, visible, omnipotent across Gaza. Breaking up the rhythms of daily life in Gaza, even more than a blockade already does.”
Could Palestinians flee to Egypt?
On Tuesday, the Israeli military revised a recommendation by one of its spokespeople that Palestinians fleeing its airstrikes in Gaza should head to Egypt.
This has caused alarm in Egypt, which has urged Israel to provide safe passage for civilians from Gaza rather than encouraging them to flee south through the Rafah crossing into its Sinai Peninsula. The Rafah border crossing remained shut on Wednesday morning.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Tuesday that the escalation in Gaza was “highly dangerous” and that Egypt was pursuing a negotiated solution to the violence with regional and international partners.
Professor Mabon said: “Al-Sisi has been fighting a battle of his own with the Muslim Brotherhood, another mode of Islamist organisations, so he would be loathe to welcome in Hamas which is a sort of indirect offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.
“The Egyptian state doesn’t have the economic capacity to provide financial support for, let’s say, a million Gazans who flee.
“I also don’t think the Israelis would want to open up the crossing and risk Hamas fighters fleeing into Egypt, that would defeat the point of their military operation.”
What about hostage negotiations?
Hamas abducted about 150 people during its weekend invasion of southern Israel, some of them soldiers but many believed to be civilians.
It presents a huge challenge for a nation whose principle is to leave no one behind.
In the past, hostages have typically been members of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). In 2011, Israel agreed to exchange hundreds of Palestinian prisoners for one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been held captive for five years.
Professor Mabon believes civilian hostages bring a different dynamic to negotiation proceedings. “We know Qatar has been trying to push for this, it wields a lot of influence with Hamas – one of the leading figures of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, is living in Doha.
“Doha is trying to create the conditions that would allow for an exchange of hostages, whether Israel is willing to do that right now will be a calculation that plays out in the context of its broader strategic goal.
“Is it better to do the exchange now, or go in first and then, when in a position of strength, make the exchange? Or will that risk the lives of hostages? If they’re civilians, does that matter more than if they’re military figures?”
