How Suella Braverman’s Rwanda scheme is falling apart  

Welcome to Monday’s Early Edition from i.

“The reality is that we need a robust and honest approach to dealing with this problem. Opening our doors to thousands of migrants from the EU is not the solution. We need a deterrent, and that is why our agreement with Rwanda will work. It is based on what has worked in other countries such as Australia, and I am confident that we will be able to deliver our Rwanda plan as soon as possible.” That was Suella Braverman talking during a debate in parliament last month on Channel crossings. But it’s no secret that the government’s plans have been beset by problems. Not least of those is the fact that the scheme is being upheld by courts wrangling over its legality. But there are other significant issues too. In July, it was reported that the charter airline the Government intended to use had pulled out from the scheme due to pressure from campaigners. At the end of summer there were also reports that the government could send refugees to Ascension Island if the Rwanda scheme fell through, although that was also accused of being unworkable and a distraction from the current chaos over housing asylum seekers in the UK. It’s not the only unusual idea – the notion of promising a referendum over quitting the European Convention on Human Rights has even been floated. Now the Home Secretary’s own officials have said the “absurd” scheme might not happen at all. What is going on? We’ll take a look, after the headlines.

 Today’s news, and why it matters

 Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are to resist increasingly urgent calls from Conservative MPs for tax cuts next month despite the party’s double by-election defeats. A former cabinet minister, who is still a sitting Tory MP, warned the rout in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire showed the party is “sleepwalking to disaster” at the next election and that the electorate would not vote for “two competent but dull bank managers” regardless of policies.

Years of successive governments’ failure to pass on wealth from London to the regions widened the north-south divide and likely contributed to Brexit, a series of former prime ministers and ministers have said. Sir John Major said the fact that the trickle-down economics of the preceding Thatcher years did not sufficiently benefit northern England and other regions contributed to the UK voting to leave the European Union in 2016.

The family of a missing 16-year-old British girl, Noiya Sharabi, have announced she was killed in Hamas’s attack on Israel earlier this month. Militants killed Noiya’s mother Lianne in a massacre of residents at Kibbutz Be’eri on 7 October – and she and her 13-year-old sister Yahel disappeared afterwards.

Simon Case, the country’s most senior civil servant, is to take a medical leave of absence for a few weeks, the Government has confirmed. The 44-year-old Cabinet Secretary is to step back from his job as head of the UK Civil Service due to a private medical matter but is expected to return later this year.

The top Government scientist who labelled Rishi Sunak “Dr Death” for his Eat Out to Help Out scheme during Covid has been working with the Prime Minister on his flagship artificial intelligence summit, i can reveal. Dame Angela McLean has been actively contributing to the Government’s preparations for the global AI conference at Bletchley Park next week in her role as No 10’s chief scientific adviser.

Three current hurdles for the Rwanda plan:

Chaos and major legal doubts: Insiders have spoken out about turmoil within the Home Office prompted by a range of practical issues, from deadlines to difficulties in implementing the Illegal Migration Act. One Home Office official described the act as a “stupid law” that is impossible to put into effect. One official involved in implementing the Bill told i: “This is a stupid law unless you have a stream of countries lined up to send people to.Ms Braverman is running the risk of being unable to fulfil a duty she sought for herself. It’s absurd but that is the way it is – she made her own bed.” Another Civil Service warned the way the Act has been framed will leave a “boxed in” Ms Braverman open to even more legal challenges. But this time they could come from right wing anti-migration groups rather than “lefty lawyers”. Read the full story here.  

Time: A decision on the legality of the Rwanda scheme is expected by the Supreme Court by mid-December at the earliest. That gives civil servants a deadline of January for the scheme to begin. Last night, the Mail reported that a date of 24 February had been pencilled in for the first flight to take place if the plan is declared lawful. But even then, one Tory source told the paper there “is growing pessimism” about the case with a 60% chance of the government losing. They added: “If we lose, it’s got to be election campaign mode on getting us out of Strasbourg – put the old Vote Leave gang back together and run it relentlessly.” And an election is another major potential hurdle for the scheme. Labour has already said it will overturn the policy if it forms government, even if the scheme is declared lawful and operational. “Everyone is making the assumption there’s going to be a change of government and change of political direction,” one source told i. “Operations are trying to gear up to meet political expectations but people are pretty sceptical.”

The details of the Illegal Migration Act: When it first passed through Parliament, the PM’s spokesperson admitted that while the laws are an “important part of our work to stop the boats” it “needs to be paired with the Rwanda partnership which is being challenged in the courts”. The Act itself may become a hurdle if the government cannot fulfil its migrant removal clause. The law was described previously as a “massive own goal by Suella Braverman”. Now Civil Service staff are asking how Ms Braverman would fulfil her legal duty if the courts rule against the Rwanda plan. “Has she got the resources, where is she going to send people?”

Around the world

 Israel will place the hostages kidnapped by Hamas “front and centre” of its military planning as its forces prepare to mount an invasion of Gaza, according to a former hostage negotiator. Scott Walker, who worked for military intelligence as a detective in counter-terrorism and kidnapping operations, said opinion would “turn against” the Israeli government if it continues its bombardment of Gaza without appearing to prioritise the hostages’ safety.

The Israeli military has apologised after one of its tanks accidentally opened fired and injured Egyptian border guards at the Gaza Strip border on Sunday. The Israel Defence Forces said an Egyptian post near Kerem Shalom, a commercial goods junction, was hit in the strike. The IDF is investigating how it happened, adding it “expresses sorrow regarding the incident”.

Argentina’s economy minister Sergio Massa has won more than 36% of the vote in the country’s presidential election, putting him on course for a run-off contest with far-right candidate Javier Milei. Many pollsters believed voters would punish Mr Massa for presiding over a financial crisis, with the country’s inflation rate nearing 140%.

The 2019 fire at Notre Dame devastated much of the ancient cathedral. But it also shone a light on some of its hidden treasures, including medieval manuscripts and a cloak from the coronation of Napoleon Bonaparte, which are now going on display at the Louvre. Father Michel Frament in Paris said: “The fire was sad but it has led to some positive events.”

 Watch out for…

 Suella Braverman, this time on a different note – today she will be demanding an from Met Police chief Sir Mark Rowley over the handling of pro-Palestine protesters chanting “jihad” at the weekend.  

 Thoughts for the day

 The Conservatives may be down, but they’re not out yet. We’re a long way from game over, writes Anne McElvoy.

We can’t switch off and ignore the Israel-Gaza conflict. Others don’t have a choice. It’s too late for young Noa and Gidi Chiel. May their memories be a blessing, says Stefano Hatfield.

It feels like a little bit of England has died with Sir Bobby Charlton. Ad astra Wor Bobby, an England great and a great Englishman, writes Kevin Garside.

The five day week is dead – long live the 4.5-day week. Thanks to a little Chardonnay bribery and a free breakfast here and there, the office champions have won in the end, argues Viv Groskop.

Culture Break

 ‘Top Gear wasn’t laddish. We weren’t misogynistic. We were three nice blokes’. Richard Hammond talks the latest season of ‘Workshop’, the future of electric cares, and why ‘Top Gear’ wasn’t what you think it was.

The Big Read

 Promises of new towns keep being broken – here’s why Keir Starmer’s are likely to go just the same way. The Labour leader has put new towns at the centre of his pledge to ‘get Britain building again’. But without council housing and state money experts fear the project is ‘doomed’.

Sport

 The making of Micky van de Ven: The Dutch reserve who became a Spurs fan favourite. Four years ago Van de Ven was on the verge of leaving a Dutch second division team without playing a game. Now he’s starring for the Premier League title challengers.

 Something to brighten your day

 I’ve stopped doing life admin – I have 16k emails in my inbox and I don’t care. The average person will spend eight hours and 48 minutes a week on life admin – like taking their car to the garage, or filing tax returns. Here’s how Kasia Delgado learnt to let a lot of it slide.