Net UK migration has increased, but not for the reasons you might think

Net migration to the UK has increased from last year, predominantly driven by people arriving to work and study.

But the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested the rate of immigration may actually be slowing down.

It also said the number of people coming to the UK fleeing war and persecution has dropped.

Here’s what you need to know about the statistics:

How many people are coming to the UK?

Year ending December 2022: 745,000

After the ONS received more Home Office and travel data, it has increased the number of people it thinks immigrated to the UK in the 12 months up to December 2022 and reduced the number who left.

The ONS now estimates net migration – the number of people arriving versus those leaving – during the period was 745,000.

This is 139,000 higher than initially estimated, making it a new record.

Year ending June 2023: 672,000

Net migration to the UK in the 12 months to June 2023 was lower at 672,000. However, it is a rise on the 607,000 figure recorded in June 2022.

Taking this into account, the ONS suggests that immigration to the UK may actually be slowing down.

“While it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, these more recent estimates indicate a slowing of immigration coupled with increasing emigration.”

Who is coming to the UK?

Non-EU nationals made up the largest group of people coming to the UK in the year ending June 2023, at 82 per cent of total immigration (or 968,000 people).

By contrast, EU nationals made up just 11 per cent of total migration (129,000 people).

The final 7 per cent (84,000 people) were returning British nationals.

This is a relatively recent trend.

Before 2019, EU nationals were the biggest group of immigrants to the UK. But by 2021, the majority of immigration was from non-EU nationals.

To put it in context, back in June 2016, EU nationals made up 63 per cent of immigrations, and today, that figure has dropped to 11 per cent.

Why are people coming to the UK?

Those entering the UK are predominantly coming to work and study. The number coming for humanitarian reasons has actually dropped this year.

The increase in the number of non-EU citizens immigrating to the UK was driven by people coming to work (up to 33 per cent from 23 per cent on last year) mainly in the NHS and social care sector. This means they will be paying taxes in the UK.

The rise is not being driven by those seeking asylum or fleeing war. The ONS said that the number of people arriving on humanitarian routes decreased from 19 per cent to 9 per cent this year from 2022.

Fewer people are now arriving from Hong Kong and Ukraine.

In the year ending June 2023, 90,000 were counted as immigrating for asylum in the UK – an increase of 75,000 on the previous year.

Ninety per cent of people who arrive on small boats seek asylum in the UK, but nearly two thirds of all people who apply for asylum in the UK do not come on small boats, according to the Home Office.

But the main reason that non-EU migrants come to the UK is still to go to university, and the levels of this have not changed much since last year. In total, 39 per cent of all non-EU immigration was for study.

Most people who come to the UK for university leave within five years – after they finish their degree – but new analysis suggests that more international students are staying for longer and working in the UK after their degrees.

The number of family members that international students are bringing with them has also increased.

In 2019, dependents accounted for 6 per cent of non-EU student immigration and 37 per cent of non-EU work immigration. This year, that has risen to 25 per cent and 48 per cent respectively.

How many people left the UK?

Provisional figures show that the number of people leaving the UK was 508,000 in the 12 months to June 2023, a rise of 37,000 on the previous year.

This rise is mainly because of the number of non-EU nationals leaving after studying in the UK.

Around 42 per cent of these were EU nationals, 39 per cent of these people were non-EU nationals and 18 per cent were British nationals.

How has immigration changed in recent years?

The ONS said there had been a “marked change in immigration” since 2021, largely due to Covid and Brexit.

That was the year that free movement ended for EU nationals post-Brexit and travel restrictions were eased after the Covid pandemic. The war in Ukraine began in early 2022.

The ONS said: “Before the coronavirus pandemic, migration was relatively stable, but patterns and behaviours have been shifting considerably since then.

“Net migration increased sharply since 2021 because of a rise in non-EU immigration driven by a range of factors including those arriving on humanitarian routes (including Ukrainian and British National (Overseas) schemes), as well as an increase in non-EU students and workers.”