The latest obstacles facing Sunak’s Rwanda bill 

Welcome to Monday’s Early Edition from i.

After a week of crunch talks, a crunch vote is expected to take place in the coming days on the Government’s controversial Rwanda bill. Discussions over Rishi Sunak’s legislation, aimed at reviving the beleaguered policy, has so far been as fraught as the initial plan, which was deemed unlawful by the Supreme Court last year. The new bill has once again divided Tories – from those who don’t believe it goes far enough to those who fear it will breach international law. But fresh revelations may also help to derail the policy. An investigation by i exposed that six people from the East African nation have been granted asylum in the UK since the deportation deal was signed in 2022. Experts say the revelation “fatally undermines” the Government’s claim that Rwanda is a safe third country to send asylum seekers to. The bill returns to the Commons this week for a debate on the amendments, and a key vote, which is expected to take place on Wednesday evening. We’ll take a look at the obstacles the plan now faces, after the headlines.

Today’s news, and why it matters

The UK must be prepared to “defend our nation whenever the call comes” as we enter a new era of threats, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will warn today. Some 20,000 British troops are being sent to join one of Nato’s largest military exercises in recent times, the Government has announced.

Police have arrested six people in connection with an alleged plot to shut down the London Stock Exchange. Pro-Palestine activists were reportedly intending to lock themselves onto the headquarters of one of the largest stock markets in the world on Monday morning to prevent the building opening for trading.

The Conservative Party is facing a 1997-style electoral wipeout that would hand Labour a 120-seat majority, a major opinion poll suggests. A YouGov survey of 14,000 people indicates Rishi Sunak’s Tories could hold on to as few as 169 seats as Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour enters Downing Street with 385.

Cash-strapped councils are fuelling residential rat infestations and putting public health at risk by reducing bin collections to cut costs, pest controllers have warned. Local authorities across the UK have scaled back waste management services over recent years to plug budgetary gaps in the face of soaring inflation and crippling funding cuts from central government.

A couple – including a recent amputee – claimed they have not received letters for three weeks, including important medical appointments. Delays to the Royal Mail letter service in the Christmas aftermath have held up important post, including hospital letters, pensions documents, bank cards and legal papers.

Five migrants have died in French waters while trying to cross the Channel, French authorities have announced. The boat, carrying roughly 70 people, overturned in the early hours of Sunday morning, according to reports.

Three fresh obstacles facing the Rwanda bill:

How the government will square recently granting asylum to Rwandans while also trying to deem it a safe country: On Sunday, i revealed that six people from Rwanda have been granted asylum in Britain since the deportation deal with the country was signed in 2022. It includes two men from Rwanda who were offered a grant of protection by the Home Office in 2022, and a woman who received the same in 2023. The Home Office did not disclose the reasons for granting asylum to each individual, but Government data show at least one decision was based on sexual orientation. Read more on that, here. Lawyers say some of those may have been granted asylum for speaking out against the Rwandan government, which could undermine the appeals component of Mr Sunak’s Safety of Rwanda Bill, which aims to designate it a safe country for refugees. Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general, said it could pave the way for appeals against deportation there. And solicitors at Duncan Lewis, which has represented some of the asylum seekers facing deportation to Rwanda, told i it was “quite clearly further illustration of what has been confirmed by the UK Supreme Court – that Rwanda’s human rights record is such that removing people there would be unlawful”. Read more here. One Rwandan refugee granted asylum in the UK told i their country was “not really safe and it doesn’t respect human rights”. They said: “There are problems with gender equality, imprisonment of people campaigning for political elections, or journalists for expressing their view. I’ve seen no change,” they added. “If anything, it’s got worse.”

Rebelling Tories: At least 50 Tory MPs are threatening to rebel if the PM doesn’t accept changes that would mean lawyers can’t use the Human Rights Act or European Convention on Human Rights to stop flights to Rwanda. One of those, Devizes MP Danny Kruger, told i the right wing of the party is “united” over the issue. “What we have now, and I think this is a significant development, is that the conservative wing of the Conservative Party is united, perhaps more than it’s been for a long time, certainly since Brexit on the way ahead.” The Conservative Party deputy chairman Lee Anderson has threatened to rebel, it has been reported, and Kemi Badenoch has reportedly urged Mr Sunak to toughen up the legislation by stopping migrants lodging individual appeals, the Times reported. However Tory moderates are threatening a counter-rebellion, putting down amendments to remove measures to declare Rwanda a “safe country”, to override human rights laws and to disregard international court rulings. (You can read about all the changes Tory rebel groups want here). Despite this, ministers are said to be increasingly optimistic of passing the laws to save the policy. However, it would take around 55 Tory MPs abstaining, or 32 voting against it, for the Government to lose. According to the Guardian, Tory rebels say as many as 70 could back amendments or abstain.

The polls: According to a poll by YouGov for the Times, some 40 per cent of voters back Labour’s pledge to scrap Rishi Sunak’s plan. However nearly half of voters said they didn’t trust either party on the issue.

Around the world

 Cargo vessels passing through the Red Sea are transmitting messages declaring links to China or destinations in Russia as part of a range of apparent tactics to reduce the risk of attack by Houthi rebels in Yemen, according to experts. The missile campaign by the rebels targeting commercial shipping across the southern entrance to the Red Sea has led to a drop of around 40 per cent in the volume of Europe-bound cargo passing through the Suez Canal.

The US says its military has shot down an anti-ship cruise missile fired from a Houthi area of Yemen aimed at a US destroyer in the Red Sea. US Central Command on Sunday said fighter aircraft shot down the missile, which was launched towards the USS Laboon. No injuries or damage was reported.

Prominent opponents of former president Donald Trump say they are on the receiving end of a record increase in violent political threats. In fresh evidence of a breakdown in the country’s societal mores, attorney general Merrick Garland is now warning of a “deeply disturbing spike” in threats against civil servants and prominent public figures.

The world’s five richest men have more than doubled their fortunes since 2020, while the world’s poorest 60% have lost money, according to a report. Oxfam says the world could crown its first trillionaire within a decade.

Denmark has welcomed its new King after Queen Margrethe II formally abdicated. Tens of thousands of people gathered in Copenhagen to celebrate her son, Frederik X, taking the throne.

 Watch out for…

 Snow and ice brought by a fresh wave of Arctic air, which is threatening to cause travel disruption across Britain today. A severe weather alert for snow has been issued for the north west and some rural communities have been warned they could be temporarily cut off. 

 Thoughts for the day

 China’s dictatorship has been embarrassed by the people of Taiwan. The presidential tussle in Taiwan that saw vice president William Lai take the top job sends out a strong signal to the world about the value of freedom, writes Ian Birrell.

Customer service is surely designed to irritate – it must be. Where is the responsibility or scrutiny, asks Stefano Hatfield.

Yes, people are now looking for love on LinkedIn. You can see much more about someone’s education, background and pedigree from the platform, reveals Angelica Malin.

Culture Break

 Bright, tender and really, really funny – Big Boys is perfect January TV. Jack Rooke’s writing and Jon Pointing’s performance as Danny perfectly capture the knife edge of laddish masculinity and mental health.

The Big Read

 I started a single mums’ commune – it was so much easier than living with a man. When their marriages came to an end, three friends found an innovative way to live. Could their communal solution be the answer for other parents?

Sport

 ‘My battle scars’: Emma Raducanu injury comeback shows she has plenty of fight. The 21-year-old has had a rollercoaster introduction to life in professional tennis, James Gray writes.

 Something to brighten your day

 30 habits to make your life happier without much effort. How to bring a little more joy into each day, according to experts.