Putin’s ‘air terror’ against Ukraine signals he’s been emboldened by Trump

Donald Trump’s capitulation to Russian demands has emboldened Vladimir Putin whose escalating air attacks on Ukraine aim to bolster Moscow’s advantage before any peace talks, experts have said.

As European leaders gathered at the weekend to work on a peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine, further east Russian drones continued to devastate civilian infrastructure and take more lives.

“More than 1,050 attack drones, nearly 1,300 aerial bombs, and more than 20 missiles” were launched at Ukraine over the past week “to destroy cities and kill people”, Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday.

The strikes persisted as on Friday, in an extraordinary showdown in Washington between Zelensky and the US President, Trump berated him for allegedly showing insufficient gratitude to the US.

The tense confrontation in the Oval Office prompted Trump to order a suspension of all US military aid to Ukraine until he determines Zelensky has made a commitment to peace talks, according to officials.

By halting the vital US assistance, Trump is essentially pressuring Ukraine into negotiations by threatening additional setbacks on the battlefield.

The spectacle of the US leaders bullying the president of an allied nation fighting for its survival came shortly after a dizzying succession of events in which Trump drew America closer to Russia, organizing US-Russia talks on ending the war and refusing to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine at the UN.

Russia, watching every move, has been quick to express its delight, with the Kremlin spokesman saying the US’s foreign policy now largely aligns with that of the Russian government.

“Trump has emboldened Putin,” said Timothy Ash, Associate Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the London-based think-tank Chatham House.

“I think Trump has given Putin everything he wants, more or less, in terms of he’s given away all his negotiating points, all his leverage. No Nato, no security guarantees.”

The alignment of the Trump administration with the Kremlin’s demands would embolden Moscow to go back to its “maximalist demands,” which include replacing Zelensky and demilitarising Ukraine, making it “unable to defend itself so Russia can attack again”, Ash added.

The potential start of peace negotiations and the prospect of a ceasefire could push Russia to become even more aggressive in the weeks ahead, as Putin seeks to maintain the upper hand.

“Putin always escalates before negotiations,” Ash said. “He’s done that throughout the last decade, so we should expect that.”

Dozens of civilians have been killed across Ukraine since Trump held what he dubbed a “highly productive” phone call with the Russian president less than three weeks ago.

On Monday, the Ukrainian military said it shot down 46 of 83 drones launched by Russia overnight. Another 31 were “lost” and did not reach their targets, likely due to electronic warfare countermeasures, the military added

More than 30 servicemen were killed on Saturday when a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile fitted with cluster munitions hit a training ground in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region.

And just days earlier, as Ukraine was preparing to mark the third anniversary of the start of the war on 24 February, Russia launched more than 200 drones in an overnight attack — the largest of the war — Zelensky said.

According to Ukraine’s air force, 138 drones were shot down, while another 119 vanished from radar after being disrupted by electronic warfare. Russia also launched three ballistic missiles, causing damage in five Ukrainian regions, the air force said.

A farewell ceremony was held in Kyiv on Monday for Ukrainian journalist Tetiana Kulyk and her husband, oncologist-surgeon Pavlo Ivanchov, who were killed on 26 February in a Russian drone attack.

“It is incredibly painful, and I express the grief of our entire team at losing such bright and remarkable individuals,” said Serhii Cherevatyi, director of the state news agency Ukrinform, where Kulyk worked.

“Those who seek negotiations do not deliberately strike civilians with ballistic missiles. To force Russia to stop its attacks, we need greater collective strength from the world,” Zelensky said on Monday.

Trump’s alignment with the Kremlin’s talking points, and offering concessions before negotiations have even begun, make Putin feel he is in a stronger position than before the new US administration took office, suggested Ash.

Ukraine’s bid to join Nato, regardless of whether it was a realistic prospect, could have provided Trump and Kyiv with leverage to secure concessions from Moscow in other areas, such as occupied territory “or Ukraine’s military capability in any post-conflict scenario”, Ash said.

“I think Putin was in a weak position going into negotiations, and now [Trump] he’s made Russia think that it can play a much tougher hand, be much more aggressive with Ukraine,” Ash said. “So, again, Trump had a very, very good negotiating position, and he’s thrown it away.”

However, were the US to reduce its military and financial support for Ukraine, so would its ability to shape decisions be diminished, to its detriment.

In response to Moscow’s attacks, Kyiv may feel compelled to intensify its own attacks on Russian territory to disrupt Moscow’s military supplies and operations.

The targeting of Russian oil refineries by Ukraine could also result in higher oil prices — something Trump is undoubtedly trying to avoid, Ash said.

“It could be escalation by both sides. I mean, Ukraine has long-range capability and has been moderating its attacks, long-range attacks on Russia because the Americans have asked them not to do it,” he said.

“If the Americans are not providing arms, there’s no constraint on what Ukraine can do.”

But the United States’ unreliability could, paradoxically, benefit Ukraine in another way, Ash suggested, pointing to concrete steps being taken by Europe to increase their defence capabilities and support for Ukraine.

“It’s clear that the US is not a neutral arbiter in peace talks,” but that could work to Ukraine’s advantage, Ash said. A blueprint crafted by European allies is likely to offer more favourable conditions for Ukraine than a “deal” imposed by Trump at any cost, which would likely benefit Moscow.

“In a way, it’s created momentum in Europe to take the initiative on peace talks,” he said. “Now it’s back to Europe and Ukraine, and that gives Ukraine input and Europe input into that peace process.”

A deal designed by Ukraine and Europe could also mean a more stable and lasting peace.

“In a way, it perhaps suggests that the peace could be more durable. I think an imposed ceasefire by Russia and the US would not have worked. So, I mean, there are some positives to come out of it,” Ash said.