The local Tories looking for a way back

The omens are not good. National polls have you in third place behind insurgents who want to destroy your party and are encouraging your fellow activists to defect.

Your own leader has warned that next week’s local elections will be “extremely difficult” and that your party could lose control of “almost every single one” of the town halls it won in 2021. Meanwhile, detailed research suggests its vote in these areas will be almost halved.

Despite all this most local Conservative activists The i Paper has interviewed about their party’s chances in the 1 May elections – 23 council contests, six mayoral votes and a Parliamentary by-election – are determinedly upbeat about their prospects.

Grassroots Tories say that although they do fear losing some “protest” votes to Reform UK, the results may not be as dire as is widely expected.

‘A deep loathing of Keir Starmer’

“Things feel completely different to the general election. People’s hatred of the Tories has massively subsided – though not gone entirely – and there is a deep loathing of Keir Starmer,” says a Conservative activist in the north of England.

“Council tax going up has been toxic, as has immigration. About 80 per cent of Reform voters I have spoken to say they will vote Tory again next time.”

The local elections will certainly be a test of whether that sense of the electorate’s mood is accurate.

After securing more than 4 million votes and five MPs in the general election in 2024, Reform is aiming to build on that next week when it is standing 1,638 candidates in 99.8 per cent of council wards across England where elections are being held.

But Conservatives are hoping that the prospect of Nigel Farage’s party running local services will make voters think twice about backing it next month.

‘If you want chaos, vote Reform’

“If you want chaos, vote Reform,” says Eddie Strengiel, a veteran Tory county councillor in Lincolnshire – one of the authorities up for grabs. He believes this is the “strong message” that will allow his party to maintain control of the council and quell fresh questions over the future of Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.

Challenger right-wing parties have done well in Lincolnshire before – Ukip won 16 seats and ensured the Conservatives lost overall control of the county council in 2013.

And now one of Reform’s star recruits Andrea Jenkyns is standing to be the first Mayor of the new Greater Lincolnshire combined authority.

The party’s deputy leader Richard Tice claims: “The Conservatives have made themselves irrelevant – especially here in Lincolnshire, where they’ve driven the council into £425m of debt. Voters are smart enough not to elect that level of incompetence again.”

But Strengiel is also trying to use recent history to his party’s advantage. “If people want to make a protest vote – look what happened in 2013, Ukip took quite a few seats and it turned out to be a shambles,” he says “The same goes for Reform.

Tory morale ‘is very good’

“We’ve done a good job, we’ve looked after children’s service, education, roads, we’ve got a good record of delivering for Lincoln.

“Morale is very good, conversations have been good on the doorstep.”

The unpopularity of the Government among some voters is another key reason Tories give for their startling positivity.

Conservatives who have been out canvassing voters say they are hearing widespread anger over Labour policies such as cutting the winter fuel allowance, changes to inheritance tax for farmers, and immigration.

In some places they say controversial changes to local government that are being proposed by Labour have also helped to re-energise activists who were feeling despondent after last year’s election defeat.

In Leicester, for example, the Labour mayor Sir Peter Soulsby has proposed a major expansion of the city’s boundaries in order to comply with the Government’s preference for authorities to cover a population of at least 500,000 people.

‘Locally Reform are invisible’

“That has really focused people’s attention,” Kevin Feltham, a Conservative campaigner in next door Leicestershire – another county going to the polls next week – tells The i Paper.

“More than 6,000 people have signed a petition [against the proposal] and Reform haven’t picked it up.

“Locally [Reform] are invisible, so far I’ve seen nothing. I think we will do ok.”

Graham Howe, chairman of the Conservative association in Wokingham – a seat lost to the Liberal Democrats in the general election – thinks his party’s natural supporters are coming back to the fold because of the changes made under Badenoch.

Howe argues that under Rishi Sunak the Tories “ceased being Tories”, leaving voters unable to differentiate between his party and Labour.

“My [general] election experience was that Tories were not turning up to vote,” he says. “We had the same number of Lib Dems and the same number of Labour voters, but a deterioration of the Tory vote – that’s why they won.”

‘Ashamed Tories are coming back out of the closet’

“Things have turned enormously, locally speaking,” Howe adds when asked about morale. “There are Tories who were ashamed to be Tories who are now coming back out of the closet again, as it were… From the doorstep there are more and more people who are willing to take a look at the Tories again.”

He also has confidence in his embattled national leader: “She is spending a lot of time out canvassing and has been around the patch. You never saw Sunak doing that.

“Look at Margaret [Thatcher]. She took her time to get her team together, and I hear Kemi is revamping headquarters and sorting out her team as well.”

In Howe’s patch, and other prosperous areas in the south east, the Lib Dems are the Tories’ main challengers. But Reform is a clear threat elsewhere.

Farage promises to fix ‘broken’ council

In Derbyshire one poll has suggested that Farage’s party could take overall control of the council next week. He has been campaigning in the county, declaring that “Derbyshire County Council is broken and Reform will fix it.”

But the Conservatives, who have held control of the authority since 2017, believe they still have a chance of hanging on.

They hope to generate opposition to Labour, which currently holds 16 seats, through the proposal of its High Peak MP Jon Pearce that the area move out of Derbyshire and into Greater Manchester.

“Derbyshire is historically a marginal area so it’s always difficult to tell,” says Tory councillor Charlotte Cupit.

“But on the doorstep it feels really positive. The one thing that is absolutely clear is frustration with national government.

“Local government reform – bringing High Peak into Greater Manchester is unbelievably unpopular. Conservatives want to keep Derbyshire together.

“There’s been good support, good camaraderie. Kemi has been up here a few times, I’m sure she will come again. She’s been very supportive.”

Disappointing Badenoch ‘far too cautious’

But not all the Conservatives The i Paper spoke to were so positive. David Britton, who represents Littlehampton on West Sussex County Council – one of the areas where elections have been postponed due to reorganisation – admits to being “a bit disappointed” by Badenoch, who he says has been “far too cautious”.

“Because of Reform, there is not a lot of optimism,” he adds. “We have lost a lot of members and friends to Reform… it is a big part of the conversation [among Tory members].”

“I did not expect Starmer to be almost as unpopular as the Opposition at this point. And yet, I don’t think that has helped us. That is proof people are fed up with the two big parties in equal measure. That is why Reform will do well.”

He says this threat means local Tory morale is “not great”. And while he thinks a pre-election pact with Farage’s party “could be quite damaging to both parties”; after the votes he thinks it could “make sense”, depending on the arithmetic.

Local Conservative Reform coalitions?

Badenoch has ruled out any national Tory Reform pact but has suggested that Conservatives could agree to enter local coalitions with their rival party after next week’s elections, saying that local leaders local leaders had “to do what is right for the people in their local area”.

However, the idea has been rejected by Farage. And Tory campaigners on the ground that The i Paper has spoken to from areas including Derbyshire, Hull and East Yorkshire, Durham and Leicestershire were also keen to distance themselves from it.

“We’ve had district councillors defect to Reform – but there’s no pact,” says Lincolnshire Conservative county councillor Eddie Strengiel. “People are getting disaffected with Reform as well. I will not change, I’m disappointed when people switch allegiances.”

The Tory task is even greater in the North East, where not a single Conservative MP remains following last year’s general election wipeout and the party is fighting to maintain its leadership of County Durham Council where it faces challenges from independents as well as Lib Dems, Labour and Reform.

Andrew Hixon, a long-time Conservative campaigner in Teesside, has sent a team of activists to Durham and admits things could be difficult.

“There’s some [voters] who say they will vote Reform, it’s mainly the old Labour areas, the old mining towns,” he says. “I think Conservatives have a very good chance in Hull and East Yorkshire [where a mayoral contest is being held], if we are going to see Reform do well it will probably be in place like Durham.”

‘Many voters don’t trust Farage’

But there is some Tory optimism, even here. Hixon says he has picked up on “infighting” among Reform activists and believes there are still many voters who “don’t trust” Farage.

“But I think Labour and Reform are having the same problem we had when there’s a massive swing one way or another,” he says.

“We’ve had people apologise to us for voting Labour. They’ve said they didn’t realise they were going to be lied to and let down so badly… We’ve had some really positive discussions from all sorts of people. The electorate have got time for us.”

Tice, responding for Reform, said: “By now, most people understand that a vote for the Conservatives is a wasted vote. They’ve had 14 years to deliver meaningful change – and failed on every front.

“In just eight years, they’ve cycled through six leaders, becoming the party of infighting rather than leadership. Reform is the only party that can beat Labour.”

A Conservative Party spokesperson said: “We know these local elections will be incredibly challenging for the Conservative Party. Two-thirds of the seats up for election are already Conservative-held, and they come after the historic result at the general election.

“But our brilliant councillors and activists will be fighting for every vote – because we know that Conservative councils keep council tax lower, deliver better services, and provide real value for money.”

Labour was contacted for comment.