Inside the mind of an American shooter
The 90s study found that these incidents, “almost without exception, are not sudden, impulsive acts. Assassination is the end result of understandable, and discernible, process of thinking and behaviour.”
So instead of trying to pinpoint which types of people are most likely to become assassins, researchers focus on potential red flags that can be spotted during a three-stage “pathway to violence”.
“They are usually multi-problemed individuals. There’s typically lots of failures in social, familial, occupational areas,” says Meloy. “If everyday life is very difficult and angst-ridden for them, they will withdraw into a new dark identity and may fantasise about becoming an assassin or becoming a shooter or a mass attacker… It can be fuelled on the internet, because there’s lots of material for them to learn all about this: they study previous attackers, weapons and tactics online.”
This “skill-building” process often feels fulfilling, says Meloy. “The paradox that’s very difficult for other people to grasp is that the person starts to feel better emotionally.
“It may start out as just a vague, chaotic revenge fantasy. But over what can be several years, that incubates and begins to crystallise and they start to think about actually doing it.”
Describing the second step, he says: “This feeling of being victimised by other people becomes a self identity of being a soldier or a warrior… It could be from a personal grievance or attached to an ideology, like becoming a jihadist.” This is when they are likely to hint at their thoughts, or just say them outright, on social media.
It’s reported that Crooks had written on a gaming platform that 13 July, the day of his attack, “will be my premiere, watch as it unfolds”.
Next, Meloy says, the planning becomes more specific, “like the purchase of a weapon, going to a shooting range, and thinking: what other paraphernalia am I going to bring to the crime? How am I going to obtain it? What’s my what’s my access point? How can I get there? What’s the level of security?”
This fits with Crooks. After Trump’s rally was announced, he scoped out the location prior to the day of his attack, sources have told CNN.
The third stage is “a time-action imperative: I must act, and I must act now”, says Meloy. This might be triggered by sensing an opportunity – like a presidential nominee giving a rally at a nearby fairground, perhaps.
Meloy says that most assassins attack in their local area rather than travelling hundreds of miles. He is wary of speculating on Crooks but says: “Maybe he considered the mandated time and the place: Saturday morning, an hour from my home. That could contribute to this last-resort stage.”
He adds: “I’m very interested to see if this young man appeared in any of the databases of a person of concern, and whether there was any prior contact by local or federal law enforcement with this young man. Typically that kind of data doesn’t come out until later in the investigation. But if it’s there, it will surface.”
