Can the Tories turn things around? 

Welcome to Monday’s Early Edition from i.

It didn’t take long for the weekend’s local and mayoral election defeats to turn into righteous anger in the Conservative Party. After losing their West Midlands mayor, and 474 council seats (and winning less than the Lib Dems), senior Tories were quick to air their grievances about the party’s direction. “A lot of us at the moment feel like we’re the one-legged man in the arse kicking competition,” a senior Tory MP told i yesterday. Former home secretary Suella Braverman let her fury rip in the papers and on the airwaves over the weekend. She told the BBC the party would be “lucky to have any Conservative MPs at the next election, and we need to fight,” and called for a more right-wing policy platform. She also wrote, somewhat mysteriously: “The hole to dig us out is the PM’s, and it’s time for him to start shovelling.” Even the PM has admitted his party is unlikely to win the next election. So what are the Conservatives likely to do, and can it turn its fortunes around before the next election? We’ll take a look after the headlines.

 Today’s news, and why it matters

 Scotland Yard has banned officers from accessing a controversial facial recognition search engine after it was accessed thousands of times from Metropolitan Police computers. The PimEyes site has given rise to concern from privacy campaigners that it could be used by stalkers or to carry out surveillance.

A combination of Brexit and the wettest UK weather for nearly 200 years will lead to a significant drop in food production by British farmers this year and risks fuelling a fresh rise in inflation, the industry has warned. A record two thirds of farmers are either forecasting a decline in their profits or bankruptcy in the next 12 months due to an unprecedented “perfect storm”.

‘I promised mum on her deathbed I would get justice for her’. Ronan Fitzgerald’s mother, Jane, was one of the more than 30,000 people in the UK given blood products infected with HIV and hepatitis C, reports Paul Gallagher.

John Swinney is the only official candidate to become the next leader of the SNP after party activist Graeme McCormick ended his bid. Mr McCormick, who had made a last-minute bid, said he would “not proceed” with his nomination and instead backed Mr Swinney.

A woman has been arrested on suspicion of neglect after a five-month-old boy suffered a cardiac arrest at Legoland Windsor Resort. The baby is in critical condition in hospital after the incident at around 1pm on Thursday.

Titanic and Lord of the Rings star Bernard Hill has died aged 79. The actor portrayed Captain Edward Smith in the 1997 Oscar-winning film about the sinking of the famous ship, and King Théoden in the Lord of the Rings trilogy directed by Sir Peter Jackson which picked up numerous Academy Awards.

What the Tories might do ahead of the general election:

A rethink on strategy: The heavy losses at the weekend have raised serious doubts over the party’s 80:20 strategy for the general election. That strategy will see the party focus on its 80 marginal seats alongside the top 20 it believes it can take from Labour. To keep their majority, the Tories would need to keep at least half of those key 80 – something polls suggest is very unlikely. (You can read more about that strategy, here). MPs also have fears over the party’s messaging and lack of vision from the top. One senior Tory MP told i that backbenchers are in despair over the approach from No 10 and CCHQ’s campaign director Isaac Levido. “A lot of us at the moment feel like we’re the one-legged man in the arse kicking competition,” the MP said. “My issue is what vision are we showing? [And] our comms are f**king shite. And I’ve told this to Isaac Levido.” However there are divides within the party on what direction to take. While the likes of Suella Braverman favour a lurch to the right, others are strongly warning against it. One senior Tory MP said: “History tells us that elections are always won from the centre. Shifting further right would be a terrible mistake, appealing only to our core vote.” Read the full story, here.  

Take a lesson in the power of tactical voting: While the apparent success of Reform in some seats attracted attention – especially in the Blackpool South by-election, the bigger picture when it came to voting intentions was much more complex. Luke Tryl, of More in Common, told i voters appeared to realise “more so than previously” which local candidates were best placed to beat the Tories and backed them. While in some southern seats, Labour began challenging the Liberal Democrats in becoming the main opposition to the Tories, “what seems to be happening in a lot of places is that even without the idea of a progressive alliance, which is a non-starter for lots of reasons, voters seem to be doing that organically in lots of places”, Mr Tryl said. “They seem to know, more so than previously, who is the best option to defeat the Conservatives and they are voting for them.” Read the full story here. Polling guru Sir John Curtice also noted that “voters in wards that the Conservatives were trying to defend often appeared willing to vote for whoever was best placed to defeat the incumbent Tory”. But he also had a warning for Labour. “Overall, there is nothing in these results to disturb the impression long created by the polls that Labour is currently on course for victory in the forthcoming general election. But the party is primarily riding a wave of Conservative unpopularity rather than a surge of enthusiasm for the prospect of a Labour government.” Read his piece, here. 

Five things Sunak could do to turn his fortunes around: It seems unlikely that a leadership challenge will be mounted ahead of a general election, so any possible path to victory at the next election looks like Sunak’s responsibility. The PM is undoubtedly hoping for some popularity-boosting data this Friday, when figures are expected to show that the UK is over its recession. There are five possible ways he might be able to turn things around, as Arj Singh explains here.

Around the world

 Israeli defence minister has threatened that the country will order military action in Rafah – where millions of Gazans are sheltering – in the ‘very near future’ if truce talks collapse. Yoav Gallant warned his government was preparing to launch “a powerful operation in the very near future in Rafah and other places across all of Gaza”.

The bodies of three tourists found in a well in Mexico’s north-west all had bullet wounds to the heads, authorities say. Australian brothers Jake and Callum Robinson and their American friend Jack Carter Rhoad disappeared on 27 April while on a surfing trip in Ensenada.

People think expats in Spain are super-rich – that’s not our reality. The cliché of wealthy British expats who refuse to integrate into local life is overly simplistic, a study has found.

Malta’s shift from strict laws to legalising cannabis – and what it shows the UK. The fiercely Catholic island nation has reversed its no-tolerance policy in what campaigners say could be an example for Britain, writes Niko Vorobyov.

 Watch out for…

 the marking of the first anniversary of the King’s coronation. Gun salutes will be heard across London today. 

 Thoughts for the day

 A Tory recovery is not beyond the bounds of possibility. The Conservatives must listen to the people, writes Vernon Bogdanor.

I used to scorn those who grieved people they had never met – now I understand. Late in the day, but better then than never, I suppose I realised that we do know these people, says Lucy Mangan.

Why ‘Beyoncé’ is the perfect word to add to the French dictionary. This is immortalisation of the linguistic kind, explains Susie Dent.

Culture Break

 Love Lies Bleeding review: Kristen Stewart’s lesbian crime thriller is a masterpiece. Director Rose Grass’s gory sensibility is put to good use in this steroid-popping, hyper-violent love story.

The Big Read

 UK defence chiefs want an ‘Iron Dome’ shield – but could it stop Russian attack? MPs and military leaders are calling for a system to shoot down Russian missiles, but some worry it is an expensive folly, reports Rob Hastings.

Sport

 Blue mist and ‘monk-like discipline’: The day Ipswich’s dreams came true. Ipswich celebrate as their 22-year Premier League exile ends – and do not bet against Kieran McKenna’s men taking the top flight by storm, writes George Simms.

Something to brighten your day

 I’m a 38-year-old Morris dancer – you’ve got us all wrong. You have to have a thick skin to be a Morris dancer – but it’s not all bells and hankies. James Merryclough tells Emily Bootle how he found his love for it.