How significant is Labour’s victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West?

Welcome to Friday’s Early Edition from i.

In 2019, the then-SNP candidate Margaret Ferrier won the seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West with 44.2% of the vote. Labour came in second, with 34.5%. In the early hours of this morning, Labour’s Michael Shanks took a whopping 58.6% of the vote in the seat’s by-election, more than twice the number cast for the SNP. Sir Keir Starmer hailed the “seismic result”, which had exceeded previous polling estimates. The Tories didn’t even get a look in, and lost their deposit. The Labour leader insisted the by-election result is proof that people “want to move on from two SNP and Tory governments that offer only more division, more chaos and more infighting.” SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf said it was a “disappointing night” and that his party faced “some very difficult circumstances”. The result is particularly timely for Labour, which is kicking off its party conference this weekend. What does the latest result tell us about the state of the main parties and the upcoming general election? We’ll take a look, after the headlines.

 Today’s news, and why it matters

 The company behind HS2 bought a property worth over £1.5m under a compulsory purchase order less than 24 hours before the Prime Minister announced the northern leg of the scheme had been axed, i can reveal. A property agent who has acted on behalf of dozens of households impacted by CPOs told i that he had finalised a deal on an estate in Staffordshire for more than £1.5m on Tuesday afternoon.

Plans to send offenders to foreign jails will “almost certainly” face legal challenges in the courts, lawyers have told i. Justice Secretary Alex Chalk outlined plans on Wednesday to rent jails in other countries, in a bid to tackle capacity issues in the British prison system.

This month could be the hottest October on record globally as an emerging El Niño adds to the effects of global warming, forecasters are warning – and a mini-autumn heatwave is expected in parts of the UK. July 2023 currently holds the record for the hottest month ever, while August 2023 is the second-hottest month ever.

The director of a women’s organisation who was bitten and called a “slave” during a violent racist attack has accused a police officer of “sitting back and doing nothing” during the assault. Selma Taha was travelling home with two friends, who are also black, on the London Underground when a white woman launched into a torrent of racial abuse, including monkey chants.

Supermarkets have been putting security tags on food and essential household products as shoplifting for everyday items has soared during the cost of living crisis. The Office for National Statistics reported a 24 per cent rise in shoplifting offences over the past year. Users on social media shared pictures of loo rolls, coffee, and sweets secured with labels to deter shoplifters.

Three questions after the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election:

How significant is this for Labour? The huge swing towards the party has been seized on as a sign of things to come. “If this sort of swing was replicated north of the border Labour would become the dominant party,” Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, told the BBC. “It’s well above the kinds of swings we’ve seen in the opinion polls in Scotland,” he said. That means the Labour vote in the constituency is almost as high as it was in 2010 before the tsunami that swept the Labour party from virtually every constituency in Scotland.” The newly-elected MP Michael Shanks said the vote sent a “resoundingly clear” message. “We have had more than enough of managed decline, more than enough of division, more than enough of distracted, chaotic government,” he said, adding: “there is no part of this country where Labour can’t win”. And Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie also told the broadcaster: “If you extrapolate that across Scotland, it puts us competitive — I’m making no assumptions — but competitive in 42 seats.” A source for the party also told the Times: “It’s a big thing, and very humbling they are putting their faith in us again.” The SNP’s Keith Brown admitted it was a “very good victory” for Labour but added: “This moves Labour from one seat to two seats in Scotland. The SNP has over 40 seats.” When it comes to a national picture, there are some fresh warnings for the party. Some of the key figures in Blair’s 1997 election win told the Guardian Labour needs to set out a much clearer policy platform to win voters’ and form a government. Alastair Campbell said: “You want policy, and you want your policies to be known about, and you want to be able to defend them and to argue them. I sometimes worry that the Labour party today doesn’t.”

What does it mean for the SNP? Humza Yousaf admitted it was an unfortunate result, but also pointed to the “collapse in the Tory vote, which went straight to Labour” as one reason for the landslide.  The vote comes at a tricky time for the SNP. As BBC correspondent Philip Sim pointed out: “Mr Yousaf … has come in the door at the moment where it’s Labour who are able to pitch themselves as the force of insurgent change at Westminster – at the same time as his SNP are finding it increasingly hard not to be seen as the long-standing establishment at Holyrood.” Despite the crushing defeat, SNP MP David Linden appeared optimistic about what might happen for his party at the next general election. He told LBC: “The seat has swung back and forth like a pendulum at every election since 2010. Onwards to the general election, where I expect a very different result.” He added: “A week’s a long time in politics, and there’s a year to go to the next general election”.  However local voters recently spoke to i about being fed up. One, a 38-year-old teacher, said he believes a nationwide movement towards Labour is happening in Scotland, with voters tiring of both the Tories and the SNP. “Let’s be honest, Scotland isn’t very Tory-minded at the best of times. The thing with Ferrier, Nicola Sturgeon going – most governments are lucky if they get two and a half terms, and they’ve [the SNP] had going on four now. They’ve had a long, long time, and it’s just taken a wee bit longer for the wheels to come off.” Read the full piece here.  

What about the Tories? The Conservatives, along with the other minority parties, lost their deposit in Thursday’s by-election, taking just 1,192 votes. But that embarrassment will probably be the least of the party’s worries. SNP deputy leader Keith Brown suggested that: “The Tories face the prospect of losing all their seats in Scotland, with a devastating result that saw them lose their deposit.” But Scottish Tory candidate Thomas Kerr said tactical voting “squeezed” Tory support, with voters keen to “send a message” to the SNP, and predicted voters will return to the Conservatives in future elections. Will that happen? New Statesman’s deputy political editor Rachel Wearmouth noted: “It sounds increasingly bizarre for Rishi Sunak to say the public is undecided about Keir Starmer at this point. Result after result suggests people are pretty keen.” A recent poll by Survation showed a majority of readers of right-leaning newspapers were also likely to vote Labour over Tories, with estimates that 46% of Sun readers would vote for Sir Keir and 34% for Sunak. For Telegraph readers, the result was 41% Labour, 31% Tory.

 Around the world

 Donald Trump allegedly discussed potentially sensitive information about US nuclear submarines with a member of his Mar-a-Lago Club – Australian billionaire Anthony Pratt. ABC News alleged Mr Pratt went on to share the information with more than a dozen foreign officials, several of his own employees, a handful of journalists “and three former Australian prime ministers”. The potential disclosure was reported to special counsel Jack Smith’s team investigating Trump’s alleged hoarding of classified documents.

A Russian strike on a village in northeastern Ukraine has killed at least 51 people, including a six-year-old boy, as the death toll continues to rise. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia had hit a grocery store in the attack on Thursday, describing it as a “brutal Russian crime” in a post on the Telegram messaging app.

A drone attack on a Syrian military academy in the city of Homs has killed at least 100 people and left dozens injured. It targeted a graduation ceremony attended by cadets’ families, and women and children were among the dead. The army blamed “terrorist groups backed by known international forces”.

Vladimir Putin has claimed fragments of a hand grenade were found in the bodies of people who died in the plane crash that killed Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. Mr Putin told a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club in the Black Sea resort of Sochi that experts investigating the crash found no indication the plane had suffered an “external impact”.

Parents could be banned from posting photographs of their children on social media and prosecuted if they flout the rule under a new French bill. The legislation would give family court judges powers to intervene when parents were deemed to have infringed their children’s right to privacy through excessive or inappropriate posts.

 Watch out for…

 More horror stories about bedbugs, as the plague of insects continues to cause panic among travellers. 

 Thoughts for the day

 What Kemi Badenoch gets wrong about racism in the UK. Suggestions that living in Britain is a universally positive experience are hard to stomach, says Kuba Shand-Baptiste.

I’m a climate expert – this is why the planet is nearing its doom. We just don’t know if the door to a safe operating space for humanity is in the process of being slammed shut, warns James Dyke.

So Jamie Oliver wishes he wasn’t famous? Let’s unpick that, shall we. I’m not entirely sure I really believe him, writes Dave McKenna.

 Culture Break

 Rick Astley: ‘The songs I love don’t work in a Manchester accent. They sound stupid’. The 80s heart-throb talks about his new album, how money changed him, and his return to the stage.

 The Big Read

 It’s not just Sam Bankman-Fried on trial – it’s the entire £660bn crypto industry. The £6bn collapse of FTX has sparked a reappraisal of the blockchain currency industry – with detractors comparing it to gambling and its supporters arguing it can still transform global financial systems, reports Cahal Milmo.

Sport

 Stadium bans are deeply unfair – why should all West Ham fans miss out due to a few idiots? The crimes of a mindless few in the Conference League final have punished the many, says Daniel Storey.

Something to brighten your day

 How to get away with only exercising at the weekend – and still be healthy. No time to work out in the week? No problem. Experts share how to reap the rewards of being a ‘weekend warrior’.