Sturgeon loses reputation and SNP votes
The SNP’s electoral chances are likely to have been dented further by the continuing controversy engulfing Nicola Sturgeon, polling experts have said.
While the party’s popularity had already begun to fall before Ms Sturgeon resigned as leader a year ago, that decline will have been accelerated by the row over SNP finances and the revelations at the Covid inquiry about her handling of the pandemic, they argued.
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, said on Wednesday that Ms Sturgeon’s evidence, in which she confirmed she had deleted WhatsApp messages at the height of the pandemic, would fuel a “huge sense of betrayal” among Scottish voters.
Labour are hoping to take a number of seats from Humza Yousaf’s party in this year’s general election, after being left with just one in 2019, and Keir Starmer needs a breakthrough in Scotland if he is to become prime minister.
Chris Hopkins, director of polling company Savanta, said: “The SNP’s polling decline actually began long before Sturgeon’s resignation as leader, but has accelerated throughout the controversy that has engulfed her ever since.
“What was once a 21-point SNP lead over Labour has completely disintegrated, and the last Savanta poll in Scotland showed the parties neck and neck on 35 per cent apiece. This would undoubtedly result in a heavy loss of seats for the SNP at the next election, and potential relegation to the fourth-largest party in the UK Parliament.”
He added: “It’s difficult to say with any certainty how much lower the SNP could drop. In recent history, the party has always been known for having a large core and loyal base, and with no alternative pro-independence party for SNP voters to switch to.
“However, there is some notable movement to Labour, with 18 per cent of 2021 SNP voters saying they’d vote Labour at the next General Election, and Anas Sarwar’s party are also pulling in voters from the Conservatives, making them a formidable opponent for the SNP where, electorally, you’d suspect things could get worse before they get better.”
Speaking to reporters in Westminster, Mr Sarwar said the former first minister’s evidence was all the more damaging because she had set herself up as a counterpoint to Boris Johnson during the pandemic.
Mr Sarwar added: “There is such a huge sense of betrayal amongst the Scottish public. Nicola Sturgeon was someone that, regardless of where they sit on the political spectrum, they looked at during the Covid pandemic, particularly in contrast to Boris Johnson, and thought this was someone that was standing up, telling the truth and being straight up with them and trying to navigate the best way through the pandemic.
“And I think there has been such a huge breach of that trust now, and such a sense of betrayal, that is going to rightfully anger so many people across the country.
“The anger with Boris Johnson was the whole, in her own words, he was a clown, he was an idiot, he didn’t know what he was doing. No one makes that accusation of Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. They knew what they were doing.”
Asked whether her evidence had damaged the case for Independence, Mr Sarwar said: “It’s for the Scottish people to decide their own future. I don’t support independence, I don’t support a referendum and that is our unequivocal position both in Scotland and across the UK.
“But in saying that I can completely understand why there are lots of people in Scotland whose drive towards supporting independence came from the fact that they wanted to run a million miles away from this rotten Tory government and they thought the only escape therefore was supporting the SNP or supporting independence.”
Mr Sarwar claimed Labour can now beat the Conservatives across the UK as well as the SNP in Scotland.
In her evidence to the Covid inquiry, Ms Sturgeon denied she had used the pandemic to further the case for independence.
She told inquiry counsel Jamie Dawson KC: “If I had at any point decided to politicise a global pandemic that was robbing people of their lives and livelihoods, and educational opportunities, and had decided in the face of that to prioritise campaigning for independence, then, yes, it absolutely would have been as you described. Which is precisely why I didn’t do it – I wouldn’t have done it.”
Ms Sturgeon told the inquiry it was “not my style and it’s never been my practice” to use WhatsApp to conduct government business “because it’s not a helpful process in reaching decisions”.
Asked what happened to the WhatsApp messages she sent and received during the pandemic, she said that they were “not retained”.
Ms Sturgeon argued that on rare occasions government business had been conducted via WhatsApp she had recorded it “properly through the system”.
Pressed again by Mr Dawson if she had deleted the messages, she said: “Yes, in the manner I have set out.”
She added that the Scottish Government was “open, transparent and accountable” during the pandemic and denied using the pandemic for political gain.
