You’re more likely to live to 100 than ever

The population of England and Wales aged 100 and over has reached a new high, after doubling in size in the past two decades.

There were an estimated 15,330 centenarians alive last year, up 4 per cent from 14,800 in 2023, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The figure has jumped just over 100 per cent in 20 years, having stood at 7,630 in 2004. It is also up by more than a third (38 per cent) in the past five years.

The rapid growth is, in part, a legacy of the spike in babies born in the years immediately after the end of the First World War in 1918, which led to a sharp rise in the number of people turning 100 in 2020 and 2021.

However, scientists believe a combination of different factors has played a much larger role.

Advances in preventing ill-health

Amitava Banerjee, Professor of clinical data science and honorary consultant cardiologist at UCL, told The i Paper: “The real interest should be in increased survival, rather than increased births. There’s no question we have made major advances in preventable cause of mortality, such as heart attacks or strokes, infectious diseases like TB, COPD, and so on.

“We’ve got better at reducing risk factors and we’ve got better at treatment and rehabilitation. So I do think looking at the fertility rate after the war is a bit of a red herring.”

Kerry Gadsdon of the ONS said: “Despite a steady decline in numbers of births after the post-World War One peak, the number of centenarians has continued to grow. This is largely because of past improvements in mortality, going back many decades, with more people surviving to older ages.

“These improvements are because of factors such as advances in medical treatments and improvements in living standards and public health.”

Professor Banerjee said it is important to ask what quality of life extremely old people have.

“Survival does not equal quality of life,” he said. “Yes we have 15,000+ centenarians, but how many are physically or economically dependent? How many can do the activities of daily living, such as cooking or washing for themselves? I think we have to look at their quality of life and be careful how we measure societal success.”

Closing the gender health gap

There continues to be a large gap between females and males among centenarians in England and Wales, the ONS data shows.

Some 12,500 women were estimated to be 100 or over last year, compared with 2,830 men – the equivalent of 4.4 females for every one male. However the gap has decreased over time and is now at its narrowest since comparable data began in 2002.

A decade ago in 2014, there were 5.7 female centenarians for every one male, while two decades ago in 2004 the figure was 8.1. The gap has narrowed due to a growing number of men living to a very old age.

“The men and women difference is really interesting,” said Professor Banerjee. “I’m not sure scientifically we know everything by a long stretch. When I was at medical school in the mid-1990s, women were less likely to be seen for their chest pain and we were taught that heart attacks and strokes were more male. That’s probably due to direct or indirect discrimination within the system, rather than because of anything biological.

“Women, traditionally in most epidemiological studies, have lived longer and they have had lower rates of cardiovascular disease. With reductions in risk factors, such as smoking rates plummeting, and improvements in treating high blood pressure, that gender inequality seems to have got better.”

Changing lifestyles

Professor Banerjee believes changing habits through the generations, including a major fall in the number of people smoking, is perhaps the most important factor behind the growing number of centenarians – especially among men.

The proportion of adults who smoke has fallen from 25.3 per cent of the population in 2006 to 16.5 per cent in 2024. Smoking prevalence is believed to have peaked in the UK in the mid-1970s, with almost half of adults smoking.

Professor Banerjee said: “In my research, family history and genetics are part of it. The environment a family lives in over their life course is, for most people, much more important.

“If I’m in a family where I see poor diet, smoking, less physical activity, then it’s harder for me to change those things earlier and later in life.

“I think that will bear out in the differences in men and women: historically women were much less likely to smoke than men, rather than any big genetic difference.”

The British Heart Foundation warns smoking seriously increases the risk of heart attacks, strokes and cancer.

June Davison, senior cardiac nurse at the British Heart Foundation, said: “If you’re a smoker then stopping is going to give you your best chance of living longer, as it is the single biggest risk factor for dying before reaching your 75th birthday in the UK.”

Will the upward trend continue?

There were 532,640 people in England last year aged 90 or over, of whom 14,510 were centenarians – both the highest numbers since records began. Some 30,970 people in Wales were 90 or older, of whom 830 were centenarians – again, a record high. Scotland recorded more than 1,000 centenarians for the first time in 2023.

Although there has been a decline in the birth rate in recent years – down to 1.56 – it will not necessarily result in fewer centenarians, with boys born in the UK in 2023 expected to live on average to the age of 86.7, and girls to 90.

Professor Banerjee said: “I think the bigger change has been over the last 50 years is that life expectancy has simply gone up. I’ve been a consultant cardiologist for 11 years. When I was a registrar in Birmingham there were only a few case reports of nonagenarians having stents put in. Now it’s not uncommon at all to do cardiac surgery and procedures in 80 and 90-year-olds.”

Davison added: “Maintaining a healthy weight, reducing salt and alcohol, eating a healthy diet with plenty of fruit and vegetables and being physically active can all help reduce people’s chances of dying early.

“Adopting healthy lifestyle choices as early as possible will increase people’s chances of having a healthier heart for longer. Living until the age of 100 is still rare. Genetics play a part, but all of us can benefit from eating a Mediterranean-style diet and aiming for at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity exercise per week.”