What happens next in Rochdale?  

Welcome to Tuesday’s Early Edition from i.

Since Israel’s invasion of Gaza, Sir Keir Starmer has faced a series of crises. Last October he upset many on the left of the party when he appeared to suggest Israel was justified in cutting off the water and power in Gaza, a position he later clarified. Then in November, eight shadow ministers resigned from the front bench after being ordered not to vote in support of a permanent ceasefire. Dozens of councillors also left the party in protest. That row was damaging, with polls at the time showing nearly 40 per cent of voters thought Sir Keir had handled the conflict badly, and many thought it showed Labour as a divided party. At the start of this year Labour hardened its tone towards Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, but Muslims in the party warned Sir Keir faced a “full blown crisis” due to his stance on Gaza. The chair of the Labour Muslim Network said people of the faith no longer feel safe in the party and that declining support is a “serious problem” for MPs in places with large Muslim populations. Now Sir Keir faces another problem. Support for the party’s candidate in the upcoming Rochdale by-election has been withdrawn, over remarks he made about the conflict. Labour is facing what it describes as “highly unusual circumstances”. We’ll take a look at what happened, and what will occur next, after the headlines.

Today’s news, and why it matters

 Right-wing Tory MPs are considering replacing Rishi Sunak if Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party performs well in two by-elections on Thursday, i understands. Sources close to the right of the party said they would be closely monitoring Reform UK’s performance in both Wellingborough and Kingswood amid growing fears that traditional Tory voters could jump ship at the general election.

The UK economy is expected to be declared officially in recession when figures are published later this week. Economists have told i they not only expect the economy to be in recession, but also said a bigger worry is that its has been “more or less stagnant” for two years.

Due to a slump in trade and investment since the Brexit referendum, the UK economy is 5 per cent worse off now than it would have been had it never left the European Union, according to a report by global investment bank Goldman Sachs.

TalkTV could follow Piers Morgan’s move to YouTube with online-only programmes rebranded as The Sun TV to replace the struggling news channel. It comes after i revealed last week that insiders fear the Murdoch-owned TalkTV will close following the departure of its biggest star.

Crime scene investigators could soon be using bacteria and fungi to solve complex murder cases. Research has found that certain microbes are reliable indicators for determining the precise time of death, because they appear at different stages of the decomposition process.

Researchers are hopeful that a blood test that can predict the risk of dementia more than a decade before diagnosis may one day be used as a screening tool in the NHS. The blood test looks for changes in certain proteins in the blood and the scientists behind it say it could predict dementia up to 15 years before the condition is formally diagnosed in patients.

Three key things on the Rochdale by-election:

What happened in Rochdale? Earlier this week the Mail on Sunday published written excerpts of what it said was a recording of Rochdale candidate Azhar Ali speaking at a meeting of the Lancashire Labour Party shortly after 7 October. In them, Mr Ali appeared to suggest that he believed Israel deliberately lowered its guard to use the Hamas terror attacks as a pretext to invade Gaza. Mr Ali later issued an “unreserved” apology for the “deeply offensive, ignorant, and false” comments. Labour initially stood by their candidate, claiming he had fallen “for an online conspiracy” and insisted he is not anti-Semitic. Sources told i the Labour leadership initially made the decision to stick with Mr Ali because George Galloway, who is also standing in the seat and is backed by a strong Muslim contingent, would seek to turn the by-election into a “referendum on Gaza”. However, the decision to stick with Mr Ali was met with anger within Labour ranks. Then last night Labour withdrew its support for Mr Ali, citing “further comments” that had come to light. A Labour party spokeswoman said: “Following new information about further comments made by Azhar Ali coming to light today, the Labour party has withdrawn its support for Azhar Ali as our candidate in the Rochdale by-election.” She added: “Keir Starmer has changed Labour so that it is unrecognisable from the party of 2019. We understand that these are highly unusual circumstances but it is vital that any candidate put forward by Labour fully represents its aims and values.” Read more here.

What damage has it done to Labour? The saga will raise fresh questions over Sir Keir Starmer’s decision making, Richard Vaughan writes. “There is little doubt that the party leadership faced a difficult choice when it was confronted with the recording of Mr Ali. Withdrawing Labour’s endorsement for their candidate would mean the party will not have anyone on the ballot standing for the party and is a major call to have to make just three weeks out from the by-election. But there was already deep concern over the Starmer’s refusal to come down as hard on Mr Ali for his comments about Israel as he had done for other Labour MPs, some of whom are still suspended under the party’s rules. Labour eventually came to the decision that it could not stand by their man in Rochdale, but critics will claim that as with the slow motion u-turn on the £28bn green prosperity plan Starmer can be too hesitant when the big decisions come along.” The Campaign Against Antisemitism described the situation as “the worst of all worlds for Labour”. It said: “Rather than appearing as a principled decision, Labour’s withdrawal of support for its candidate at this late stage just looks as expedient as the failed attempt to defend him.” The Labour leadership has also come under pressure for suspending MPs for what some party insiders believed to be smaller infractions, including most recently Kate Osamor, who referenced “genocide” in Gaza while signing a book on Holocaust Memorial Day.

What happens now? The deadline for the candidate to withdraw and for Labour to replace its candidate in Rochdale was 2 February, which means Mr Ali will be listed as the Labour candidate on the ballot paper. However if elected, he will sit as an independent MP. The latest twist now opens the possibility for other candidates standing in the seat to win the vote. Former Labour MP Simon Danczuk, who is the Reform Party candidate, and George Galloway, of the Workers Party of Britain, who is campaigning against Labour’s stance on Gaza, are both standing. Around 20% of the electorate and 30% of the population of the town are Asian, with polls nationally suggesting Labour’s vote could be hit by Asian people unhappy with the party over Palestine and its perceived support for Israel. But as the Guardian’s Helen Pidd notes: “A Galloway victory is not a foregone conclusion. Until now, he has concentrated his campaign solely on Rochdale’s Muslim community, who make up 30% of the local population. Though he is undoubtedly picking up support, at a rally outside a mosque on Friday his campaign team had to encourage the audience to move nearer to the front so that it didn’t look so sparsely attended.”

Around the world

 Former US President Donald Trump has asked America’s top court to pause a judicial decision that he does not have immunity from being prosecuted for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss. Trump’s lawyers filed an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court on Monday, saying: “Without immunity from criminal prosecution, the presidency as we know it will cease to exist.”

Palestinians in Rafah are “waiting for the worst” as Israel prepares for ground operations in what has been described as the world’s largest refugee camp, despite growing international pressure to abandon plans over fears for the civilian population. The southern Gaza city, home to an estimated 1.4 million Palestinians after mass evacuations from other areas, came under heavy bombardment overnight during an operation to free two hostages with at least 67 people killed, according to local health officials.

Robert F Kennedy Jr has apologised to relatives after a Super Bowl advert mirrored one broadcast by his uncle John F Kennedy’s campaign in 1960. One of Mr Kennedy’s cousins criticised the advert and the candidate’s anti-vaccine activism.

A stone age wall discovered beneath the waves off Germany’s Baltic coast may be the oldest known megastructure built by humans in Europe, researchers say. The wall, described as a “thrilling discovery”, is covered by 21 metres of water, but researchers believe it was constructed by hunter-gatherers on land next to a lake or marsh more than 10,000 years ago.

 Watch out for…

 new rules aimed at boosting the number of homes in Britain’s biggest cities, including a push for more developments on brownfield sites in London. 

 Thoughts for the day

 Even Michael Gove has run out of ideas on how to fix the housing crisis. Britain’s housing crisis is proof that the experience of ‘democracy’ looks very different depending on how wealthy you are, writes Vicky Spratt.

Trump has forgotten the art of the deal. The former US president often talks as though words are cheap – unfortunately their eventual price may be very high indeed, says Mark Wallace.

Why women have no option but to trust the police. What else can we do, asks Emma Barnett.

Culture Break

 ‘Society of the Snow’ director JA Bayona on finding the humanity in cannibalism. The film-maker explains to Nick Duerden why he wanted to frame the desperate acts of the Andes plane crash survivors as a story of compassion.

The Big Read

 Rees-Mogg could face defeat like Portillo if Tories lose Kingswood by-election. Why a poor Tory show in Kingswood could mean a memorable election defeat for Jacob Rees-Mogg, comparable to Michael Portillo’s 1997 loss, say opponents.

Sport

 Conor Gallagher inspires second-half Chelsea comeback against Crystal Palace. The former Palace loanee turns chief tormentor as Chelsea awaken from a first-half slumber to earn themselves a victory over the Eagles, writes Oliver Young-Myles.

Something to brighten your day

 How the experts do intermittent fasting. If you haven’t tried intermittent fasting yet, you could be missing out. The experts tell i how they do it.