All of Suella Braverman’s claims on asylum seekers and migration from her US speech, fact-checked
During a speech at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC on Tuesday, Home Secretary Suella Braverman called for drastic reform of the international asylum system, claiming it is no longer fit for purpose.
She suggested that the majority of migrants were exploiting the current laws in order to choose where they wanted to live, rather than seeking shelter due to persecution or war.
Ms Braverman also said that being gay or a woman should not be enough to qualify for refugee status – seeking to draw a distinction between persecution and discrimination.
Railing at the current “outdated” system, she described the number of displaced people in the world an “epoch-defining challenge” that threatened the future of Western civilisation. Ms Braverman also refused to rule out leaving the 1951 Refugee Convention, and said international leaders had “collectively failed” to modernise global migration laws.
Here, i breaks down some of the key claims, facts and figures from the speech.
Claim: “When signed, the refugee convention conferred protection on 2 million people – it now confers a notional right to move to another country on at least 780 million people.“
True or False: Misleading
This data was published by former adviser to Theresa May, Nick Timothy, and Karl Williams of the Centre for Policy Studies – a conservative think-tank that has previously called for “tough new policies to stop illegal Channel crossings”.
It is not known how the think-tank arrived at this figure, but it is likely to include everyone who could potentially be defined as a refugee, or possibly include every gay person who lives in a country with anti-LGBTQ+ laws.
According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the number of forcibly displaced people around the world is currently 110 million.
However, most of these people, around 62.5 million, were displaced within their own borders. Refugees fleeing to other countries account for 35.3 million people while just over five million people globally are asylum seekers, the UN said.
Official figures also state that just 1.5 per cent of the 74,751 asylum claimants in the UK last year cited their sexual orientation as the basis for their claim.
Claim: “A 2021 Gallup poll found that 16 per cent of adults worldwide – around 900 million people – would like permanently to leave their own country.“
True or False? Misleading
Ms Braverman framed this figure of 900 million as being a concern because of the “ease with which they might reach Europe”, and the “deepening challenge” this poses.
But the Gallup poll also looked at how people in richer countries were also more likely to move abroad because they could afford to relocate for work.
The researchers behind the poll found that desire to migrate rose to decade-high levels in regions that are already well-known for sending migrants abroad: Latin America and the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, plus South East and South Asia.
But the poll, which was taken over a 10-year period from 2011, also found that the number of people from North America (Canada and the US) also rose, from 10 per cent to 15 per cent. In sub-Saharan Africa, this figure rose from 29 per cent to 37 per cent.
Claim: “The cost of the UK asylum system has roughly doubled in the last year and now stands at nearly £4bn. A decade ago [it] was around £500m.”
True or False? True
According to Government statistics, the total cost of the asylum system to the taxpayer in 2022-23 was £3.97bn – up from £2.12bn in 2021-22. In 2010-11, the cost of processing applications was £567,856,116.
Claim: “A 2014 study by UCL concluded that almost no illegal migrants end up paying in taxes what they gain from the state in benefits.”
True or False? False
The 2014 study found that European migrants to the UK were not a drain on Britain’s finances and paid out far more in taxes than they received in state benefits.
The analysis suggested that “rather than being a drain on the UK’s fiscal system, immigrants arriving since the early 2000s have made a net contributions to its public finances”.
The researchers’ conclusion also found recent immigrants are 43 per cent less likely to receive state benefits or tax credits and come from a strong educational background.
It also found that that more than 60 per cent of new migrants from western and southern Europe were university graduates.
Claim: “The British public backed the UK’s Rwanda partnership and the Government’s recent Illegal Migration Act by margins of about 2 to 1.”
True or False? Misleading
Last December the Home Secretary made the same claim in the House of Commons after the High Court first ruled the Rwanda policy is unlawful. The Supreme Court is now deciding on its verdict following a Government appeal.
The figure Ms Braverman quoted in her speech is a poll by More In Common think-tank, which released this data in April.
However, a YouGov poll last year suggested only 10 per cent of people believe deporting asylum seekers to the east African country is the best approach.
Claim: “Illegal migration is not merely an event driven or cyclical problem, it’s a permanent and structural challenge for the developed nations in general – and the West in particular.”
True or False? False
Many other countries around the world not considered to be part of “the West” are experiencing large numbers of mass migration.
According to UNHCR data, Turkey currently hosts some 3.6 million registered Syrian refugees along with close to 320,000 “persons of concern” from other nationalities.
Pakistan hosts over 1.3 million registered Afghan refugees and 427,000 people in refugee-like situations from the same country at the end of 2022.
As of February 2022, a total of 276,000 refugees and asylum seekers were registered with UNHCR in Egypt.
Claim: “It’s a fallacy that, as countries get richer, emigration from them declines.”
True or False? Misleading
Ms Braverman quoted American economist Michael Clemens in her assertion that emigration rises from a country until individual income per capita reaches more than $10,000.
The 2022 Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report states that nearly half the world’s population – over three billion people – lives on less than $6.85 per day, which is the average of the national poverty lines of upper-middle income countries.
But the research found that while emigration from poorer countries reverses at $10,000, it begins to slow at around the $5,000 per capita mark.
In short, it’s a mixed picture. According to the report, sustained economic growth in low-income countries is “therefore likely to raise the emigration rate, at least in the short-term…as incomes rise, so too does people’s ability to afford the investments that make migration easier”, the study suggested.
Claim: “The unprecedented rise in small boat crossings to the UK from France…has put unsustainable pressure on the asylum system and British taxpayer.”
True or False? Jury’s out
Labour has argued the Government’s “disastrous” handling of the asylum applications backlog is to blame for the “unsustainable” pressure on the system.
Home Office figures show 80 per cent of asylum seekers wait more than six months for an initial decision. A total of 175,457 people were waiting for an initial decision by the end of June – the highest figure since records began.
In August, the number of people who had crossed the Channel in small boats in the past five years passed 100,000.
