How serious is the audio leak about military operations in Ukraine? 

Welcome to Tuesday’s Early Edition from i.

It should have been a secret call between German military officials. Instead, a 38-minute recording of a conversation which focused on operations in Ukraine was intercepted by Russia and then placed into the hands of an arch propagandist for the Kremlin, who posted it online last Friday. That conversation appeared to include discussions on the potential supply of long-range German-made Taurus missiles, something Kyiv has been keen to get hold of, and whether the weapons could blow up the strategically important Kerch Bridge. The men are also heard talking about details of alleged British “people on the ground”. Germany’s defence ministry confirmed that a conversation of air force officials was “intercepted”, but could not confirm whether the audio had been tampered with. Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, described the leak as “very serious”. “This is a bald attempt and a transparent attempt by the Russians to try to sow discord and to try to show division, to try to make it look like the West isn’t unified,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at the start of this week. How serious is it? We’ll take a look after the headlines.

 Today’s news, and why it matters

 Rishi Sunak has suffered his heaviest defeat in Parliament as the House of Lords voted to water down the law which is meant to allow migrants to be deported to Rwanda. Peers backed five separate amendments to the Safety of Rwanda Bill which would remove the ability of the legislation to override concerns from the courts that Rwanda is not a safe country for asylum seekers.

Brexit and the partygate scandal are the most likely reasons for disillusionment in the UK s democracy, a polling chief has claimed in the wake of a survey that also found a strong appetite for reform among voters. Savanta surveyed UK voters about the state of democracy in the aftermath of the row in Parliament after speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle broke with precedent to allow a second Labour amendment to a vote calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Rishi Sunak is pushing for a voter-friendly Budget which can help the Conservatives rescue their position in the opinion polls before this year’s general election. Jeremy Hunt and Mr Sunak have worked together on the announcement and resolved their differences of opinion amicably behind closed doors, sources close to both men told i.

And here, i runs through the key announcements we could see.

George Galloway has called on Jeremy Corbyn to set up and lead a “socialist anti-war alliance” in a bid to challenge Sir Keir Starmer at the next general election. The left-wing firebrand was officially sworn into Parliament on Monday and immediately vowed to stand up to a hundred candidates in Labour-held seats on the “wedge issue” of the Israel-Gaza conflict.

The head of Ofcom has been accused of granting GB News a “free pass” on bias after suggesting the channel is held to lower impartiality standards than the BBC because it has fewer viewers. Melanie Dawes, CEO of the broadcasting watchdog, said the BBC, ITV and Sky News should be held to a higher standard than channels with a much smaller audience, such as GB News.

Up to 900,000 single parents in the UK may not be able to access the Government’s free childcare scheme, charities have warned, as ministers face growing pressure over the expansion. In a joint letter to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, seen by i, charities including Save the Children and Disability Rights UK said the Government’s childcare scheme excluded single parents unable to work.

‘Mini-organs’ have been grown for the first time using human stem cells taken during pregnancy, raising the possibility of monitoring and treating congenital conditions before a baby is born. Researchers grew these “mini-organs” – called organoids – from cells taken from a mother’s amniotic fluid so they retain the baby’s biological information.

Three key questions on Russia’s interception of German military audio:

What was in the audio? “As promised, I am publishing an audio conversation between Bundeswehr officers discussing how they will bomb the Crimean Bridge,” wrote Margarita Simonyan, the head of Russia’s RT news network last week, as she shared the clip. Russia is said to have intercepted the talks between Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz and three senior Luftwaffe officers as they used standard off-the-shelf Webex video conference software, running on an office line. The meeting was held to discuss the potential deployment of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine amid divisions in Mr Scholz’s coalition over the move.The call begins with a military official stating that “no one knows why the federal chancellor is blocking the dispatch of the missiles – this gives rise to all sorts of outlandish rumours. If we’re asked about delivery methods. I know how the British do this. They always transport them in Ridgeback armoured vehicles. They have several people on the ground,” he said. Airforce chief Ingo Gerhartz is heard saying the country’s defence minister has been wondering “what that would look like” if Germany did eventually decide to provide the missiles to Ukraine, and explains how the French “send [Audi] Q7s loaded with Scalp missiles to Ukraine”. He is also heard saying Britain had outfitted Ukrainian aircraft with Storm Shadows and could help with the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine. You can read more about the details of the call here.

What are the implications? There are fears that Russia could use the audio to try and trigger discord between Western allies. MP Tobias Ellwood, former chairman of the Commons Defence Committee said yesterday the leak was “worrying on a number of levels”. He told BBC Radio 4: The leak “revealed a tension, I think, between senior German military who want to see Taurus dispatched and the German Chancellor, who seems increasingly focused on his political survival rather than what’s best for the continent.” He continued: “You can see the tensions that are playing out in capital cities as to what we should do next in Ukraine because the tide does seem to be turning unless they receive greater support. They’ve not received the F-16s, they’re not receiving artillery shells that they need, and they’re not receiving the long range weapon system.” The scandal could also provide fodder for Donald Trump. A UK intelligence source told i the leak was well-timed by Russia to add to a “major trust issue” across European allies and provide “cat nip” for Mr Trump’s anti-Nato campaign. “The West is being outplayed…this is a game of chess and we have played some of our big pieces, they haven’t,” they told i. Another source said: “It will be fuel for Trump’s anti-Nato message. This is win win for them [Russia].” Intelligence sources said the leak is part of Vladimir Putin’s “grand strategic politics” to sow doubt about the security and resilience of Germany – a major Nato member. Read more on that, here. Meanwhile Downing St has responded to the questions raised about British “people on the ground”, saying a small number of personnel are in Ukraine to help train troops in areas such as medical assistance. However, the leak is “a matter for Germany”, it said. Meanwhile some experts have said the matters discussed in the recording would have already been known to Moscow. Mr Ellwood said “given the intensity of Russia’s spying on Germany and others, they probably have not learned anything that they didn’t already guess”.

Could there be more? Germany is said to be “lax” with its cyber security, leading to fears that more more top level information could have been intercepted. Now Berlin’s former intelligence chief August Hanning has warned more Nato secrets may have been compromised, telling Bild newspaper: “This leak could have been just the tip of the iceberg.” Later this week Lord Cameron will travel to Berlin for a meeting with the German foreign secretary, where the leaks are expected to be discussed. The Foreign Office said: “There will be detailed discussions about both the big issues of the moment: Ukraine and Gaza,” the Telegraph reported.

Around the world

 As Donald Trump edges closer to becoming the presumed Republican nominee for the presidential election, he is targeting a large group of voters who could help him in what is expected to be a tight race – the black electorate. Political analysts say the Republican Party has historically not been good at targeting or cultivating the black vote, whereas the Democrats have relied heavily on it.

A UN team has said there are “reasonable grounds” to believe Hamas raped and tortured women during its 7 October attack on Israel, and that hostages have been subjected to the same violence. Pramila Patten, the UN envoy focusing on sexual violence in conflict said there are also “reasonable grounds to believe that such violence may be ongoing.”

The US Supreme Court has ruled states cannot ban Donald Trump from running for president and he can appear on the ballot in Tuesday’s Colorado primary. The justices unanimously reversed a decision by Colorado’s top court to ban Mr Trump from the state’s Republican primary because he took part in an insurrection over his actions that led to the storming of the US Capitol on 6 January 2021.

French lawmakers voted on Monday to enshrine into their constitution the right for women to access abortion, as the country aims to lead the global fight against attempts to roll back hard-won reproductive rights. The measure does not change France’s law but does make it much harder for any future government to roll back reproductive rights.

It has been revealed that Taylor Swift is the sixth cousin, three times removed, of the celebrated American poet Emily Dickinson. Both are descended from a 17th-century English immigrant, according to an Ancestry report commissioned by NBC’s Today show.

 Watch out for…

 Super Tuesday, where voters in 15 US states and one territory will choose Republican and Democrat presidential nominees.  

 Thoughts for the day

 British people detest politicians. Who can blame them? Only 12 per cent said they trusted political parties, says Andrew Fisher.

On the banks of the River Dart, a political revolution is brewing. The good citizens of Totnes are trying to engineer a situation where opposition to the Tories is unified behind one candidate, reveals Simon Kelner.

Having Kate’s uncle Gary in CBB could not be more horrifying for the Royal Family. His presence in the Big Brother house, however tacky, demeaning and tasteless, would undeniably boost the viewing figures, writes Jennie Bond.

Culture Break

  ‘It’s shameful that junior doctors are paid the same as Pret workers’. As his new play ‘Nye’ explores the origins of the NHS, writer Tim Price discusses his anger at the crisis in the service and why Welsh theatre is under threat.

The Big Read

 My toaster has lasted 31 years – why does everything else break so quickly? Susie Mesure has managed to keep her Dualit going for decades but everything else needs replacing within a couple of years – now she’s fighting back.

Sport

 Horner is being helped by Verstappen’s dad acting like a deranged fool. Red Bull insiders say Jos Verstappen’s behaviour has drawn the wrath of the Formula One hierarchy, writes Kevin Garside.

Something to brighten your day

 Underwear in bed – yes or no? Experts weigh in. Is it best to go commando every night? Kia-Elise Green finds there’s division when it comes to underwear at night.