Number of long-term sick blows £3bn black hole in Hunt’s budget
The number of workers on long-term sickness has blown a £3bn black hole in Jeremy Hunt’s budget, according to research commissioned by the Liberal Democrats.
According to the Office of Budget Responsibility each person out of work due to long-term illness costs an average of £5,200 in lost tax revenue.
The House of Commons Library analysis looks at the cost of the record numbers of people who are economically inactive due to long-term sickness.
The latest figures show a record 2.8 million people were out of work due to ill health in October to December 2023, up around 625,000 compared to the start of this Parliament in 2019. This means the rise in long-term sickness under this Government has led to a loss of around £3bn in lost tax revenue in 2023-24, the Lib Dems said.
The waiting list for routine NHS treatment in England has grown almost 400,000 to 7.6 million since Rishi Sunak pledged to cut them last year. The Prime Minister since acknowledged that he has failed to keep his promise.
During a recent interview with BBC Radio York, Mr Sunak said: “Are we where we want to be? Not yet.
“Are we making progress? Yes, the plan is working. If we stick with it, I know things will get better.”
The Lib Dems are calling on the Chancellor to cancel what they say are a planned £1.3bn of real-terms cuts to NHS spending in 2024-25, adding that it was “disastrously short-sighted” to be slashing health funding when so many people are on long-term sick leave.
In order to help ease some pressure on the health service and speed up test results, Mr Hunt has announced £800m package of technology reforms which will be included in the Budget on Wednesday.
Although some of the fund will also go towards policing, artificial intelligence (AI) will be deployed to cut scan times by a third.
The department said the changes, due to be in the Budget, have the potential to deliver £1.8bn worth of benefits to public sector productivity by 2029.
Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Sarah Olney said: “Rishi Sunak’s failure to cut NHS waiting lists is damaging the economy and blowing a hole in the public finances. Millions of people are struggling to see a GP or waiting months in pain for hospital treatment, with record numbers on long-term sick leave.
“This chronic neglect of our health services by successive Conservative ministers is creating a sick economy and preventing our great country from reaching its full potential.
“Jeremy Hunt needs to put health at the heart of the Budget and cancel his disastrously short-sighted cuts to NHS spending. We cannot get the economy firing on all cylinders again without fixing the health crisis, tackling the NHS backlog and helping people back to work.”
The Government was approached for comment.
Meanwhile, Mr Hunt’s new Godalming and Ash seat, a brick in the “Blue Wall”, is now under attack from the Lib Dems, a recent poll found.
The Lib Dems are currently on 35 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives on 29 per cent and Labour on 22 per cent, the Survation poll commissioned by the campaign group 38 Degrees found. It suggests Mr Hunt is on course to be the first serving Chancellor in modern times to lose his seat in the Commons.
The findings also suggest that his own constituents prioritise the woes of the NHS above all else. Asked to identify the issues determining their election vote, “health and the NHS” came top, followed by the cost of living and the economy generally. Only 4 per cent said tax was a key election issue.
Among his local voters, some 59 per cent said close friends or family had experienced difficulty in booking a GP appointment and almost half had struggled to book an appointment themselves.
