How a stealth bomber ‘bunker buster’ strike on Iran’s nuclear sites would look

Donald Trump is weighing up whether to join Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with air and naval assets deploying to the Middle East.

If the US President does give a green light, one target near-certain to be in the crosshairs is the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, dug into the mountains of central Iran, which is thought to be at the heart of the regime’s nuclear programme.

Other possible targets include the Natanz enrichment site and a nuclear research centre in Isfahan.

While Israel has succeeded in taking out Iranian military leaders and missile stocks, and damaging above-ground nuclear installations at Natanz and Isfahan, the Israel Defence Forces lack munitions powerful enough to penetrate sites such as Fordo, which has a network of tunnels up to 90 metres (295ft) underground.

“Israel has dominated Iran militarily,” says Michael Mulroy, a former US Defence Department official who served under Trump during his first term. “But only the US has the munitions to reach the subterranean parts of these facilities.”

An attack on Fordo would require the largest conventional bomb in the US arsenal, said Mulroy, the 14-tonne GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) “bunker buster”, which has never been used in combat.

The system can only be carried by one warplane, the B-2 Spirit, a long-distance stealth bomber that is also capable of delivering nuclear payloads. The B-2 can carry two MOPs at one time.

Mulroy says the bombers would deploy from Diego Garcia, a British-administered territory in the Indian Ocean, about 3,000 miles from Fordo. This would require consent from the British Government.

The MOP is said to be capable of reaching targets up to an estimated 60 metres (200ft) underground, depending on the strength of the rock and earth it must travel through. To be confident of doing significant damage at Fordo, Mulroy believes the US Air Force would have to drop at least six.

The US could also launch a surprise attack from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, where the B-2s are stationed. They took off from Whiteman to strike targets in Yemen earlier this year, said Thomas Newdick, a military aviation specialist at The War Zone news outlet.

However, it has never been proven that MOPs can be used to take out targets as deep as Fordo, he noted.

“There is a network of tunnels. And you don’t know what is going to be where, or what has been moved, or where it’s been moved to,” he said. “So it’s a really big challenge — not a silver bullet.”

Assessing the extent of the damage is likely to pose another challenge, said Newdick.

“Satellite imagery and human intelligence are only going to give you so much information. Unless you actually have boots on the ground to go in and look what’s happened, you are never really going to know.”

While some Israeli commentators have suggested the mission could be completed quickly and easily with a swift B-2 raid, Newdick suggests further military assets could be required.

“They would want to ensure that Iranian air defences were suppressed,” he said, noting the shooting down of an Israeli drone on Wednesday. “They would also want the ability to launch combat search and rescue as well.”

“The worst-case scenario would be if a US aircraft was shot down and then the crew were paraded on Iranian state TV.”

Mulroy believes much of the military buildup in the region, including the deployment of a second aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz, could be deployed depending on the Iranian response to a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.

“I think they are getting ready for a retaliation by Iran to the strike,” he said. “I think the US could get behind a leadership decapitation strike if Iran responds and kills or injures US personnel.”