Flu cases soar as infection rate three times higher than same point last year

Flu season looks to have started in earnest after new Government figures indicated cases had jumped by two-thirds in just a week.

The proportion of people in England with flu symptoms testing positive for the virus in the national laboratory reporting system rose by 66.6 per cent in the week to Sunday 24 November.

This took the positivity rate from a daily average of 3.9 per cent the week before to 6.5 per cent the following week, according to figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

Meanwhile, hospital admissions of people with flu jumped by 50 per cent to 1.81 per 100,000 of the population – a level that is still quite low but expected to shoot up in the coming weeks based on typical annual flu patterns.

“Flu is the cause of the rise in winter illnesses that we’ve seen in the past week, with emergency department attendances also increasing,” said Dr Alexander Allen, consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA.

“If you are showing symptoms of flu or Covid-19 such as a high temperature, cough, and feeling tired and achy, try to limit your contact with others, especially those who are vulnerable. Washing your hands regularly and using tissues can reduce the spread of respiratory illnesses,” she added.

Although these positivity rate figures don’t give a precise indication of the prevalence of infections in the general population, they do give a reasonable sense of the degree to which cases are rising or falling – while the situation in England is a good indicator of the UK as a whole, scientists said.

And while flu cases are well below the peak for last winter, they are more than three times as high as they were at this point last year – when the positivity rate was about 2 per cent.

However, they are lower than they were at this point in 2022, when the positivity rate was about 10 per cent and that winter as a whole was the worst for five years.

In that winter, of 2022-23, 14,500 deaths were attributed to flu – compared to an average of 13,500 for the five years before the pandemic.

The Covid positivity rate, meanwhile, fell by 10 per cent in the week to Sunday 24 November, to 3.5 per cent, again among people being tested in laboratories – with the prevalence in the general population likely to be considerably less.

The current flu positivity rate is nearly a month ahead of last year, where it took until mid December to hit 6.5 per cent.

But whether this indicates flu cases could be much higher this year, or that the flu season may be longer, or that it might be about average but a few weeks earlier is still unclear.

However, with the flu positivity rate standing at 7.4 per cent on Sunday 24 November, according to the latest daily figure, scientists were leaning towards the notion that we could be in for a difficult flu season.

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“It looks like flu is kicking off. If this rate of growth over the past week continues then we could indeed see high levels over winter. But nothing is certain when predicting the trajectory of winter influenza,” Professor Paul Hunter, of University of East Anglia, told i.

Simon Williams, a behavioural scientist and public health expert at Swansea University, added: “We are entering flu season, and this seems to be reflected in the statistics.”

“It’s important to remember that flu can be a serious illness, for those in older age groups and the very young, as well as anyone who has a compromised immune system. Flu spreads easily this time of year because of the additional indoor mixing over the holiday season and during colder months”.

“It is important that those eligible, and also those who want to reduce their risk of catching or spreading flu, get a flu vaccine. Rates of flu vaccine in many groups is lower than it could be. This includes healthcare workers who can benefit themselves and others by getting vaccinated.”

Dr Allen said: “Anyone still eligible for the flu, Covid-19 or RSV vaccines should get booked in ahead of the busy winter period, when we expect flu, and other respiratory viruses to spread between people more easily. Vaccination offers the best defence against these diseases, and now is the time to get protected before Christmas.”