Sunak’s leadership on the line as Tory right decides whether to block Rwanda laws
Rishi Sunak’s leadership is on the line as Conservative MPs decide whether to vote down his flagship Rwanda emergency laws.
Five factions on the Tory right will unite for a crunch meeting at noon on Monday at which a “star chamber” of legal experts will rule that the laws are not hardline enough to save the Rwanda deportation deal after it was ruled unlawful by judges.
Sources in the Tory European Research Group (ERG), which is hosting the meeting, said “all options will be discussed”, including voting down the emergency laws on Tuesday, in what would be a hammer blow to Mr Sunak’s premiership.
Just 29 MPs need to vote against the legislation to kill it off and the threat from the Tory right factions – which have been given the Mafia-style “five families” nickname by some – will cause deep concern in No 10.
If the bill is blocked on Tuesday it would be the first time at a second reading stage since 1986. It would imperil the PM’s leadership and lead to calls for a general election.
Senior Tory MP Sir Charles Walker told i Mr Sunak should call an election if the laws are voted down.
Former attorney general Dominic Grieve said right-wing MPs were correct to suggest the legislation leaves the scheme open to legal challenge at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), but that the bill could not be made any tougher, as it would force Rwanda to abandon the deal.
Referring to Monday’s “five families” summit, a former minister on the right said it was “hard to tell” which way MPs would lean and that senior figures like Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman “hold lots of sway”, while acknowledging abstention still remained “more likely”.
Allies of Mr Jenrick, who quit as immigration minister last week in protest at the laws, said he has not yet decided whether to abstain or vote against after revealing on Sunday he “won’t be supporting this bill” because it is so “weak” it will leave the Rwanda scheme subject to ongoing individual legal challenges.
He could reveal his decision when he addresses a later meeting of the New Conservatives faction at 6pm.
While most expect Tory rebels to abstain in Tuesday’s vote, Labour MP Chris Bryant highlighted the dilemma facing right-wingers as they lack the numbers to amend the Bill at later stages in the New Year because they will not get backing from Labour.
Their “only option” is therefore to block it on Tuesday if they want tougher laws because Labour and other opposition parties will also vote against it, he said.
The One Nation caucus of Tory moderates will also meet on Monday evening and is considering all options, including abstaining or voting against the laws amid concerns about breaking international law and deeming Rwanda “safe”. Although moderates are not realistically expected to oppose the Safety of Rwanda Bill, it further ramps up the pressure on Mr Sunak over the vote.
A Government source said ministers are willing to consider olive branch amendments to give greater “confidence” to potential rebels over their concerns, but warned that Mr Sunak will not agree to either watering down the bill or toughening it up.
“We are talking to colleagues, but we are confident this bill is extremely robust and makes the routes for any individual challenge vanishing small,” the source said.
“This is the strongest possible piece of legislation to get Rwanda operational.”
Writing for i, Sir Charles Walker said that in the event the bill is overturned, Mr Sunak should call an election “to spare us and the country another leadership contest”.
“If the thought of a third leadership contest in this Parliament leaves me cold, it will most likely cause the country frostbite,” he said.
However, Cabinet minister Michael Gove insisted the laws were “tough and robust” and stressed ministers were “not contemplating” an election if they lose Tuesday’s vote.
Tory ex-attorney general Dominic Grieve said the legislation does, as some Tories fear, leave open the likelihood of legal challenges.
But he backed No 10’s argument that toughening up the laws would lead to Rwanda pulling out of the scheme for fear of losing aid payments and other adverse consequences.
“It’s not going to get better than this,” Mr Grieve told right-wing MPs.
“There’s something absurd about the Jenrick/Braverman position because they are asking for something that won’t allow the policy to go forward anyway.”
Mr Grieve gave Mr Sunak a boost by saying a separate new treaty with Rwanda “might actually get past the Supreme Court”.
But he added: “It is right that … there is a risk of legal challenge, just as there is a risk of a declaration of incompatibility with the Human Rights Act and ECHR and eventually a case will go to Strasbourg.
“The policy can be criticised on that basis, and some people say the policy is ill-founded in its entirety, and he [Mr Sunak] has inherited it from Priti Patel and he should have jacked it.”
An ERG source dismissed suggestions Rwanda could pull out if the laws are made tougher as “No 10 spin”.
