Four key questions after the Budget 

Welcome to Thursday’s Early Edition from i.

It was seen as Jeremy Hunt’s last fiscal statement before the next election, and the pressure was on to provide a strong appeal to voters. A 2p cut to National Insurance, an increase to child benefit thresholds, and a cut to capital gains tax, a freeze on fuel and alcohol duty were all part of the Chancellor’s message that Britain’s economy was “turning the corner”. But will it work? A snap poll of voters directly after Wednesday’s Budget was delivered said most people don’t expect Mr Hunt’s policies to make any difference to their bank balances. Overall support for the Government’s headline measures was at 40 per cent, some 16 points lower than the Autumn Statement. While speculation over what the Budget would contain has now ended, Rishi Sunak’s government – and a potential incoming Labour one – face other questions. What might it mean for public spending cuts, defence forces, Labour and the next election? We’ll take a look after the headlines.

 Today’s news, and why it matters

 Rishi Sunak’s pledge to make the UK a science and technology superpower by 2030 is in danger as it is being outspent by other major countries while strict visa rules are turning away top talent, scientists have warned. The Government said it invested £19.4bn in R&D last year – a record amount that is slightly ahead of the £18.5bn it invested in 2021 – the last year for which official figures are available.

Private schools have revealed that they are drawing up cost-cutting plans including reducing scholarships, and teachers’ pensions, so that they can cope with Labour’s plan to charge VAT on their fees. Independent sector partnerships with state schools could also be at risk, according to i’s conversations with private heads.

Police forces around the country will struggle to implement new measures to tackle corruption and sexual violence against women and girls amid budget shortfalls, the chair of the Police Federation has told i. The growing numbers of officers leaving forces combined with recruitment challenges could also impact the police’s ability to respond to 999 calls, police bosses have warned.

The taxpayer paid £15,000 in compensation on behalf of Michelle Donelan after the Science Secretary was embroiled in a libel case. Ms Donelan was forced to retract her statements and pay damages after she falsely accused two academics of sharing “extremist” views.

Raw sewage has been flowing from manholes into a rare chalk stream in Berkshire for more than two months as Thames Water’s infrastructure has struggled to cope with continuing wet weather. The village of Lambourn, that sits within the North Wessex Downs Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, has been littered with toilet paper, tampons and “lumps of faeces”.

4 key questions on the Budget:

What does it mean for public services? The lead up to the Budget was full of warnings from think tanks about the impact any tax cuts might have on public services, with the IFS saying NHS funding could face the biggest cuts in real terms since the 1970s. While Jeremy Hunt pledged to keep growth in spending on hospitals, schools and other services at 1 per cent above inflation per year, the amount of money spent per person on frontline services is expected to reduce. The OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook report said real departmental spending by 2026-27 will be £7,580 per person. This figure is £630, or 8 per cent, lower than anticipated when spending plans were first set out in October 2021. Read the full story here. Another snap poll also showed voters believed the Chancellor should have done more to boost public services. A male teacher from Liverpool, who voted Labour in 2019, told a focus group yesterday: “The reduction in national insurance is welcome, but I realise, as do most others, that this comes with a cost in terms of public services.” Another, an insurance advisor from Brighton added: “It goes someway with the NI cut but feel they should spend more on the NHS as it’s struggling at the moment.” Read the full results here.

What about defence? Fears that the British Army has been “hollowed out” after decades of falling recruitment and funding have grown alongside the threat posed by Russia. Now experts are warning that the UK Government will have to make some “unpleasant” decisions about defence spending in the next few years after Jeremy Hunt announced no new funding for the Armed Forces.The small print of the Budget reveals that capital spending – which covers things like military equipment – is set to fall from £20.3bn last year to £18.9bn in 2024-25, while day-to-day spending is also set to fall. While overall defence spending remains flat, the cost of protecting the UK’s nuclear deterrent is protected, meaning other military budgets face a squeeze. Professor Malcolm Chalmers, the deputy director general of the defence think-tank RUSI, told i the UK was the only major European country to not increase its defence budget in real terms, and is one of the few European countries which is also not increasing its military assistance to Ukraine significantly in real terms. Read the full story here.

Has Labour been set a political trap? That has largely been the accepted wisdom. i previously reported that Shadow ministers fear if Labour wins the election, they will have to announce cuts to certain areas of spending within weeks of taking office. LSE’s Dr Tony Hockley wrote: “Playing the usual political games, the Chancellor has effectively locked a future government into disastrous spending plans alongside a flat-lined economy. The Budget has, knowingly, made a bad situation worse. A new government would need to play a very long game to turn this situation around.” But shadow ministers insisted to i they were not worried about the Chancellor’s tax trap. One said the non-dom gambit was “not a problem” because “we anticipated the move”, while another frontbencher added: “The public are the most taxed since the war, debt is still rising and fiscal drag is huge.” However Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are under pressure to explain how they will fund key spending pledges after backing the Government’s tax cuts. Some in the party are calling for the party to adopt a more radical economic policy to create clearer dividing lines with the Tories. One told i: “Labour is going to have to find some policies that strike out a different pathway forward for the country on the economy, or they will end up being the midwives of austerity 2.0 which will be a disaster for the country.” Read the full story here.

What does it tell us about the election? The idea of a May election has been gathering pace in recent weeks. Earlier this week, Wes Streeting, the shadow Health Secretary, predicted that the Conservatives would use the Budget as a springboard for a Spring general election. He told LBC: “It should be May and I think people are fed up with the idea that Rishi Sunak for his own personal survival and wanting to clock up two years as Prime Minister will squat in Downing Street into the autumn, when people are crying out for change.” But those expectations have now changed, Katy Balls writes. “It did not feel like an immediate pre-election giveaway,” she quoted one MP as saying. She writes: “In a week when one poll found the Tories were on just 20 points, there is little appetite in No 10 to face voters any time soon.” Read her full piece here.

Around the world

 Ukraine’s potent marine drones spark global arms race. World powers aim to capitalise on Ukraine’s marine innovations, which could transform naval warfare, reports Kieron Monks.

A missile attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on a cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden killed three crew members and forced survivors to abandon the vessel, US Central Command (Centcom) said. It is the first fatal attack since the group started attacking shipping over Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

A movie weapons supervisor who loaded a gun for actor Alec Baldwin has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter for the death of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins during a rehearsal on the set of Rust. Hannah Gutierrez-Reed was found not guilty on a second charge of evidence tampering.

Doctors have warned of potentially life-threatening effects from plastic pollution after finding a substantially raised risk of stroke, heart attack and earlier death in people whose blood vessels were contaminated with microscopic plastics.

The world’s oceans have reached their highest temperature on record, according to satellite data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service. The revelation has raised fears that coral reefs are on the brink of a massive and potentially lethal heat shock.

An American biotech company has announced a breakthrough that could lead to the woolly mammoth being recreated. The project is being led by George Church, a Harvard genetics professor whose goal is to reintroduce mammoths — or, more accurately, genetically edited Asian elephants that very closely resemble them — to the wild.

 Watch out for…

 Lord David Cameron, who is visiting his German counterpart in Berlin for talks expected to include the recent military leak.  

 Thoughts for the day

 Labour failed me when I needed my party the most. During Covid I needed the Labour Party to stand with me against the Government, reveals Andy Burnham.

I used to love watching the Tories implode – now it’s boring. Hunt’s performance in the Budget was pitiful, says Ian Dunt.

Gary Goldsmith is doing more damage to Royal Family than Meghan Markle ever did. Who’s to say his presence on Celebrity Big Brother isn’t serving as an additional stick in the spokes, asks Kuba Shande-Baptist.

Culture Break

 What will Hollywood’s elite get in their $125,000 Oscars goodie bag? This year Oscars nominees will get a free Swiss chalet break, a 15-day walking tour of Japan, a special edition Rubik’s Cube and more, reveals Tom Nicholson.

The Big Read

 Why Taylor Swift could be Donald Trump’s true nemesis at the election. Taylor Swift has called on her 283 million followers to vote – and she could have the power to influence the election result.

Sport

 Rory Best: ‘Ireland are miles ahead but England have one powerful weapon’. The former Ireland captain believes there is a ‘huge gap’ between the two nations ahead of their Six Nations meeting at Twickenham, writes Hugh Godwin.

Something to brighten your day

 I tried ‘slow productivity’ – I’m happier, less frazzled and achieving more. As a freelancer, I need to be productive – if I’m wasting time, I’m not getting paid. But I’m also guilty of over-burdening my list, writes Isabelle Aron.