Three vital questions remaining over the crashed Russian plane

It is still unclear why and how a Russian military transport plane crashed in a border region near Ukraine, with Moscow alleging that all those on board, including dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war (PoW), were killed.

Russia blamed Ukraine for shooting down the Il-76 transport plane that crashed in the Belgorod region on Wednesday, saying it was carrying 65 Ukrainian PoWs who were on their way to a prisoner exchange, accompanied by six crew members and three soldiers.

Moscow did not provide evidence to support its claims, and the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has yet to comment on the incident.

The initial photographs of the debris on the ground are inconclusive. One video appeared to show a plane hurtling towards the ground before a large fireball erupts.

The Ukrainian response further added to the confusion. It did not immediately confirm or deny the crash, and initial statements attributed to the Ukrainian military in local media were later retracted.

Establishing the facts throughout the near two-year war has often been difficult, with Russia and Ukraine trading conflicting accusations and each side tightly controlling information.

Here i takes a look at the unanswered questions of the Russian plane crash

Were there Ukrainian PoWs on board?

The Russian defence ministry claimed that Ukraine knew a transport plane carrying the Ukrainian soldiers was expected at the Belgorod airfield.

Russian state media published a list of names of the 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers it said were on board along with their dates of birth, which some Ukrainian media said included names of people who had already been exchanged.

Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) confirmed that a prisoner exchange had been planned for Wednesday, but said it had not been told how Russia would bring the PoWs to the handover point and that Ukraine had not been asked to ensure airspace security around Belgorod unlike previous swaps.

“On this basis, we may be talking about planned and deliberate actions by Russia to destabilise the situation in Ukraine and weaken international support for our state,” the GUR said in a statement on Telegram.

It said it was verifying the Russian claim regarding the Ukrainian PoWs on the plane, but that it had no “reliable or comprehensive information” on who was on board “or in what number”.

The Ukrainian army also issued a statement saying it would “continue to take measures to destroy delivery vehicles and control airspace to eliminate the terrorist threat, including in the Belgorod-Kharkiv direction”. The statement did not mention the crash.

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The Ukrainian online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda, citing military sources, reported that the plane was carrying S-300 missiles.

Commenting on the incident, the US National Security Council spokesman, John Kirby, said: “We’ve seen the reports, but we’re not in any position to confirm them.

“The Ukrainians are claiming one thing, the Russians are claiming another, and we just don’t know enough to comment on it.”

A US official told Associated Press it was not clear that there were Ukrainian PoWs aboard the aircraft that crashed.

In his evening address, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said greater clarity was needed about what happened and who was on board the plane.

“It is clear that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, the feelings of their loved ones and the emotions of our society,” he said.

How did the plane crash?

The Russian defence ministry claimed that its radar operators had detected two Ukrainian missiles launched at the time of the crash.

It said the plane was destroyed by an anti-aircraft missile system deployed in the area of Liptsy in Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region, some 50 miles from where the plane came down.

Without confirming or denying Kyiv’s involvement in the plane crash, Ukraine’s General Staff said in its statement that it was closely monitoring Russia’s missile launch points and the logistics of its supply, “especially with the use of military transport aircraft”.

Ukrainska Pravda initially reported that Ukrainian forces downed the plane, but later withdrew the statement and issued a correction saying one of its military sources “did not confirm this information”.

The Belgorod region has come under frequent attack from Ukraine in recent months, including a December missile strike which killed 25 people.

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What happens now?

Two black boxes, also called flight recorders, were found at the crash site, Russia’s Ria Novosti news agency reported on Thursday, citing an emergency service source.

“Both black boxes were discovered – a flight parameters recording device and a voice recorder,” the source said, adding that they were handed over to investigators.

The Moscow Times said a Russian defence ministry lab was reportedly expected to receive the black boxes for decoding on Friday.

Mr Zelensky called for an international investigation while Ukraine is also trying to find out more details about the incident.

Ukraine’s ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, said: “We demand a recognised international investigation,” adding that he would send letters to the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross calling requesting one.

“Regarding an international investigation, I believe that we will do our part to make it happen. But I am convinced that… the Russians will make loud statements but will not allow anyone in. They will not hand over any materials for analysis and will simply blame Ukraine,” he said.

The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, has requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council over the crash, saying it was a “terrorist attack”.

A spokesperson at the UN told Reuters that a meeting would be held on Thursday.