Survival of Icelandic town ‘far from assured’ with volcanic eruption expected, scientists say

A volcanic eruption is likely to hit an Icelandic town close to the famous Blue Lagoon spa, scientists have warned, as thousands of people are evacuated from the area and the resort shut down.

Numerous deep cracks and sinkholes have appeared on roads in the south-western fishing town of Grindavik, which lies above the path of a “magma tunnel”, or dyke, about 9.3 miles long.

The dyke stretches from the north, down to Grindavik and into the sea, and the magma is believed to be about one to three miles underground. Scientists have said the magma was at a depth of 800m from the surface at its shallowest point.

The Icelandic Met Office recorded thousands of earthquakes in the region near the Fagradalsfjall volcano in recent days, saying the likelihood of an eruption “high” and could be possible “on a timescale of just days”.

Scientists say it is impossible to determine when or where an eruption might start, but Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, warned it is most likely to occur on land.

He said Grindavik is “very close” to the magma tunnel, adding: “Its survival is far from assured.

“Everything depends upon where magma eventually reaches the surface, but the situation doesn’t look good for the residents of the town.”

David Pyle, volcanologist and professor of earth sciences at the University of Oxford, said an eruption may start at the southern end of the dyke, which extends offshore and under the sea.

“If there is a ‘submarine’ [undersea] eruption, this could generate ash clouds, and may release noxious gases from the boiling of sea water,” he said.

It is unlikely to have effects as widespread as those of the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption, Professor Pyle added, when huge ash clouds caused widespread disruption to air travel between Europe and North America, costing airlines an estimated $3bn (£2.4bn) as they cancelled more than 100,000 flights.

“But even a small submarine eruption would be challenging for the authorities to manage, due to the possibility of small-scale explosions, and local ash fallout,” Professor Pyle added.

The seismic activity began on 25 October when an intense earthquake began near Svartsengi, north of Grindavik on the Reykjanes Peninsula.

It has led to the evacuation of Grindavik, home to about 3,000 people. The Blue Lagoon geothermal spa, about three miles from the town, has also closed as a precaution.

Gunn­ar Stefan Bjarna­son, a resident of Grindavik, was leaving the town in his car with his wife on Friday when a crack suddenly formed in the road causing his vehicle to jump.

“We had been feeling the earthquakes in the car on the way,” he told the Iceland Monitor news website. “Then suddenly there’s a crack right before us.

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“We got very scared and the car just jumps. It was like driving on a ramp.”

Residents were able to briefly return to their homes on Monday to collect their belongings, with each household being given just five minutes to do so.

Dave McGarvie, volcanologist and honorary researcher at the University of Lancaster, said the last evacuation of entire populations in Iceland occurred 50 years ago during the 1973 eruption on the southern island of Heimaey.

“The displaced people of Grindavik will be understandably anxious because there is considerable uncertainty over the future of their town,” he said. “Until the current unrest reveals its final outcome(s) this uncertainty will prevail.”

A major geothermal power plant which provides electricity and hot water for thousands of people across the Reykjanes Peninsula also lies above the magma tunnel, causing considerable concern over risks ahead of the winter season.

Icelandic officials said on Tuesday they were planning to build defence walls around the plant to protect it from lava flows.

A spokesperson for HS Orka, the operator of the power plant, told Reuters that it supplies power to the entire country although a disruption would not impact power supply to the capital Reykjavik.