Poll bounce for Keir Starmer after Rishi Sunak ditches Net Zero pledges

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has jumped three points in the wake of Rishi Sunak backtracking on the country’s Net Zero pledges and losing two by-elections, polling shows.

According to an exclusive poll by BMG Consulting on behalf of i, Labour is now 17 points ahead of the Tories, on 44 per cent compared to the Conservative’s 27 per cent – which if replicated at a general election would hand Sir Keir Starmer a landslide majority on a scale not seen since 1997.

The figures mirror those of other polls, including one on Friday by Savanta, which showed the Conservatives lagging 19 points behind Labour, the biggest gap between the two parties since February.

The increase in the BMG polling lead for Labour coincides with the Prime Minister’s decision to signal a retreat from the UK’s Net Zero commitments, including reviewing the ban on gas boilers by 2035 and delaying essential recycling reforms until after the next election.

Perhaps of greater concern for Mr Sunak is the fact that a third – 33 per cent – of people surveyed who voted Tory at the last election said they would not do so next time around.

The poll also shows that his net approval ratings are at their lowest since he became Prime Minister last October, dropping from -25 in June to -28 in July. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer also saw his approval ratings fall from -2 in June to -4 this month.

However, the figures once again paint a gloomy picture for Mr Sunak, who despite a recent flurry of policy announcements and a surprise victory in the Uxbridge and West Ruislip by-election last week has seen his party fall further behind in the polls.

Tory MPs last week left Westminster claiming they had a chance if they could chip away at Labour’s lead last month, with one minister telling i after the Uxbridge result: “The world looks a little better for the Conservatives. The ranks of the “there is a narrow landing strip just possible for a Conservative win” contingent of MPs are a little bigger.”

But polling experts said the current figures would mean Labour would romp to an overwhelming majority taking more than 400 seats at a general election, with the Tories on less than 200.

Yiota Papouridou, a pollster at BMG, said the two recent by-election defeats coupled with an increasing poll lead for Labour meant “things are not looking good for Rishi Sunak”.

“Broadly speaking, the by-election results and the current polling are in tune with each other and send a consistent message; the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble.

“While Sunak will have expected it to take time to recover, the fact that we are already more than halfway through 2023 and there are no meaningful signs of any substantial recovery is ominous for the Prime Minister.”

The polling also shows the Liberal Democrats enjoying their biggest share of voting intention since BMG began its surveys with i, with 14 per cent of people saying they would vote Lib Dem at the next election.

BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,524 GB adults online between 25th and 26th July 2023. Data are weighted. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.