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Labour poll ratings are worst since Corbyn era

If replicated at a general election, the BMG poll results would shake up British politics and lead to chaos in the House of Commons

Labour, the Conservatives and Reform are locked in a three-way tie amid an ongoing slump in the popularity of the Government.

The ruling party and the Tories are both on 25 per cent support among voters with Reform UK only just trailing them with 24 per cent, according to a poll by BMG Research for The i Paper.

The results suggest that Reform remains on course to shake up British politics – if they are replicated at the next general election likely to come in 2029.

Labour’s score of 25 per cent is the lowest recorded by BMG since August 2019, when the party was being run by Jeremy Corbyn.

Kemi Badenoch has so far failed to grow the Conservatives’ support significantly, attracting only slightly more voters than at the election in July last year.

Meanwhile Reform UK has hit a new record high – ushering in a potential new age for the country’s political landscape if Nigel Farage’s party can hold on to its current level of support.

The Liberal Democrats are backed by 14 per cent of voters with the Greens on 8 per cent, both roughly in line with the last election result.

If the BMG results were reflected in a general election they would produce a chaotic House of Commons in which no political party was close to a majority, potentially leading to a coalition with two or more members.

Only 25 per cent of voters say they are satisfied with Sir Keir Starmer’s performance as Prime Minister, with a record 50 per cent disapproving. Kemi Badenoch’s approval ratings are balanced with 23 per cent on each side, while Nigel Farage’s are slightly negative and Sir Ed Davey’s slightly positive.

Robert Struthers of BMG said: “Our voting intention numbers signal a new era in British politics, with a genuine three-horse race emerging. Reform UK has recorded its highest-ever poll numbers and is now effectively neck and neck with the two established parties of government.

“The last time British politics saw three parties polling this closely was in 2010, shortly before the election, when the Liberal Democrats’ vote share surged to rival that of the Conservatives and Labour. Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats failed to convert strong polling numbers into seats despite securing 24 per cent of the vote. First-past-the-post poses similar challenges for Reform UK. Still, this parliament offers a unique opportunity for Reform to disrupt the established two-party system.”

He warned that Badenoch was “not benefiting from any honeymoon period in her early months as Leader of the Opposition” and is “an unknown quantity to many”, three months after she took over as Conservative leader.

Farage and his Reform colleagues have expressed growing confidence about their ability to make major gains in local elections this year and next year’s polls for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments.

But Labour and the Tories have argued that the right-wing populists are not putting forward serious policy proposals for the future of the country.

BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,514 GB adults online between 28-29 January 2025. BMG Research is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.



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