Officials warned Sunak about prisons crisis ‘shitshow’ months before he acted
Government insiders have accused Rishi Sunak of deepening a crisis that probation officers say is now putting the public at unnecessary risk of rapes, murders and other serious crime.
Last month, when prison overcrowding forced ministers to start releasing inmates 70 days early, the Prime Minister said: âNo one would be put on the scheme if they were deemed a threat to public safety.â
But that is ânot factually correctâ according to Tania Bassett, national official for the probation trade union Napo. She has told i that high-risk prisoners are being released, sometimes against the recommendations of probation officers.
âSerious further offences are inevitable,â she said. âSpecific violent and sexual offences like murder, manslaughter and rape committed by people who are, or were recently, under probation supervision.â
Ministry of Justice officials have told i that they expect the situation to get âreally badâ during the election campaign, when âthereâs no functioning government to make decisions over what should be doneâ.
They say Downing Street is culpable because of months of earlier politically motivated delays in tackling the crisis.
Justice Secretary Alex Chalk announced a âlimitedâ scheme to free some low-level inmates up to 18 days early in October to ease prison overcrowding, expanding it to 60 days in March and 70 in May as the crisis deepened.
âNo 10 dragged its heels for as long as possibleâ
But sources say Mr Chalk had been seeking Mr Sunakâs support for an early release scheme months before the move was eventually given the green light. And they believe earlier action could have eased the current dangerous position.
âIt was very politically unpalatable so they [No 10] didnât want to do it until any other avenue had been explored,â a Ministry of Justice official told i.
âThey could have done everything much earlier but they knew it would be really bad for them. Theyâve been dragging their heels for as long as possible.â
Now, amid warnings that prisons are close to âcomplete chaosâ, fears are growing about the implementation of the 70-day early release system and the ability of a probation service âalready at breaking pointâ to supervise a sudden influx of offenders.
The missed opportunities to tackle the prisonsâ crisis
Proposals to scrap short prison sentences because of high reoffending rates were originally put forward by then-justice secretary David Gauke in 2019, but scrapped by Boris Johnson after he became prime minister and sacked Mr Gauke.
Ministry of Justice officials say that since then Mr Sunakâs Government has missed at least three opportunities to do something about it:
*Ministers were urged to take action to ease the crisis in March last year. But officials had to wait months before the first early release scheme was introduced in October
*The idea of suspending short prison sentences was revived when the Sentencing Bill was introduced in November. But it then stalled â sources say it was supposed to be considered in February, but was deprioritised by Downing Street.
*Then last month the Government decided not to save the bill in the final pre-election âwash-upâ. Officials view the decision as political. Â
A recent inspection of Lewes prison in Sussex found that even the 18-day scheme was âundermining safe release planning and risk managementâ. Appeals against early dates had been supported by prison managers but were âturned down despite clear risk issuesâ.
The report revealed that a high-risk prisoner with a history of domestic violence and stalking was freed early, despite being a ârisk to childrenâ.
The Government has so far refused to disclose the number of inmates being released under the scheme, or their characteristics, with justice minister Edward Argar telling MPs in March that no figures would be published until there was âone yearâs worth of dataâ.
âThe system is collapsing. It will have a terrible impact on victimsâ
Claire Waxman, the Victims Commissioner for London, told i she was concerned about public safety and trust. âHow can we keep asking victims to come forward when the justice system is not working?â she said. âNone of it is functioning well.â
She expects âfalloutâ from early release measures because of the strain on probation services.
âSerious further offences either to the primary victim or the wider public is the big concern,â she said. âBut thereâs also the impact on victims who might be expecting a release date months from now and being told with not very much notice: âThey are coming outâ. That will have a terrible impact.â

Ms Waxman said she was already being alerted to numerous cases where offenders breached court orders or licence measures and no action was taken.
âThe entire system is collapsing, thatâs where weâve got to now,â she said.
Civil servants have been sending ministers formal submissions warning that prison overcrowding required urgent action and giving policy options since at least March 2023, i understands, with official projections from 2021 accurately predicting that operational capacity would be overwhelmed in late 2023.
âNo 10 has been ignoring it and hoping it goes away â itâs a perfect storm of shit,â an official said. âIt is going to get bad over the next couple of months, really bad.â
Serious crime from early release scheme âinevitableâ because probation canât cope
Tania Bassett, national official for the probation trade union Napo, said it was âinevitableâ that freed prisoners would commit further crimes because of the massive increase in demand on the overwhelmed service.
âEverybody talks about prison capacity because thereâs a finite number but probation is over capacity, understaffed and already at breaking point,â she told i.
âItâs not remotely manageable, the system itself isnât working. A lot of members are reporting just 24 hoursâ notice that people are coming out because they are not notified by prisons.â
Ms Bassett said that was not enough time arrange proper monitoring and rehabilitation for offenders, or safety plans for their victims.
âWe know that safety plans for victims of domestic abuse arenât being fully implemented because they canât do it in time,â she added.
âWe know a lot of people are being released homeless. Mental health treatment, drug abuse appointments, all of that stuff is just not in place.
âPeople should be able to come out with a robust risk management plan in place and now theyâre just being kicked out of prison and left homeless with very little support.â
Insiders also believe that the looming general election and challenges from the right wing of the Conservative Party made the Prime Minister and his team unwilling to openly support early release, or new laws to reduce the number of people sent to prison.
The Sentencing Bill would have forced courts to âsuspendâ prison sentences of under a year in most cases and subjected offenders to âcommunity ordersâ instead, aiming to reduce the prison population to safe levels without the need for early release.
It was introduced in November but did not get past the second stage of the parliamentary process. Sources say the bill was due to be considered in February but was deprioritised by No 10, and then lost altogether following the Prime Ministerâs decision not include it in a final âwash-upâ list of legislation to be passed after he called the general election.
Politics were âtoo difficultâ. âNo one wants to talk about prisonsâ
âThe presumption against short sentences would have basically solved a lot of the issues,â a Ministry of Justice source said.
âIf theyâd passed that earlier in the year that would have made a huge difference and we wouldnât have had to go to 70-day early release. We were ready to go.â
The official believes the Government made a political decision not to save the Sentencing Bill in the âwash-upâ period that saw other laws rapidly passed before parliament was dissolved last week.
âItâs not going to be part of the election campaign going forward because itâs too difficult,â they said. âNo one wants to talk about prisons.â
Officials think the 70-day early release scheme will only bring a temporary reprieve from the prison overcrowding crisis. Prisons are already ânear to complete chaosâ Prison Governors Association president, Tom Wheatley, said this week.
He told the BBC that the 70-day early release scheme had led to a drop in the prison population but predicted that the spare capacity would be used up again within six weeks.
The Government has also triggered emergency measures to temporarily hold prisoners in police cells and triage and control their movement to and from courts.
On 14 May, the National Police Chiefsâ Council sent a letter to all forces saying they should consider âpausing non-priority arrests and any planned operations where large numbers of arrests may take place to ease the pressure within the criminal justice systemâ.
While the letter claimed âpublic protection remains a priorityâ, it sparked fresh alarm over public safety.
The Ministry of Justice said anyone convicted of a sexual, terrorist or serious violence offence was excluded from early release and the prison service could block the move for those who present a risk.
It said offenders are put under probation supervision and licence conditions which can include electronic tags, curfews and exclusion zones.
The Conservative Party was contacted for comment.
Criminal justice system at âbreaking pointâ
Official figures show that only 6 per cent of recorded crimes in England and Wales are prosecuted within a year, while court backlogs continue to rise.
More than 67,000 Crown Court cases are waiting to be heard, and analysis by i shows the figure has been rising by an average of 470 every month for the past year.
The resulting delays mean that one in five prison inmates (16,458 people) are awaiting trial or sentence, with the figure at a record high.
Barrister Sam Townend KC, chair of the Bar Council, said: âThe criminal justice system is at the point of structural failure.
âThe governmentâs criminal justice policy has now reached a dead end. It increased the demand put into the system by increasing sentences and adding new offences, but no provision was made for how those additional demands would be serviced.â
Mr Townend said there were capacity and resource shortages across the system, from policing, through the Crown Prosecution Service, to solicitors, prosecuting and defending barristers, judges and then through the prison and probation services.
âMassive courts backlogâ
âSo weâre now seeing the consequences of that through the massive courts backlog and the prisons being full, resulting in these pretty surprising operational measures to handle it.â
The government has blamed 2022 strike action by criminal barristers over pay, alongside the Covid pandemic, for the backlogs but Mr Townend said the ultimate cause was âdemand the government itself has placed on the systemâ and pre-2020 budget cuts.
He called for the next government to fulfil the Conservative Partyâs 2019 pledge to set up a royal commission into the criminal justice system, adding: âWe need a degree of seriousness and investment that hasnât been present over the last decade or more. There are difficult choices to be made.â
The head of justice at the Law Society, Richard Miller, said court delays were being worsened further by courtrooms being shut at least 100 times every week for âemergencyâ repairs.
âSometimes itâs part of the ceiling falling in or a leak, the physical state of the courts is a physical and ongoing crisis,â Richard Miller said.
âEvery single part of the system is beyond breaking point. We donât have enough solicitors to represent people in police stations, weâve got cases where youâve got no judges or no barristers, weâve got prisons full beyond bursting, probation is so stretched they canât deal with those being released.â
Tana Adkin KC, chair of the Criminal Bar Association, said the next government would be facing a combination of âshort-term fires and long-term planning on the bigger pictureâ.
âYou canât snap your fingers and fix the problem,â she warned. âCriminal justice has been going to the back of the queue for too long.â