Why Kemi Badenoch’s new immigration policy is unlikely to work

On the face of it, Kemi Badenoch’s first major policy announcement as Leader of the Opposition – to ban immigrants who have ever claimed a benefit from being able to remain in the UK – seems like it could be a significant intervention.

But the reality is that, at this stage, it appears to be little more than rhetoric. Or, at the very least, a gesture designed to show voters the party is trying to wipe clean its poor record on bringing down immigration.

The announcement seems to have been briefed only to the right-wing papers on Thursday and with little in the way of actual practical detail.

The implication is that it is more of an attempt to grab attention from rival party Reform rather than a serious policy proposal.

There are also several gaps in the plans and how they might work.

The policy

Badenoch has said immigrants living and working in the UK should have to wait 10 years, rather than the current five years, before claiming Indefinite Leave to Remain, which gives them the right to live and work in the UK without becoming British citizens.

She said people should then have to stay a further five years – totalling 15 – before then being eligible to apply to become a citizen.

Anyone who has claimed benefits, lived in social housing or who has a criminal record should not be able to apply to remain in the UK, she said.

The same restriction would apply to anyone with a criminal record.

The policy also suggests that someone applying to stay permanently in the UK would have to show they are from a household that is a “net contributor” – proving they have generated more for the economy than they cost.

Gaps in the plan

It remains unclear how this policy change would impact migration numbers.

Badenoch has refused to put a figure on how many fewer people would be eligible to remain in the UK and how many would be deported.

The understanding is that the changes would bar many low-wage migrant workers – including those on minimum wage – which could leave the UK struggling to fill roles in industries like hospitality, construction and healthcare.

This is one of the migration challenges the Tories struggled to grapple with when in office.

Restricting the movement of migrants can have adverse impacts on the workforce and crucial industries which means specific visa routes end up being opened – negating efforts to lower migration.

In her announcement, Badenoch also said that someone’s “net contribution” to the country would be considered as part of any citizenship application.

Essentially this means that someone would have to prove they had put in more to the economy – through taxes and working contributions – than they had cost the country.

But there are no details as to how this would be calculated and by who – and whether someone’s use of public services such as schooling or the NHS would count against them.

The administrative costs and resources alone needed to carry out these kinds of checks make them seem unrealistic, at best.

Would this also apply to someone who would go on to claim a state pension? And would it bar higher earnings from being able to receive child benefits?

Going over old ground

While the policy – if it were ever to be implemented – might have an impact on some areas of migration, many of the restrictions Badenoch is talking about exist in some form.

Her policy idea could, therefore, have little impact in reducing migration numbers, seeing as net migration has been vastly increasing in recent years with the current status quo in place.

Most work visas already come with a “no recourse to public funds” condition which prevents immigrants relying on those visas from claiming benefits or using social housing.

The same applies to those who are in the UK without a formal immigration status – so anyone who is here unofficially already cannot claim state support or access public services in the same way.

And it is often already the case that a criminal record will delay or prevent someone from receiving the right to remain in the UK.

There is, however, an argument that implementing a sweeping ban on migrants claiming any state support may act as a deterrent to people who are considering moving to the UK.

Reach to Reform voters?

Badenoch, who took over as leader in autumn last year, said repeatedly she would not be rushing into policy announcements and would take her time in the years leading up to the next election to consult party members and MPs before outlining detailed proposals.

So, is this sudden announcement – lacking in any real depth – a sign she is starting to panic about the rise of her right-wing rivals?

It coincidentally comes shortly after Reform UK came top of a significant YouGov poll of voter intentions.

The party has been hammering the Tories over the record rise in migration under their watch, in the years after the UK left the EU.

Leader, Nigel Farage, has called for very strict immigration policies – which would ban any but essential migrants from being able to come to the UK.

Badenoch herself has been forced to concede that mistakes were made and promises to bring down net migration were broken.