How a Putin snub to Trump could be a win for Europe and Ukraine

As anticipation builds ahead of proposed Ukraine peace talks in Turkey, it becomes increasingly likely the meeting will mark a turning point in negotiations.

Vladimir Putin has evaded a call by European leaders for a 30-day ceasefire and instead proposed a meeting between Moscow and Kyiv representatives in Istanbul on Thursday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he’ll travel to Turkey but will only attend the meeting if Putin himself is present. The Kremlin hasn’t confirmed who will be part of its delegation.

US President Donald Trump, who is on a visit to the Middle East, floated the idea of attending the meeting too, saying on Monday, “I believe the two leaders are going to be there [Turkey]. I was thinking about flying over.”

Zelensky has said he hopes Trump will fly to Turkey, because, “If Trump travels, it will push Putin also to travel”.

“Trump can really help. It’s the situation where the US being present can give important guarantees,” Zelensky said.

But the opposite scenario is also likely – and if Putin skips the meeting, experts have said that would deal a blow to Trump and could potentially prompt him to take more drastic measures against Russia.

It could also serve as the cue that will make the US “move on” altogether.

Putin’s theatrics could push Trump away

By refusing to commit to the 30-day ceasefire proposed by Ukraine and its European allies – and instead suggesting a meeting – Putin is prolonging the theatrics of negotiations, creating the appearance of engagement for Trump without offering anything tangible in return.

“This is effectively an attempt by the Kremlin to coerce Ukraine into a deal and giving Donald Trump just enough to be able to say, well, the Russians do want peace, they are trying, and to maybe push the Ukrainians towards signing a deal that’s bad for them,” said Stephen Hall, Professor in Russian and Post-Soviet Politics at the University of Bath.

“There are so many possibilities as to what can go wrong.”

If the Russian leader fails to appear, or if disagreements between the two sides prove irreconcilable, the US may decide it’s time to walk away from moderating the negotiations, Hill said.

Another factor would be which officials are representing Moscow and the US — neither has yet confirmed their contingents.

“The Ukrainians and the Russians, they are opposed in terms of what they want, even the minimal outcomes, (…) so it’s quite possible that the Americans will decide that now is the time to walk away,” Hill said.

“It depends entirely on who is there. [Secretary of State] Marco Rubio, if he’s there, he seems to be a little bit more understanding of Ukraine’s position compared to others, like [Vice President] JD Vance and, of course, Donald Trump.”

A shift in Ukraine’s favour?

If the outcome in Turkey doesn’t satisfy Trump or make him feel he has secured a diplomatic win, it could prompt him to shift focus and choose to rally support for Ukraine and Europe.

That would be welcomed by the Europeans, who would likely breathe a sigh of relief after months of tense interactions with the Trump administration.

“The Europeans have got quiet in terms of wanting to have someone there, so I suspect they also believe that they’ve either been told by the Americans that they’re not invited or that they suspect the talks are going to go nowhere anyway,” Hill said.

European countries “are still trying to play catch up” when it comes to upgrading and expanding their militaries, and it will take “at least a decade, if not longer, to be able to get there,” Hill said.

“The Europeans are in a difficult position,” he said. “They need the Americans on their side.”

Being able to support Ukraine militarily, as well as sustain their own security would be a challenge for European countries, as they “also have to rebuild their armies themselves.”

“For the British, the French, the Germans, that’s going to be very hard. I suspect that they are hoping that Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin will highlight finally to Donald Trump that they don’t want peace, and that what they actually want is Ukrainian suzerainty, Ukrainian capitulation, effectively.”

Meeting with Zelensky would undermine Putin’s propaganda

Trump and Putin have both falsely claimed that Zelensky is an illegitimate president, arguing that no election has been held since his term expired last year.

However, under Ukraine’s constitution, elections cannot occur while the country is under martial law, which was imposed in response to Putin’s invasion

Yet, Trump has claimed Zelensky is a “dictator” while Putin falsely labelled him a “Nazi”, as part of his broader disinformation campaign.

A face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelensky “would rather undermine Putin’s credibility and also propaganda”, Hill said.

A potential reduction in the use of fire and drone attacks on both sides in the hours leading up to the meeting “would at least highlight that they are willing to talk,” he said.

There will likely be quite a few comments coming from Russian and American officials about what each side wants, he said. “So we can expect lots of soundbites.”

But when it comes to tangible solutions and how exactly events in Istanbul unfold, at this stage, “it’s almost impossible, very difficult to predict.”