Rishi Sunak will ‘100%’ face a leadership challenge, claims minister

Ministers are braced for a leadership challenge to Rishi Sunak before the summer after the Prime Minister ruled out calling a May election.

No 10 is gambling on an improvement in the UK economy to start closing the large polling gap between Labour and the Conservatives, i has been told.

But senior Tories loyal to Mr Sunak fear it is increasingly likely that rebel MPs will seek to remove him from Downing Street before the election happens.

Local elections take place across much of England on 2 May, with the Conservatives potentially facing a large number of council losses for the second year in a row.

The Prime Minister confirmed on Thursday that he would not seek to hold a general election on the same day, with polling day in autumn remaining the “working assumption” of No 10.

But a minister told i: “There 100 per cent will be some form of challenge to him – 2 May is looking dreadful. And the party is just utterly despondent. Everyone has checked out. An election is all we have left – call it, get it done.”

Asked whether the backbench mood had turned against Mr Sunak after a week in which he saw one of his MPs defect to Reform UK and a row over racist comments by the Tories’ biggest donor, another Conservative MP said: “Something has definitely shifted.”

Only two MPs have openly called for the Prime Minister to be replaced, but a group of Tory rebels have been discussing the possibility of removing him since the start of the year and encouraging more people to send no-confidence letters to backbench chief Sir Graham Brady.

One rebel source said: “There’s anger at the Budget from the One Nation group and a good chunk of the letters are coming from the left of the party.

“What they say is there are only 20 or so weeks left in the campaign, the Budget was meant to be one of our big events and we blew it. We made no progress, in fact we went backwards.” MPs from all wings of the party have complained that last week’s Budget contained few major eye-catching interventions, other than the 2p cut to national insurance.

Mr Sunak ruled out a May election following growing speculation he was trying to wield the threat of going to the polls against the rebels, suggesting he would put their jobs on the line if they sought to move against him.

A No 10 source said the Prime Minister wanted to focus on policy delivery in the hope that an uptick in the economy will convince voters who have turned against the Government to change their minds. The source said: “He has got lots to do, the economy is turning a corner and people will starting feeling that in their pockets soon.”

Ministers also hope that next week will see the Safety of Rwanda Bill become law, allowing the first deportation flights carrying asylum seekers to the east African country to take off by the end of May.