i morning briefing: What today’s GDP figures might – and might not

Welcome to Thursday’s Early Edition from i.

The ONS will release figures early this morning that may confirm what many have feared for some months – that Britain has entered a recession. Last year, the cost-of-living squeeze and higher fuel bills saw households cut spending, fuelling concerns that the economy was on course to shrink. Most economists are forecasting a 0.1 per cent decline in GDP for the last three months of 2023, which would mean the UK technically dipped into a recession. But how significant is it? Economists are divided as to whether that drop tells us much about the state of the economy, or whether it will have an impact on people’s daily lives. What are the economic indicators we should be worrying about today instead, and will it impact Labour and the Tories? We’ll take a look, after the headlines.

 Today’s news, and why it matters

 Victims of sexual violence are being told to avoid therapy in case it is used against them to charge suspects and get convictions in court. A survivor of rape and sexual assault told i she avoided therapy for two years while the perpetrator was being investigated by police and awaiting his trial, prolonging her trauma.

Senior Cabinet ministers – including Jeremy Hunt, Gillian Keegan and Grant Shapps – are on track to lose their seats at the next general election, a major new poll has found. A survey of more than 18,000 people by polling firms Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus suggested that Rishi Sunak will be left with only 80 MPs after the next general election in a wipeout that would mark the Tories’ worst result in history.

The number of antisemitic incidents recorded by a charity in the UK have hit an all-time high, at almost double its previous record, as it described the numbers as “an absolute disgrace”. The Community Security Trust said more than 4,000 incidents were recorded last year, with the rise being put down to the “sheer volume” which took place following the Hamas attacks of 7 October.

Women across England and Wales may have been affected by a faulty product at egg freezing clinics, leaving some potentially unable to have children, a lawyer representing possible victims said. Guy’s Hospital in London issued an apology to 136 women on Wednesday after discovering it may have inadvertently used defective batches of a freezing solution in September and October 2022.

XL Bully dogs are being abandoned in parks in Scotland as the country’s belated ban on the breed comes into force later this month. Campaigners have blamed the Scottish Government for the “mad scramble” which has seen XL Bullies being moved north of the border in recent months in a bid to dodge the ban in England and Wales.

The Met Office has issued two yellow weather warnings for rain on Thursday amid fears of possible flooding for parts of the country. Parts of southwestern England and south Wales will be hit with heavy rain from 11am until midnight, which could bring some disruption.

Three questions on today’s economic figures:

Is a recession worth worrying about? The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has said people shouldn’t put too much importance on today’s outcome. Speaking to students earlier this week he said: “I wouldn’t put too much weight on that. If we do get two successive negative quarters – and we don’t know – it will be very shallow. What I would put more weight on is that the indicators we have seen since then have shown some signs of upturn. There is still a long way to go, but we are beginning to see signs of an upturn.” Stephen Millard, a deputy director at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, explains the difference of being in technical recession or not comes down to very small figures. He writes: “The sweeping job cuts we associate with those kind of events – apparent during the financial crisis and Covid pandemic – are unlikely to come to pass.” But he argues there are other signs that must not be ignored. “Regardless of what we see on Thursday, the UK economy is growing at a snail’s pace. And it gets worse. If we adjust for population growth over this period, this average growth rate turns negative,” he says. This means the average person is becoming worse off over time, and once again, it is living standards that will be hit. Read his full piece here.

What about interest rates and inflation? Britain’s ongoing struggle with inflation has caused pain for consumers and the government alike. But yesterday’s stabilised figures came as a boost. Jeremy Hunt said “the plan is working,” while Rishi Sunak said “I absolutely believe that the economy has turned the corner and we’re now pointing in the right direction”. Andrew Bailey said yesterday’s figures “leaves us broadly where we thought we were going to be”. But the big question is whether today’s figures might put more pressure on the Bank for interest rate cuts. Many mortgage-holders will be hoping so.

How might it affect Labour and the Tories? As Hugo Gye writes, the simplest explanation for why the Tories are still doing so badly in the polls is the classic one – it’s the economy. He writes: “Since the global surge in inflation, which squeezed living standards and caused interest rates to rise, governing parties around the world have seen their popularity drop. There is no real prospect the Tories will face that sort of epic wipeout. But to avoid a heavy defeat, they will need a lot more nuggets of economic good news.” Read his full analysis here. The FT quoted Labour officials who said if Britain does enter a technical recession today it would be a “big moment”. They said: “To have people talking about recession in an election year isn’t good for Rishi Sunak. His selling point was supposed to be that he knew how to run the economy.” Reaction on the figures, whichever way they go, is likely to be swift this morning.

Around the world

 At least one person has died and more than 20 others have been wounded after a shooting near the victory parade for the Kansas City Chiefs, local police have said. Of the 22 gunshot victims, eight were children, and 15 victims suffered life-threatening injuries.

The generosity was almost certainly unintended, but it is increasingly clear that Donald Trump has bestowed upon Joe Biden one of the greatest Valentine’s Day gifts in history. By threatening to spark a Third World War, Trump handed Biden a present that did not need to be wrapped up with a ribbon, and simultaneously spread anxiety throughout governments in Europe, which fear that Nato’s defensive shield may now come with an expiry date.

The chairman of the US House of Representatives intelligence committee has revealed that information about an unspecified “serious national security threat” has been made available to all members of Congress . Sources told US media the intelligence concerns Russian plans to put a nuclear weapon into space with one saying the intelligence is “very concerning and very sensitive”.

A former military general who has styled himself as a “cuddly grandpa” on TikTok despite having been accused of human rights abuses is set to become Indonesia’s next president. Prabowo Subianto was once banned from entering the United States, but will now stand on the global stage as leader of the world’s third-largest democracy.

Just under a fifth of Americans believe Taylor Swift is part of a conspiracy to help Joe Biden win re-election in November, a new poll has found. “Even many who hadn’t heard about it before we polled them accept the idea as credible. Welcome to the 2024 election,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced his engagement to his partner of four years, Jodie Haydon. He proposed on Valentine’s Day, with a ring he specially designed.

 Watch out for…

 Wellingborough and Kingswood, where Labour hopes to flip Tory majorities in two by-elections today. A Tory defeat in either constituency would the Government has clocked up more by-election losses in a single parliament than any administration since the 1960s. 

 Thoughts for the day

 Keir Starmer has made the worst mistake of his leadership so far. But don’t get too relaxed, Rishi – Labour will bounce back from this mess, writes Ian Dunt.

Wegovy worked for me, but I lost a lot more than weight. The weight loss came at too much of a cost to how I live my life – I missed the joy of food, reveals Kate Lister.

The history behind Azhar Ali’s antisemitic conspiracy theory. Many such conspiracy theories have their roots in Soviet Russia, explains Kate Maltby.

Culture Break

 Meghan Markle is perfect for Lemonada’s glossy, girlboss-feminist podcast empire. The Duchess of Sussex’s mic-friendly valley girl tones and generic empowerment language are ideal for a podcast network aiming to ‘make life suck less’, writes Emily Bootle.

The Big Read

 I was too anxious to leave my house – because Britain’s public toilets have disappeared. Local authorities and government should recognise that public-accessible toilets are a fundamental pillar of public health, say the British Toilet Association, writes Sophie Gallagher.

Sport

 The shocking Man Utd stat that should set alarm bells ringing for Jim Ratclife. The Glazers may have assembled the most disappointing squad in history given their expenditure – and that will be no easy fix.

Something to brighten your day

 I followed my parents’ 7 rules for happiness – now I sleep better and smile more. At 43, Rachel Tompkins took her parents’ advice for contentment – including mowing the lawn, reading and not Googling everything.