Iran and Israel ‘closer to war than ever’ as US predicts missile blitz in hours
Israel and Iran are closer to full-scale war than at any time in decades of conflict, according to security experts on both sides, as US officials warned that an Iranian missile attack on Israel could happen within hours.
Iranâs foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, reiterated plans to strike Israel despite last-ditch efforts to avert conflict by western diplomats, including a call from his counterpart Lord David Cameron on Thursday night warning that Iran must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict.
Mr Amirabdollahian said that this would be âlegitimate defence with the aim of punishing the aggressorâ for the bombing of Iranâs consulate in Damascus, Syria, on 1 April.
Iranâs Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameni, said earlier this week that Israel would be âpunishedâ for the bombing, for which Israeli officials have privately acknowledged responsibility.
Javad Karimi-Ghodousi, a member of the Iranian parliamentâs national security and foreign policy commission, warned on Friday: âAfter punishing the Zionist regime in the coming hours, this villain will understand that henceforth, wherever in the world it attempts to assassinate figures of the resistance front, it will again be punished with Iranian Sajil, Khyber-destroyer, and Shahab missiles.â
Israelâs Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with defence minister Yoav Gallant and other senior cabinet members on Friday to discuss preparations for an attack, with the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) on high alert. The countryâs ministers have warned that any attack on Israel would result in strikes against Iran, which security experts believe could include capital Tehran.
The head of US Central Command, General Michael âErikâ Kurilla, is in Israel to coordinate a potential response, with President Joe Biden promising âironcladâ support. US officials said this week that Washington could join an Israeli attack on Iran, and Republican Senator Tom Cotton called for a âswift and devastatingâ joint retaliation.
US officials told reporters that an attack could take place as soon as Friday, and could involve the use of dozens of drones and missiles.
India, Russia, France issued warnings to citizens not to travel to Israel or neighbouring countries. The US told embassy staff in Israel to avoid travel outside of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Beersheba. German airline Lufthansa has suspended flights to Tehran.
The UK Foreign Office updated travel advice to reflect the threat from Iran, and reiterated a warning to British citizens not to travel to Israel.
Israeli media reported piecemeal efforts to prepare the civilian population for war. Yona Yahav, mayor of northern port city Haifa, instructed residents to stockpile food and medicine, while health insurance companies offered guidance to people with health conditions.
Washington is pressing Tehran through Middle East mediators to show restraint and mitigate escalation risks, including through regional allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while foreign ministers in Germany and Australia also underlined the message in calls to Mr Amirabdollahian.
Iran has told the US that it will respond to the consulate attack âin a way that aims to avoid major escalationâ, Reuters reported. Iranian officials and media hinted at a strike on the Golan Heights, which is occupied by Israel but internationally recognised as Syrian territory.
Iran also conveyed a message to Washington that American forces in the region would be attacked if the US participated in Israeli retaliation, according to US officials quoted by Axios.
âThe Iranian message was we will attack the forces that attack us, so donât f**k with us and we wonât f**k with you,â one of the officials said.
Even a limited Iranian strike is likely to draw a strong Israeli response that could lead to war, said Dr Raz Zimmt, a security analyst specialising in the Iran-Israel conflict at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
âI think we have reached the most dangerous phase of Israel-Iranian confrontation ever, and that is because it is going to be very difficult to de-escalate once Iran decides to attack,â he said.
âIran might assess that an attack on Israeli military targets in remote areas such as the Golan Heights or the South without casualties might allow Israel to contain the retaliation⌠Iâm not sure Israel could because this would be the first time Iran carries out an attack in Israel,â Dr Zimmt added, predicting this would draw âan Israeli response with targets inside Iranâ.
Targets would depend on the nature of the attack but a first wave could focus on air defences and drone production facilities, the analyst suggested. Israel is unlikely to strike Iranâs nuclear sites but has contingency plans to do so, he added.
Yaakov Amidror, a former IDF general and Netanyahu national security adviser, said Israel had sought to reset the rules of engagement with Iran through the Damascus bombing by holding Iran responsible for attacks on Israel by its allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
âNow they have a very tough decision,â he told i. âIf their retaliation is too strong, that might bring them to a situation they want to avoid with a war in which Tehran might be a target.â
The Iranian regime is unlikely to be deterred by threats as it feels an imperative to restore deterrence after the Damascus bombing, according to Dr Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran foreign policy specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
âThe risk of further escalation is still preferable to a scenario where after a few months or a year, Israel would feel emboldened to target military or nuclear infrastructure within Iran, which would absolutely result in a war,â he said.
âIn Tehran they are thinking there might be a war in a few weeks if they respond, or there will definitely be a war in a year if they donât respond.â
Diplomacy could yet prove effective, Dr Azizi said, suggesting that Iran is likely to be negotiating over red lines with foreign powers to try to arrive at a response that is more than symbolic without sparking a war.
Foreign diplomats are likely to be pressing Iran not to jeopardise efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire, he added, which would allow Tehran to safeguard âwhat they see as their achievements as a result of the warâ, which has left Israel under mounting international pressure and still unable to destroy Hamas.
But Dr Azizi added that the chances of de-escalation are growing slim.
Asked if this is the closest Israel and Iran have come to war, he said âabsolutelyâ.