What Tory rebels will consider after local polls
The Conservatives may be braced for a difficult night on Thursday – but recent history shows that the results of the local and mayoral elections are not automatic predictors for the outcome of the next general election.
Tory plotters unhappy with Rishi Sunak’s leadership may use this week’s results as a reason to oust him and give the party a fighting chance when the nationwide poll comes.
But while there will be some useful clues from this set of elections as to how the public may vote in that general election, the Prime Minister will have a claim – rightly – that it is still all to play for.
The results of the past two general elections, in 2017 and 2019, did not follow the trend set out in the preceding town hall polls.
In May 2017, Theresa May’s Conservatives gained 563 council seats and Labour, under Jeremy Corbyn, lost 382.
This is to have likely contributed to the false sense of security in Downing Street at the time – reinforced by opinion polls – that the then Prime Minister would cruise to an easy victory in the general election just a month later.
However, a combination of a disastrous campaign – during which Mrs May was forced to U-turn on a fresh social care policy and suggested she would scrap the state pension triple lock – and the sense that the election was an unnecessary political device to neutralise her Tory critics on Brexit, led to the Conservatives losing their parliamentary majority.
Mr Sunak will be wishing the opposite story becomes true in 2024: even if the Tories do badly on Thursday, he could pin his hopes on voters feeling better about the economy by the autumn, after one or two interest rate cuts, and unveil hard-hitting policies during a campaign.
In 2019, the Conservatives, again under Mrs May, performed badly in the May local elections, when the party lost control of 44 councils and 1,330 seats.
By the time the general election was called in the autumn, there was a change of leader in Boris Johnson, who swept to a landslide victory promising to “get Brexit done”.
That year’s local election results may have been an indicator of voters being unhappy with a chaotic government after nine years in power. The change of leader and prime minister, and a clear policy, was enough to win the election – a thought that will be spurring on Tory plotters this week.
Although there will be no automatic read-across from this week’s results and the general election, expected in the second half of the year, there will still be plenty of clues that show how each party is doing.
It will be the biggest test of opinion in the Red Wall since Mr Sunak became Prime Minister, which could suggest whether Keir Starmer is on course for a landslide at the general election.
The Blackpool South by-election, where Reform UK is standing, will also offer pointers as to how that party will perform in a nationwide poll, although it will be difficult to read from just one constituency.
And this week’s results will still be crucial in terms of morale in both the Conservative and Labour parties.
General elections are often about momentum as much as policies – and Sir Keir will hope that a good night for Labour can be carried through to general election day.
Chris Hopkins, director of polling company Savanta, said: “Local elections are a helpful indicator of future general elections, but only to a point.
“They give a sense of the wider mood music, but because of low turnout, hyper-local issues, and smaller parties acting as disruptors, the importance of local elections can sometimes be overstated, and the analysis sometimes over-played, in terms of their importance for general elections.
“The Liberal Democrats and Greens, in particular the Liberal Democrats, could perform well at local elections, but replicating that at a general election is a considerably different challenge.
“We will likely get a better sense of whether the Conservatives should expect annihilation or simply a drubbing in a general election, as well the inroads Labour can make into previously more challenging parts of the country.
“Reform UK – aside from their performance in Blackpool South’s by-election – will continue to be an enigma, due to their lack of candidates this time round.”
