This Republican debate is a doomed last-ditch attempt to stop Donald Trump
Curiously enough, the time for talking is over.
The second Republican Party debate in Simi, California tonight is an occasion where, in theory, seven hopefuls will make their case to the party faithful – and the nation at large – why they should be the next president of the United States.
In reality, it is a last-ditch, late-in-the-day opportunity for one of them to try and do something to stop Donald Trump’s seemingly unstoppable journey to collecting the party’s nomination for president.
In all likelihood, even though the first vote in the primary process is not until 15 January in Iowa, and the general election not until 5 November, 2024, it is already too late to stop a Trump-Biden rematch, even though polls show most of the country do not want that.
The reason? Since Trump formally announced his bid for a second term in November 2022, seeking to be the first candidate to win a second non-consecutive term since Grover Cleveland in the late 1880s, he has run and charged and never lost momentum.
For a while, some polls suggested the Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had captured voters’ attention. But as DeSantis was exposed to the national spotlight, he was shown to have little of the dark charm of Trump, and as indictments piled up against the former president, so support around him solidified.
Of course, outside events could yet intervene to stop Trump, such as a health scare, but right now the prize looks like his. And he knows it.
“I’m leading all of Republicans in numbers that nobody’s actually seen before,” Trump told a rally in South Carolina this week, where he described Nikki Haley, the state’s former governor and the person he made his US ambassador to the United Nations, a “bird brain”.
Just look at the polls. A recent national poll by The Economist puts Trump on 53 points, DeSantis on 14, Haley on 7, Vivek Ramaswamy on 5, Mike Pence on 4, Tim Scott on 3, Chris Christie on 2, and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum Burgum and Asa Hutchinson on 0. (Hutchinson did not qualify for tonight’s debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.)
When you look at the state polls, Trump’s dominance appears no less impressive. In Iowa, CBS scored Trump 51, DeSantis 21, Haley 8, Ramaswamy 5, Scott 6 and Pence 6, Christie 1, Burgum and Hutchinson on 1, and Binkley on 0. In New Hampshire, the next state to vote, Trump has a 37-point lead over his nearest rival, Nikki Haley.
Some of those taking to the stage tonight must know their long-shot bids are already dead in the water. DeSantis, Haley, Pence and Ramaswamy appear to believe they can still pull things around, winning Iowa using its affirmation to help deliver a second victory in New Hampshire.
But even after the first debate, when Haley was perceived to have bagged some all-important viral moments clashing with her competitors, something that earned her some appearances on the political talk shows and boosted her campaign coffers, she failed to capitalise. She was repeatedly unwilling to confront Trump on any of the myriad issues that seem obvious to his critics.
This is something we have seen with all the GOP candidates. Each tells their party they would make a better candidate than Trump, but none is willing to go after his record or his being found guilty of sexual assault in a civil trial, of the four indictments looming over his head. Just this week, a court in New York ruled that Trump had committed fraud by misleading people about his wealth.
None of them want to go for the jugular, apparently fearful of having his supporters turn on them. One commentator pointed out Haley would be a perfect GOP candidate were this taking place ten years ago.
Trump knows all of this and it is why he is again not even bothering to show up for the debate. While the seven wannabes slug it out in California, Trump will be delivering a speech to auto-workers in Michigan, a state he flipped for Republicans in 2016, but narrowly lost to Biden in 2020.
It appears that Trump, this time with a much more professional staff than he had in his previous campaigns, is already thinking about the general election against Biden, and simply assuming the nomination is his.
It really is a last chance for Pence and DeSantis and Haley. They need to do something, they need to find some way, to close the gap and persuade voters they are the future, not the 77-year former president facing multiple criminal indictments. It is a tough struggle to say the least.
Lots gets written about how the GOP has changed dramatically. I am not so sure. The US only really has two parties, and most Republicans who voted for George W Bush in 2000 and 2004, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012, likely voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and will do so again in 2024.
What has changed is that the populist, isolationist, nihilistic section of the party that has always existed but was a fringe, is now calling the shots. Once consigned to standing in the corner with their placards at party nominating conventions, they are now the people causing havoc in the House, refusing to meet with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, repeating the talking points of Vladimir Putin, and backing a candidate for president even if he has been sent to jail.
The person who heads that club is Donald J Trump.
