Putin’s theatrics will fail to silence his powerful critics
Vladimir Putin’s inauguration to his fifth term as president – which will make his time in power longer than Joseph Stalin’s – was marked by much pomp, but little circumstance. Meet the new tsar, same as the old tsar.
The Russians do ceremony rather well, from the way Putin’s Aurus limousine swept past a line of Russian tricolour flags to the golden splendour of the Kremlin’s St Andrew’s Hall, packed with dignitaries.
There was a Presidential Regiment honour guard in uniforms inspired by the tsarist Imperial Guard, and a religious blessing by Patriarch Kirill of Moscow at the Cathedral of the Annunciation.
Putin appeared bored. Perhaps this is no surprise. After all, it was not only his fifth inauguration, but also an irrelevant one. The March election, which saw the 71-year-old claiming 87 per cent of the vote, was comprehensively rigged, and this was simply the final act in a piece of cynical political theatre.
In his perfunctory speech on swearing the oath of office before a new six-year term, he led with thanks to those “fighting for the Motherland“, and promised that “we will get through these difficult times, and be successful”. There was no sense of when or how.
There is, however muted, disquiet in Russia. For many ordinary Russians, life goes on much as usual, but there is impatience for the war to end.
While Putin offers vague promises that there will be a victory someday, this is not enough.
If anything, the mood was even more sombre among the dignitaries who filed into St Andrew’s Hall to pay their respects. They are much more aware of the long-term costs of the war, and how far Putin is mortgaging the future of the country for an imperial adventure purely of his making.
Yet it is hard to see Putin doing anything decisive to address the challenges facing him and Russia, and his inauguration speech did not hint at any new course.
There may be a renewed summer offensive, but as he is still reluctant to take the politically dangerous step of a new mobilisation, it is unlikely to have a major impact on the war.
Meanwhile, the economy risks overheating, and public services are showing the strain of under-investment, but as he is both unable to win the war and unwilling to negotiate a just peace, there is little Putin can do about this.
Nor is he proving able to win over or intimidate the West. Current military exercises, which include the simulated use of tactical nuclear weapons, have been framed as a response to Western “threats”, but in his speech, Putin tried to balance his usual warnings to Nato to back away from Ukraine with vague suggestions that Russia was open to “strategic dialogue” – if it was treated as an equal.
Putin’s next step is to announce his new government, and although there is little expectation there will be any major reshuffle, it will give us a further sense of whether he agrees there is any need for a change of direction – and whether he dares take it.
After all, Putin is a cautious politician who, especially now, is uncomfortable with any churn at the top of his ageing government.
Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is a personal friend, but has also turned out to be a dismal wartime manager.
He is looking especially vulnerable following the arrest of one of his deputy ministers on corruption charges – but will Putin grasp the nettle and see him replaced?
Alexander Bortnikov, head of the Federal Security Service, is 72 years old and apparently ill. There are reports that for some time he has been wanting to retire, but Putin, worried about keeping a tight grip on one of the main institutions protecting him, won’t let him go.
Still, Bortnikov looks to be in a better state than Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechnya warlord reportedly suffering from serious pancreatic problems. He was at the inauguration, but needed two flunkeys to take his jacket off for him, suggesting the rumours of ill-health are real.
Nonetheless, Putin has held back from even hinting at replacing Kadyrov, presumably worried about potentially triggering more instability in the already unruly North Caucasus at a time when his army is fully engaged in Ukraine.
In his blessing, Patriarch Kirill told Putin that a president sometimes “has to take fateful, formidable decisions”. Maybe even he was suggesting that Putin needs to do more than just keep calm and carry on.
Dr Mark Galeotti is the author of Putin’s Wars: from Chechnya to Ukraine, published by Osprey
