Labour records first Westminster polling lead in Scotland since 2014 as Yes voters turn away from SNP
Labour has recorded its first Westminster poll lead in Scotland for almost a decade, with SNP voters still turning away from the party more than six months after Humza Yousaf replaced Nicola Sturgeon as leader.
The Scottish opinion monitor, conducted by YouGov on behalf of the Scottish Election Study, polled 1,244 voters north of the border in late October.
It found that when undecided voters were removed, 38 per cent said they intended to back Labour at the next general election, compared to 32 per cent choosing the SNP.
The finding marks the first time that Labour have enjoyed a Westminster poll lead in Scotland since 2014, before the party was almost wiped out in the election the following year.
The poll also provided further evidence that the connection between support for Scottish independence and the SNP is weakening.
Only 53 per cent of those who said they supported indyref2 also backed the SNP, a significant decline from previous elections when this figure regularly exceeded 80 per cent.
The poll also showed that nearly 20 per cent of those who voted Yes in the 2014 referendum intend to back Labour in the general election, which is expected to take place next year.
By comparison, only 55 per cent of those who voted SNP at the last general election in 2019 said they would back the party again next time.
Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, 48 per cent said they would do so again, while 18 per cent are likely to vote Labour.
The SNP still holds the edge over Labour when it comes to the Holyrood election in 2026, enjoying 35 per cent support compared to 32 per cent with undecided voters removed.
The poll also showed that Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is marginally the most popular among Scots with a mean rating of 4.3, higher than Mr Yousaf’s 4.0.
Scottish Election Study researcher Fraser McMillan said: “The data reinforces the impression we’ve been getting for most of this year that Scottish voters are ready to punish the SNP and the Conservatives, with both parties having spent a long time in power at Holyrood and Westminster respectively.
“Labour are currently attracting voters from all the other major parties, and picking up around 20 per cent of Yes supporters in Westminster vote intention.
“The SNP’s dominance over the last decade has been built on monopolising pro-indy Scots, but they’re finally seeing some of that support drift away.”
Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie said the poll’s findings showed that “the people of Scotland are sick and tired with SNP and Tory failure”.
David Linden, the SNP’s social justice spokesman at Westminster, said: “The SNP are working hard to tackle the rising cost of living, improve public services like our NHS and build a fairer economy, which is why the SNP Scottish Government is freezing council tax.
“This is in stark contrast to both the main Westminster parties – Labour and the Tories – who offer a Brexit-based future dragging down living standards, ignoring Scotland, and threatening cash available for public services like the NHS.”
