The unlikely row threatening Starmer’s Brexit reset is at a crucial tipping point

A European court ruling on fishing rights that threatens to derail Sir Keir Starmer’s Brexit reset at a critical moment is expected on Monday.

The i Paper understands UK ministers are expecting a tribunal to rule on whether the UK must drop its ban on sand eel fishing – designed to protect endangered puffins – after it was challenged by the EU next week.

Whichever way the court rules, it threatens to disrupt highly sensitive negotiations between London and Brussels over fishing rights that will influence whether the Prime Minister can get the security and defence pact he covets at a landmark UK-EU summit on 19 May.

The current UK-EU agreement on the rights of European trawlers to fish in British waters expires in 2026.

The EU, led by coastal member states such as France and Denmark against the wishes of others like Germany and Poland, has been insisting that the UK must agree a new deal on fishing rights if it wants a defence deal with Brussels.

The sand eels ruling will come just three weeks before the 19 May summit at which Starmer is trying to push the EU to sign off on a defence deal.

If the Permanent Court of Arbitration rules against the EU that the UK can maintain its sand eel ban or produces a fudged judgment, it risks the issue being dragged into the wider negotiations by the coastal countries with large fishing industries.

If it rules against the UK Government and forces Britain to drop its ban on the fishing of sand eels – a vital food source for threatened puffin populations – it could make it more politically difficult for Starmer to make compromises on fishing and in other areas, such as youth mobility.

Fishing rights v defence pact

On fishing, Starmer is not expected to agree to giving the EU more catch as he fears this would be politically difficult to sell in the UK.

But he is willing to make an outline commitment to maintaining existing quotas for several years rather than returning to a system of annual negotiations, The i Paper understands.

However, the UK does not believe a fishing deal should be a precondition to a defence pact, which Starmer and ministers have argued is vital and in both sides’ interests given the deteriorating security situation on the continent driven primarily by Russian aggression.

The PM is expected to make this case in talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in London on Thursday, in a meeting an EU source said was “clearly an important stepping stone towards the summit”.

A European diplomatic source said that while there are still splits between EU members on how hard a concession to extract on fish, but that ultimately the UK will likely need to offer “a bit more” than an outline commitment, “especially if a defence and security deal is struck at the same time”.

Under-30s migration also on the table

The EU will also push the UK to agree on a “clear intention” to strike a youth mobility deal at the 19 May summit, having earlier downgraded its ambitions for a quick, early deal in this area.

The diplomatic source said the EU is likely to want a “road map” to agreement on easier migration for under-30s as part of a political declaration at the 19 May summit, a draft of which is currently circulating between Brussels and London.

It comes with Starmer still yet to decide between warring Cabinet ministers on how far to go, with the likes of Rachel Reeves and Brexit reset chief Nick Thomas-Symonds believed to be in favour of a youth mobility deal, but Home Secretary Yvette Cooper sceptical due to her overarching goal of cutting immigration.

One Government source said a UK position on youth mobility has not been finalised, and that “conversations are ongoing” across the Cabinet.

Sir Nick Harvey, the Liberal Democrat former armed forces minister, welcomed suggestions that a compromise may be in the offing on youth mobility.

The European Movement CEO said: “The news that the Government seems to be seriously considering a youth mobility scheme with the EU has been a long time coming. 

“Its former hostility to the idea could not be justified when the benefits of such a scheme are so obvious. 

“Young people want and deserve the chance to study or work in Europe.”

Asked about youth mobility, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said:“We have spoken previously about our position on our red lines for those conversations – no return to freedom of movement, the customs union or the single market. 

“You obviously know about our commitments to reducing net migration, the Prime Minister has spoken at length about the open-border policy that this Government inherited from the previous government and about the fact that it is critical we get net migration down.”